Human impacts on fire occurrence: a case study of hundred years of forest fires in a dry alpine valley in Switzerland

Forest fire regimes are sensitive to alterations of climate, fuel load, and ignition sources. We investigated the impact of human activities and climate on fire occurrence in a dry continental valley of the Swiss Alps (Valais) by relating fire occurrence to population and road density, biomass removal by livestock grazing and wood harvest, temperature and precipitation in two distinct periods (1904–1955 and 1956–2006) using generalized additive modeling. This study provides evidence for the role played by humans and temperature in shaping fire occurrence. The existence of ignition sources promotes fire occurrence to a certain extent only; for example, high road density tends to be related to fewer fires. Changes in forest uses within the study region seem to be particularly important. Fire occurrence appears to have been negatively associated with livestock pasturing in the forest and wood harvesting, in particular during the period 1904–1955. This study illustrates consistently how fire occurrence has been influenced by land use and socioeconomic conditions. It also suggests that there is no straightforward linear relationship between human factors and fire occurrence.     

Impacts of interannual climate variability on past and future forest composition

Numerous analyses of the possible impacts of future climatic changes on tree species composition have been published for both lowland and high-elevation forests. Most of these studies were based on the application of forest "gap" models, and the vast majority of them considered only changes in the average of climatic parameters over time. In this study, we use a unique data set on reconstructed past climatic variations to analyse forest dynamics simulated by the forest gap model ForClim. This analysis forms the basis for a systematic exploration of the ecological effects of changing means vs. changing variability of climate on central European forests. A reconstruction of historical climate covering the last 470 years in the Swiss lowlands (ClimIndex) is extrapolated to a transect across the alpine (cold) treeline and used to simulate the influence of climate variations on the time scale of decades on forest biomass and tree species composition at both sites. While the simulation at the low-elevation site shows little sensitivity to climate variations, the results from upper subalpine forests suggest that two major dieback events would have occurred at elevations above the current but below the climatic tree line, induced by clusters of exceptionally cold summers. The results are in agreement with available dendrochronological data and with documentary evidence on massive negative impacts on flora and fauna at high elevations during these periods. We conclude that ForClim is capable of capturing the effects on tree population dynamics of climate variability at these sites as reconstructed from the ClimIndex record. A factorial design is used to address the sensitivity of ForClim to changes of the long-term averages vs. changes of the variability of monthly temperature and precipitation data. To this end, the simulated tree species composition of near-natural forests is examined along a climate gradient in Europe. The results indicate that there are three types of forest response: (1) little sensitivity to both kinds of change, (2) strong sensitivity to changes in the means, but little sensitivity to changing variability, and (3) strong sensitivity to changing variability at least in parts of the examined climate space. Half of the cases investigated fall under the third category, suggesting that emphasis should be placed on also assessing the sensitivity of ecosystems to future changes in climate variability rather than on changes of average values alone. Electronic Publication     

Sensitivity of a forest ecosystem model to climate parametrization schemes

An analysis of the climate parametrization scheme adopted by conventional forest gap models revealed that most models assume a constant climate and are difficult to calibrate consistently. Tree growth showed unrealistically sensitive threshold effects along ecological gradients of temperature and precipitation. A new parametrization was compared with its predecessors in terms of the model's capability to predict realistic steady state species compositions at three test sites in the Alps. Applying the new model variant ForClim to some climate-change scenarios suggests that forest gap models are highly sensitive to climate pametrizations, regardless of the realism with which they simulate forests for the current climate. Moreover, the precision of climate scenarios based on General Circulation Models (GCM), for example, falls short of ForClim's sensitivity. Climate-dependent processes in forest gap models should be rehearsed before these models are used in impact studies of climatic change.     

Sensitivity of stand dynamics to grazing in mixed Pinus sylvestris and Quercus pubescens forests: A modelling study

Only recently, studies of forest succession have started to include the effects of browsing by wild or domestic ungulates. We aim to contribute to this topic by analysing the influence of goat grazing on the long-term coexistence of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) in the low-elevation forests of an inner-Alpine dry valley. The forest gap model ForClim was first adapted to these site conditions by examining the site-dependent sensitivity of the model with regard to the species-specific parameterisation of the drought tolerance as well as the light demand of establishing and adult trees. In a second step, the behaviour of the model was investigated with respect to different grazing intensities and species-specific browsing susceptibilities. The last step was the application of a grazing scenario based on forest history, with 150 years of heavy browsing (by goats) at the beginning of the simulated forest succession, followed by less intensive grazing pressure.     

The impact of climate change and its uncertainty on carbon storage in Switzerland

Projected future climate change will alter carbon storage in forests, which is of pivotal importance for the national carbon balance of most countries. Yet, national-scale assessments are largely lacking. We evaluated climate impacts on vegetation and soil carbon storage for Swiss forests using a dynamic vegetation model. We considered three novel climate scenarios, each featuring a quantification of the inherent uncertainty of the underlying climate models. We evaluated which regions of Switzerland would benefit or lose in terms of carbon storage under different climates, and which abiotic factors determine these patterns. The simulation results showed that the prospective carbon storage ability of forests depends on the current climate, the severity of the change, and the time required for new species to establish. Regions already prone to drought and heat waves under current climate will likely experience a decrease in carbon stocks under prospective ‘extreme’ climate change, while carbon storage in forests close to the upper treeline will increase markedly. Interestingly, when climate change is severe, species shifts can result in increases in carbon stocks, but when there is only slight climate change, climate conditions may reduce growth of extant species while not allowing for species shifts, thus leading to decreases in carbon stocks.     

Analyzing the carbon dynamics of central European forests: comparison of Biome-BGC simulations with measurements

Biogeochemical models are often used for making projections of future carbon dynamics under scenarios of global change. The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of the process-based biogeochemical model Biome-BGC for application in central European forests from the lowlands to upper treeline as a pre-requisite for environmental impact assessments. We analyzed model behavior along an altitudinal gradient across the alpine treeline, which provided insights on the sensitivity of simulated average carbon pools to changes in environmental factors. A second set of tests included medium-term (30 years) simulations of carbon fluxes, and a third set of tests focused on daily carbon and water fluxes. Model results were compared to aboveground biomass measurements, leaf area index recordings as well as net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and actual evapotranspiration (AET) measurements. The simulated medium-term forest growth agreed well with measured data. Also daily NEE fluxes were simulated adequately in most cases. Problems were detected when simulating ecosystems close to the upper timberline (overestimation of measured growth and pool sizes), and when simulating daily AET fluxes (overestimation of measured fluxes). The results showed that future applications of Biome-BGC could benefit much from an improvement of model algorithms (e.g., the Q₁₀ model for respiration) as well as from a detailed analysis of the ecological significance of crucial parameters (e.g., the canopy water interception coefficient).     

Impacts of business-as-usual management on ecosystem services in European mountain ranges under climate change

Mountain forests provide a multitude of services beyond timber production. In a large European project (ARANGE—Advanced multifunctional forest management in European mountain RANGEs), the impacts of climate change and forest management on ecosystem services (ES) were assessed. Here, we provide background information about the concept that was underlying the ARANGE project, and its main objectives, research questions, and methodological approaches are presented. The project focused on synergies and trade-offs among four key ES that are relevant in European mountain ranges: timber production, carbon storage, biodiversity conservation, and protection from gravitational natural hazards. We introduce the concept and selection of case study areas (CSAs) that were used in the project; we describe the concept of representative stand types that were developed to provide a harmonized representation of forest stands and forest management in the CSAs; we explain and discuss the climate data and climate change scenarios that were applied across the seven CSAs; and we introduce the linker functions that were developed to relate stand- and landscape-scale forest features from model simulations to ES provisioning in mountain forests. Finally, we provide a brief overview of the Special Feature, with an attempt to synthesize emerging response patterns across the CSAs.     

Quantifying disturbance effects on vegetation carbon pools in mountain forests based on historical data

Although the terrestrial carbon budget is of key importance for atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, little is known on the effects of management and natural disturbances on historical carbon stocks at the regional scale. We reconstruct the dynamics of vegetation carbon stocks and flows in forests across the past 100 years for a valley in the eastern Swiss Prealps using quantitative and qualitative information from forest management plans. The excellent quality of the historical information makes it possible to link dynamics in growing stocks with high-resolution time series for natural and anthropogenic disturbances. The results of the historical reconstruction are compared with modelled potential natural vegetation. Forest carbon stock at the beginning of the twentieth century was substantially reduced compared to natural conditions as a result of large scale clearcutting lasting until the late nineteenth century. Recovery of the forests from this unsustainable exploitation and systematic forest management were the main drivers of a strong carbon accumulation during almost the entire twentieth century. In the 1990s two major storm events and subsequent bark beetle infestations significantly reduced stocks back to the levels of the mid-twentieth century. The future potential for further carbon accumulation was found to be strongly limited, as the potential for further forest expansion in this valley is low and forest properties seem to approach equilibrium with the natural disturbance regime. We conclude that consistent long-term observations of carbon stocks and their changes provide rich information on the historical range of variability of forest ecosystems. Such historical information improves our ability to assess future changes in carbon stocks. Further, the information is vital for better parameterization and initialization of dynamic regional scale vegetation models and it provides important background for appropriate management decisions.     

Predicting long-term development of abandoned subalpine conifer forests in the Swiss National Park

In the past 35 years, various kinds of dynamic models have been used to study vegetation development during primary or secondary succession. Typically, one specific model or models with the same conceptual background were employed. It remains largely unknown to what extent such model-based findings, e.g., on the speed of succession, depend on the specific model approach.To address this issue, we estimated the time elapsing during secondary succession in subalpine conifer forests of the Swiss National Park using three models of different conceptual background: (i) a forest gap model, (ii) a Markov chain model, and (iii) a minimum spanning tree model.Starting from a 95- to 125-year-old mountain pine (Pinus montana Miller) forest, all three models predicted a similar successional development. Even though the forest gap model and the Markov chain model are based on totally different approaches and were calibrated using different data sets, they both forecasted that it would take 500–550 years to reach a late-successional forest stage. The minimum spanning tree model, which only reveals a certain number of time steps yielding a minimum time estimate, showed a development of tree density (stems/ha) that was similar to the results of the forest gap model, but a strict quantitative comparison is not feasible.Our study shows that modeling forest development using three different approaches is quite powerful to obtain a robust estimate of the speed of forest succession. In our case, this estimate is higher than what has been suggested in previous studies that investigated secondary forest succession. The use of several approaches allows for a more comprehensive analysis in terms of variables covered (e.g., relative forest cover in the Markov approach vs. stand-scale species composition in the forest gap model). We recommend that in studies focusing on the speed of succession, several models should be employed simultaneously to identify inconsistencies in our knowledge and to increase confidence in the results.