What are the implications of sea-level rise for a 1.5, 2 and 3 °C rise in global mean temperatures in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna and other vulnerable deltas?

Even if climate change mitigation is successful, sea levels will keep rising. With subsidence, relative sea-level rise represents a long-term threat to low-lying deltas. A large part of coastal Bangladesh was analysed using the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model to determine changes in flood depth, area and population affected given sea-level rise equivalent to global mean temperature rises of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 °C with respect to pre-industrial for three ensemble members of a modified A1B scenario. Annual climate variability today (with approximately 1.0 °C of warming) is potentially more important, in terms of coastal impacts, than an additional 0.5 °C warming. In coastal Bangladesh, the average depth of flooding in protected areas is projected to double to between 0.07 and 0.09 m when temperatures are projected at 3.0 °C compared with 1.5 °C. In unprotected areas, the depth of flooding is projected to increase by approximately 50% to 0.21–0.27 m, whilst the average area inundated increases 2.5 times (from 5 to 13% of the region) in the same temperature frame. The greatest area of land flooded is projected in the central and north-east regions. In contrast, lower flood depths, less land area flooded and fewer people are projected in the poldered west of the region. Over multi-centennial timescales, climate change mitigation and controlled sedimentation to maintain relative delta height are key to a delta’s survival. With slow rates of sea-level rise, adaptation remains possible, but further support is required. Monitoring of sea-level rise and subsidence in deltas is recommended, together with improved datasets of elevation.

     

The Development of a GIS-based Inventory of Standing Waters in Great Britain together with a Risk-based Prioritisation Protocol

An inventory of standing waters (freshwater lakes and lochs) wasderived from Ordnance Survey digital map data at a scale of 1:50 000 and represents the most comprehensive survey of its kind for Great Britain. The inventory includes 43 738 water bodies in England, Scotland, Wales and the Isle of Man and contains basic physical data such as location, surface area, perimeter and altitude. Catchment areas were computed for water bodies with a surface area larger than 1 ha from a digital terrain model (DTM) using customised routines in a geographical information system (GIS). The resulting polygons were then used to derive catchment-related information from a variety of national datasets including population density, livestock density, land cover, solid and drift geology, meteorological data, freshwater sensitivity status, acid deposition and conservation status. Using data derived from the inventory a risk-based prioritisation protocol was developed to identify standing waters at risk of harm from acidification and eutrophication. This information is required by the Environment Agency, Scottish Environmental Protection Agency and the U.K. statutory conservation bodies to co-ordinate actions and monitor change under international, European and national legislation.     

Is shrimp farming a successful adaptation to salinity intrusion? A geospatial associative analysis of poverty in the populous Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna Delta of Bangladesh

The Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta of Bangladesh is one of the most populous deltas in the world, supporting as many as 140 million people. The delta is threatened by diverse environmental stressors including salinity intrusion, with adverse consequences for livelihood and health. Shrimp farming is recognised as one of the few economic adaptations to the impacts of the rapidly salinizing delta. Although salinity intrusion and shrimp farming are geographically co-located in the delta, there has been no systematic study to examine their geospatial associations with poverty. In this study, we use multiple data sources including Census, Landsat Satellite Imagery and soil salinity survey data to examine the extent of geospatial clustering of poverty within the delta and their associative relationships with salinity intensity and shrimp farming. The analysis was conducted at the union level, which is the lowest local government administrative unit in Bangladesh. The findings show a strong clustering of poverty in the delta, and whilst different intensities of salinization are significantly associated with increasing poverty, neither saline nor freshwater shrimp farming has a significant association with poverty. These findings suggest that whilst shrimp farming may produce economic growth, in its present form it has not been an effective adaptation for the poor and marginalised areas of the delta. The study demonstrates that there are a series of drivers of poverty in the delta, including salinization, water logging, wetland/mudflats, employment, education and access to roads, amongst others that are discernible spatially, indicating that poverty alleviation programmes in the delta require strengthening with area-specific targeted interventions.     

The Use of a GIS-based Inventory to Provide a Regional Risk Assessment of Standing Waters in Great Britain Sensitive to Acidification from Atmospheric Deposition

Previous attempts to identify regions of Britain vulnerable to acidification have used sensitivity maps based on the distributionof soils, geology, and land cover across Great Britain. Additionally, a systematic survey of freshwaters undertaken as partof the U.K. critical loads mapping programme provides a regional assessment of both sensitivity (critical loads) and, in tandem withdeposition data, potential impact (critical load exceedance). Both approaches, while useful for identifying regional patterns, do not enable estimates of the number of affected water bodies to be made. Recent EU legislation (e.g., The Water Framework Directive) requires member states to set water quality objectives for all water bodies. We developed a GIS-based inventory of standing water bodies in response to the need for legislation-driven assessments of the status of the U.K. lake population. This paper describes how the inventory can be used to assess the number of standing water bodies in Britain that are vulnerable to acid deposition (at current levels), building on the sensitivity mapping undertaken previously. Using this approach, approximately 31% of all standing waters in Great Britain (excluding the Shetlands and Orkney) larger than 0.02 ha are identified as `at risk' from acidification. Higher proportions are vulnerable in Scotland and Wales. Additionally, large numbers of standing waters in areas designated for environmental protection purposes are also vulnerable.