北极苔原和森林地区的稳定性及脆弱性与社会和环境变化

北极苔原带和北方森林(北部地区)因其分布广阔并远离农业土地利用变化及工业发展的影响,而一度被认为是地球上最后的净土.但如今这些地区如同地球上任何别的地区一样,也正经受着环境和社会变化的影响.本文总结了北部地区在全球系统中所起的作用,并提出方案以便对导致该地区对社会和环境变化敏感的那些因子进行评价.     

Geographic variations in anthropogenic drivers that influence the vulnerability and resilience of social-ecological systems

Across the circumpolar North large disparities in the distribution of renewable and nonrenewable resources, human population density, capital investments, and basic residential and transportation infrastructure combine to create recognizable hotspots of recent and foreseeable change. Northern Fennoscandia exemplifies a relatively benign situation due to its current economic and political stability. Northern Russia is experiencing rapid, mostly negative changes reflecting the general state of crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union. North America enjoys a relatively stable regulatory structure to mitigate environmental degradation associated with industry, but is on the verge of approving massive new development schemes that would significantly expand the spatial extent of potentially affected social-ecological systems. Institutional or regulatory context influences the extent to which ecosystem services are buffered against environmental change. With or without a warming climate, certain geographic areas appear especially vulnerable to damages that may threaten their ability to supply goods and services in the near future. Climate change may exacerbate this situation in some places but may offer opportunities to enhance resilience in the long term.     

Resilience and vulnerability of northern regions to social and environmental change

The arctic tundra and boreal forest were once considered the last frontiers on earth because of their vast expanses remote from agricultural land-use change and industrial development. These regions are now, however, experiencing environmental and social changes that are as rapid as those occurring anywhere on earth. This paper summarizes the role of northern regions in the global system and provides a blueprint for assessing the factors that govern their sensitivity to social and environmental change.     

Challenges for food system adaptation today and tomorrow

Global environmental change presents both old and new challenges. A far more systematic application of existing science in the entire food chain is essential to meet future food needs. While this is daunting enough in itself, new questions present themselves through changing food habits and global environmental change. The immediate challenge is to adapt plant, animal and food systems to changing temperature, nutrient and water conditions. To develop sustainable food systems in the long term, the paper discusses a set of considerations such as food demand response, resource efficiency, GHG emission limits and provisions to reduce vulnerability. Finally, some factors are presented to reframe the nature of food systems: multifunctionality, globalisation, food and fuel prices, consumer behaviour and state support to food production.     

Exploring changes in Ecuadorian land use for food production and their effects on natural resources

A model is used for the dynamic and spatially explicit exploration of near future agricultural land-use changes. In a case study for Ecuador, different plausible scenarios are formulated, taking into account possible developments in national food demand until the year 2010. The protection of nature parks and restrictions due to land degradation are evaluated with respect to their possible spatial impacts on the land-use change dynamics within the country. Under the assumptions of the demand scenarios, agricultural land-use expands significantly, resulting in more use of land in existing agricultural areas and frontier-type expansion into relatively undisturbed natural areas. The patterns of change depend on the increase in demand, competition between land-use types, changes in driving factors of land use, and the area and characteristics of land that is excluded from agricultural use. The modelled land-use dynamics are related to their possible impacts on the natural resource base, specifically soil fertility. The results indicate potential negative effects of land-use changes on the soil nutrient balance and biodiversity. It is argued that spatial and temporal quantification of land-use dynamics at the landscape level can support research and policies aimed at understanding the driving factors of land-use change and the behaviour of complex agro-ecosystems under changing conditions at different scales. In this way, issues dealing with sustainable food production and the management of the natural resource base can be addressed in a more integrated and quantitative manner.     

Managing climate change impacts to enhance the resilience and sustainability of Fennoscandian forests

Projected warming in Sweden and other Fennoscandian countries will probably increase growth rates of forest trees near their northern limits, increase the probability of new pest outbreaks, and foster northerly migration of both native and exotic species. The greatest challenges for sustainable forestry are to restore and enhance the ecological and socioeconomic diversity of intensively managed forested landscapes. With appropriate management, climate warming may facilitate the regeneration of this diversity. Experimental transplant gardens along latitudinal or altitudinal gradients and high-resolution maps of expected future climate could provide a scientific basis for predicting the climate response of potential migrant species. Management of corridors and assisted migration could speed the movement of appropriate species.     

Managing Alaska’s National Parks in an era of uncertainty: an evaluation of scenario planning workshops

Regional Environmental Change - Scenario planning is a flexible tool used to assess a broad range of plausible, relevant, divergent, and challenging futures, for short-term responses and long-term...     

人为因素对社会-生态系统脆弱性和恢复力影响的地理差异

横跨北极的地区,可更新资源和不可更新资源、人口密度、资产投资、住宅与交通基础设施的分布存在着很大差异,这些差异被公认为是研究当前和未来社会-生态系统变化的热点.由于当前政治和经济的稳定,芬诺斯堪的亚地区北部社会-生态系统呈现出相对良好的形势,而俄罗斯北部从苏联解体开始便一直经历着急速且消极的变化,这些变化反映了俄罗斯普遍存在的危机状态.北美洲虽然处在一个相对稳定有序的制度下,采取了一些措施用于防止和减轻与工业有关的环境退化,但大多即将出台的新发展计划仍将会显著扩大社会-生态系统受到潜在影响的空间范围.制度或管理条款与生态系统服务功能对环境变化的缓冲能力紧密相关.无论气候是否变暖,某些地理区域对外来破坏作用表现得特别脆弱,这有可能威胁到这些区域在将来提供产品和服务的能力.尽管某些地区的气候变化有可能会使这种形势恶化,但从长远来看,气候变化也有可能会使其恢复力得到加强.