Assessing agricultural systems vulnerability to climate change to inform adaptation planning: an application in Khorezm,Uzbekistan

Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change. The current vulnerability assessments through traditional fragmented sectoral methods are insufficient to capture the effects on complex agricultural systems. Therefore, the traditional methods need to be replaced by integrated approaches. The objective of this study is to propose a holistic vulnerability assessment method for agricultural systems. By aggregating both agro-ecological and socio-economic information, we develop an agricultural systems vulnerability index (ASVI) which allows for (i) a classification of geographical units according to their vulnerability level, (ii) an identification of key determinants of vulnerability for each unit and (iii) an assessment of adaptation policy scenarios considering their effects on the sustainability of the analysed systems. The proposed method is applied in the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan—a representative irrigated agricultural region in the lower Amu Darya river basin. A decision support tool is used to facilitate multi-criteria decision analysis, including the computation of the index and performing sensitivity analysis of the results. The assessment for Khorezm reveals significant spatial differences of vulnerability levels due to a variation of contributing factors, e.g. natural resources, water productivity, rural-urban ratio. It reveals also that feasible land and water management policies could reduce the vulnerability in Khorezm, particularly in the districts with the poorest agro-ecological conditions. Overall, the proposed method could support national and local authorities in the identification of sustainable adaptation policies for the agriculture sector.     

Integrated water resources management (IWRM) for climate change adaptation

Regional Environmental Change -     

A multicriteria approach for mapping risks of agricultural pollution for water resources: The Venice Lagoon watershed case study

A multicriteria analysis system was developed for producing risk maps of agricultural pollution due to alternative cultivation systems in the Watershed of the Lagoon of Venice (WLV) in Italy. Results of a field-scale simulation model for agricultural diffuse pollution were used to compile a matrix of environmental impacts, in terms of pollution indices. The most widespread combinations of typical environments (as defined by combinations of soil and climate variables) and alternative land uses (types of crops and cultivation systems) were described in the impact matrix. Land use in terms of crop distribution was based on census data. Two alternative cultivation systems were defined on the basis of the recent changes to the European Common Agricultural Policy: ordinary and eco-compatible. The effects of alternative scenarios were evaluated in terms of pollution risks for water resources. The evaluation procedure was built into the framework of a geographical information system to take into account the spatial features of pollution phenomena, vulnerability of the land and risk for water resources. The results demonstrated the great potential of eco-compatible practices for reducing the risks for surface and groundwater (−15 and −50%, respectively).     

Integrated spatial assessment of the water,energy and food dimensions of the Sustainable Development Goals

Regional Environmental Change - Water is considered the bloodstream of the biosphere, but its management is one of the most important challenges for human development. In view of the sustainable...     

An online platform supporting the analysis of water adaptation measures in the Alps

Climate change may result in reduced water supply from the Alps – an important water resource for Europe. This paper presents a multilingual platform that combines spatial and multi-criteria decision-support tools to facilitate stakeholder collaboration in the analysis of water management adaptation options. The platform has an interactive map interface that allows participants to select a location of their interest within the Alpine Arc. By utilising the decision-support tool, stakeholders can identify suitable adaptation solutions for different geographical units, according to their experience and preference. The platform was used to involve experts across Alpine borders, domains and decision-making levels, as well as a group of university students. The experts favoured the planning instruments for saving water, while the students inclined towards the measures that would improve water conservation. The initial results confirmed the suitability of the platform for future involvement of decision-makers in spatio-temporal analyses of adaptation pathways in the Alps.