基于复杂系统建模的水管理政策研究进展

基于Agent的建模方法（ABSS）通过自下而上的方式，考察系统中主体的不同状态和行为特征、主体与环境的作用、主体之间的作用，来表征系统的宏观特征，是进行复杂社会环境系统分析和政策研究的重要手段，在水资源、水环境管理系统中得到了有效的应用。本文在大量文献调研的基础上，讨论了ABSS建模方法的基本原理、主要特征、系统构成、分类方法和开发工具等特征，总结了其供水系统发展、水资源分配和流域水资源管理、农业土地和水资源利用、居民用水行为、农业污染控制及人类活动的水环境影响等方面的应用，分析了其在研究内容、研究方法、研究结果等方面的发展趋势，讨论了利用该方法研究我国水资源管理和水污染控制政策的必要性和重要性。     

我国人口资源与食物问题

人口增多,耕地减少,部分地区供水不足,是我国人口与资源矛盾的基本格局。由于人口的压力,对资源实行超强度的利用,使较大范围的地区生态环境恶化,严重威胁农业生产,并成为许多地区多灾、低产、贫困的根本原因,较低的食物人均占有水平,将继续成为中国国民经济发展和人民生活水平提高的严重限制因素。增加食物,必须挖掘资源的潜力,开源与节流相结合,以内涵挖潜为主。首先是要立足现有的耕地,致力于提高单产;同时,合理开发水域、山地、草地等资源,广辟食物来源,提高非耕地资源的生产力,提高林牧渔业的发展水平。耕地应以深度开发为主,走资源节约型(节地、节水、节时、节能)的集约化道路。     

大城市的城市化发展战略和途径研究--以南京市为例

城市化从本质上是一种经济社会结构变动过程，南京市作为长江三角洲的副中心城市和江苏省省会，需要认真研究在经济全球化背景下，如何加快推进城市化进程，发挥中心城市功能，促进城市现代化和可持续发展。城市化水平的提高、大城市中心功能的加强、较为明显的城乡二元结构是南京市城市化过程中的基本特征。南京城市化的发展遇到了前所未有的机遇，江苏省已经提出了大力规划建设以南京市为中心的都市圈，并在2001、2002连续2年扩张南京市区的范围，大大加强了南京市的综合实力。南京的城市化发展主要途径在于提升城市功能，奠定城市化的经济基础；以城市空间优化为支点，以基础设施建设为引导，提高城市现代化水平；增强中心城市辐射功能．带动城乡一体的发展。推进南京城市化的进程还必须要制定一些政策和措施傲保证，如加快户籍制度和土地制度的改革、加大投资融资的力度、制定各类切实可行的规划等等。     

中国菌糠露天焚烧污染物排放时空分布特征

基于我国2000~2017年食用菌年产量数据,采用排放因子法估算了菌糠露天焚烧的污染物排放量,利用Mann-Kendall法和聚类分析法分析了排放量的时空分布特征,使用回归分析法预测了污染物的排放趋势.结果表明：（1）2000~2017年全国菌糠露天焚烧污染物排放量持续上升,PM_2.5、CO₂、CO、CH₄、NMVOCs、PAHs、NO_x、SO₂累积排放量分别为1.40×10⁶,3.48×10⁸,1.99×10⁷,8.43×10⁵,2.08×10⁶,3.00×10⁴,6.34×10⁵,8.29×10⁴t;（2）污染物排放量较高的省区包括山东、黑龙江、浙江、湖南、江苏、福建和河南,排放量较低的省区包括贵州、宁夏、天津、北京、新疆、重庆、甘肃;（3）预计2021年菌糠焚烧污染物总排放量高达4.25×10⁷t,其对生物质焚烧污染物总排放量的贡献率约为19.82%.我国菌糠露天焚烧污染物排放规模较大,应予以重点关注.     

邢台市秋季PM2.5及水溶性离子污染特征

为研究邢台市秋季PM_2.5污染特征,于2017年10月15日~11月14日在邢台市区对PM_2.5样品进行了采集,并对其中水溶性离子（包括Cl^-、NO₃^-、SO₄^2-、NH₄⁺、Ca²⁺、Na⁺、Mg²⁺、K⁺）进行了分析.结果显示,观测期间邢台市ρ（PM_2.5）平均值为（130.0±74.9）μg/m³,其中水溶性离子质量浓度为（69.8±11.4）μg/m³,占ρ（PM_2.5）的53.3%,NO₃^-、SO₄^2-和NH₄⁺为主要离子,占水溶性离子比例达到了89.7%. 当污染加重,水溶性离子质量浓度随ρ（PM_2.5）增大而升高,且NO₃^-、NH₄⁺及SO₄^2-占比亦逐渐升高,但其他离子占比随之下降,Ca²⁺尤为明显,表明ρ（PM_2.5）升高时主要受二次无机转化影响;观测期间SOR（硫转化率）与NOR（氮转化率）的平均值分别为0.36和0.25,表明秋季SO₂与NO₂转化速率较强,二次无机污染严重,另外SOR及NOR与温度及相对湿度呈正相关,且SOR对二者更为敏感;邢台市秋季PM_2.5呈弱碱性,NH₄⁺主要以（NH₄）₂SO₄和NH₄NO₃的形式存在;ρ（NO₃^-）/ρ（SO₄^2-）平均值为2.13,表明移动源对秋季大气颗粒物的来源贡献较大;PMF分析结果表明,二次转化源、燃烧源及扬尘源为邢台市秋季PM_2.5中水溶性离子的主要来源.     

Regulated emission characteristics of in-use LNG and diesel semi-trailer towing vehicles under real driving conditions using PEMS

On-road driving emissions of six liquefied natural gas(LNG) and diesel semi-trailer towing vehicles(STTVs) which met China Emission Standard IV and V were tested using Portable Emission Measurement System(PEMS) in northern China.Emission characteristics of these vehicles under real driving conditions were analyzed and proved that on-road emissions of heavy-duty vehicles(HDVs) were underestimated in the past.There were large differences among LNG and diesel vehicles, which also existed between China V vehicles and China IV vehicles.Emission factors showed the highest level under real driving conditions, which probably be caused by frequent acceleration, deceleration, and start-stop.NOx emission factors ranged from 2.855 to 20.939 g/km based on distance-traveled and 6.719–90.557 g/kg based on fuel consumption during whole tests, which were much higher than previous researches on chassis dynamometer.It was inferred from tests that the fuel consumption rate of the test vehicles had a strong correlation with NOx emission, and the exhaust temperature also affected the efficiency of Selected Catalytic Reduction(SCR) aftertreatment system, thus changing the NOx emission greatly.THC emission factors of LNG vehicles were 2.012–10.636 g/km, which were much higher than that of diesel vehicles(0.029–0.185 g/km).Unburned CH_4 may be an important reason for this phenomenon.Further on-road emission tests, especially CH_4 emission test should be carried out in subsequent research.In addition, the Particulate Number(PN) emission factors of diesel vehicles were at a very high level during whole tests, and Diesel Particulate Filter(DPF)should be installed to reduce PN emission.     

An investigation of changes in water quality throughout the drinking water production/distribution chain using toxicological and fluorescence analyses

Changes in water quality from source water to finished water and tap water at two conventional drinking water treatment plants(DWTPs) were monitored.Beside the routine water quality testing,Caenorhabditis elegans-based toxicity assays and the fluorescence excitation–emission matrices technique were also applied.Both DWTPs supplied drinking water that met government standards.Under current test conditions,both the investigated finished water and tap water samples exhibited stronger lethal,genotoxic and reprotoxic potential than the relative source water sample,and the tap water sample was more lethal but tended to be less genotoxic than the corresponding finished water sample.Meanwhile,the nearly complete removal of tryptophan-like substances and newly generated tyrosine-like substances were observed after the treatment of drinking water,and humic-like substances were identified in the tap water.Based on these findings,toxic pollutants,including genotoxic/reproductive toxicants,are produced in the drinking water treatment and/or distribution processes.Moreover,further studies are needed to clarify the potentially important roles of tyrosine-like and humic-like substances in mediating drinking water toxicity and to identify the potential sources of these contaminants.Additionally,tryptophan-like fluorescence may be adopted as a useful parameter to monitor the treatment performance of DWTPs.Our observations provided insights into the importance of utilizing biotoxicity assays and fluorescence spectroscopy as tools to complement the routine evaluation of drinking water.     

UV/H2O2 oxidation of tri(2-chloroethyl) phosphate: Intermediate products, degradation pathway and toxicity evaluation

Tri(2-chloroethyl) phosphate (TCEP) with the initial concentration of 5 mg/L was degraded by UV/H₂O₂ oxidation process. The removal rate of TCEP in the UV/H₂O₂ system was 89.1% with the production of Cl^? and PO₄^3? of 0.23 and 0.64 mg/L. The removal rate of total organic carbon of the reaction was 48.8% and the pH reached 3.3 after the reaction. The oxidative degradation process of TCEP in the UV/H₂O₂ system obeyed the first order kinetic reaction with the apparent rate constant of 0.0025 min^?1 (R²=0.9788). The intermediate products were isolated and identified by gas chromatography-mass spectrometer. The addition reaction of HO? and H₂O and the oxidation reaction with H₂O₂ were found during the degradation pathway of 5 mg/L TCEP in the UV/H₂O₂ system. For the first time, environment risk was estimated via the “ecological structure activity relationships” program and acute and chronic toxicity changes of intermediate products were pointed out. The luminescence inhibition rate of photobacterium was used to evaluate the acute toxicity of intermediate products. The results showed that the toxicity of the intermediate products increased with the increase of reaction time, which may be due to the production of chlorine compounds. Some measures should be introduced to the UV/H₂O₂ system to remove the highly toxic Cl-containing compounds, such as a nanofiltration or reverse osmosis unit.     

Responses of nitrification performance, triclosan resistome and diversity of microbes to continuous triclosan stress in activated sludge system

Triclosan(TCS) is commonly found in wastewater treatment plants,which often affects biological treatment processes.The responses of nitrification,antibiotic resistome and microbial community under different TCS concentrations in activated sludge system were evaluated in this study.The experiment was conducted in a sequencing batch reactor(SBR)for 240 days.Quantitative PCR results demonstrated that the abundance of ammonium oxidizing bacteria could be temporarily inhibited by 1 mg/L TCS and then gradually recovered.And the abundances of nitrite oxidizing bacteria(NOB) under 2.5 and 4 mg/L TCS were three orders of magnitude lower than that of seed sludge,which accounted for partial nitrification.When the addition of TCS was stopped,the abundance of NOB increased.The mass balance experiments of TCS demonstrated that the primary removal pathway of TCS changed from adsorption to biodegradation as TCS was continuously added into the SBR system.Moreover,TCS increased the abundance of mexB,indicating the efflux pump might be the main TCS-resistance mechanism.As a response to TCS,bacteria could secrete more protein(PN) than polysaccharide.Three-dimensional excitation-emission matrix revealed that tryptophan PN-like substances might be the main component in PN to resist TCS.High-throughput sequencing found that the relative abundances of Paracoccus,Pseudoxanthomonas and Thauera increased,which could secrete extracellular polymeric substances(EPS).And Sphingopyxis might be the main TCS-degrading bacteria.Overall,TCS could cause partial nitrification and increase the relative abundances of EPS-secreting bacteria and TCS-degrading bacteria.     

银川市冬季PM2.5重污染特征、来源与成因分析

近年来银川市冬季重污染过程频发,为明确银川市冬季PM_2.5重污染的特征,分析其主要来源及成因,于2016年12月-2017年1月在银川市选取3个采样点开展PM_2.5的样品采集与化学组分分析,利用CMB（化学质量平衡）模型对银川市冬季PM_2.5进行来源解析,对比分析了重污染日与非重污染日污染特征的差异.结果表明:①银川市冬季重污染日ρ（PM_2.5）[（181±33.6）μg/m3]是非重污染日的2.1倍;重污染日和非重污染日的ρ（NO₃-）/ρ（SO₄2-）均小于1,表明燃煤仍是银川市冬季PM_2.5的重要来源.银川市冬季PM_2.5中ρ（SOC）为（14.4±7.34）μg/m3,约占ρ（OC）的65.2%.②与非重污染日相比,重污染日人为源无机元素As、Pb、Cd和Zn质量浓度在ρ（PM_2.5）中的占比分别升高33.2%、18.4%、9.8%和2.9%,表明银川市冬季重污染主要受人为源贡献影响.③源解析结果表明,燃煤源、机动车尾气源、二次离子源和扬尘源是银川市PM_2.5的主要污染源,与非重污染日相比,重污染日机动车尾气源的贡献率明显降低.研究显示,银川市冬季重污染受人为源污染物排放的影响较大,燃煤源是银川市冬季PM_2.5的重要来源.