Sovereign financial disaster risk management: The case of Mexico

In 2006, Mexico became the first transition country to transfer part of its public-sector natural catastrophe risk to the international reinsurance and capital markets. The Mexican case is of considerable interest to highly exposed transition and developing countries, many of which are considering similar transactions. Risk financing instruments can assure governments of sufficient post-disaster capital to provide emergency response, disaster relief to the affected population and repair public infrastructure. The costs of financial instruments, however, can greatly exceed expected losses, and for this reason it is important to closely examine their benefits and alternatives. This paper analyzes the Mexican case from the perspective of the risk cedent (the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit), which was informed by analyses provided by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The rationale for a government to insure its contingent liabilities is presented along with the fiscal, legal and institutional context of the Mexican transaction. Using publicly available data, the paper scrutinizes the choice the authorities faced between two different risk-transfer instruments: reinsurance and a catastrophe bond. Making use of IIASA's catastrophe simulation model (CATSIM), this financial risk management decision is analyzed within the context of a public investment decision.     

Effect of the nitrification inhibitor dicyandiamide on microbial communities and N<Subscript>2</Subscript>O from an arable soil fertilized with ammonium sulphate

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) affects climate change as a greenhouse gas and indirectly contributes to stratospheric ozone depletion. The main source of N₂O in soils is denitrification which requires high soil moisture, carbon and nitrate. Nitrification inhibitors can be used to mitigate emissions of N₂O from soils. In Portugal, fertilisers are often applied when soils are still relatively warm and moist conditions conducive to denitrification. A Portuguese arable soil was inhibited with dicyandiamide, a nitrification inhibitor and the effect on soil microbiological activity and composition was determined after 46 days. Soils were then incubated and received carbon and ammonium under high soil water conditions and mineral N and N₂O fluxes were measured during 22 days. We found that dicyandiamide decreased microbial populations and activity, but did not alter composition. Pre-conditioning of the soil with dicyandiamide was 80% more effective in reducing fluxes of N₂O than simultaneous application with fertiliser.     

Conservation state of two paintings in the Santa Margherita cliff cave: role of the environment and of the microbial community

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The conservation of ancient paintings sited in humid environments is an actual challenge for restorers, because it needs the knowledge of the...     

Sovereign financial disaster risk management: The case of Mexico

In 2006, Mexico became the first transition country to transfer part of its public-sector natural catastrophe risk to the international reinsurance and capital markets. The Mexican case is of considerable interest to highly exposed transition and developing countries, many of which are considering similar transactions. Risk financing instruments can assure governments of sufficient post-disaster capital to provide emergency response, disaster relief to the affected population and repair public infrastructure. The costs of financial instruments, however, can greatly exceed expected losses, and for this reason it is important to closely examine their benefits and alternatives. This paper analyzes the Mexican case from the perspective of the risk cedent (the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit), which was informed by analyses provided by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The rationale for a government to insure its contingent liabilities is presented along with the fiscal, legal and institutional context of the Mexican transaction. Using publicly available data, the paper scrutinizes the choice the authorities faced between two different risk-transfer instruments: reinsurance and a catastrophe bond. Making use of IIASA's catastrophe simulation model (CATSIM), this financial risk management decision is analyzed within the context of a public investment decision.     

地下水铀污染的原位微生物还原与固定:在美国能源部田纳西橡树岭放射物污染现场的试验

总结了美国斯坦福大学和橡树岭国家实验室等在美国能源部田纳西州橡树岭综合试验基地进行的铀污染原位微生物修复阶段性试验结果.本试验利用微生物以乙醇为电子供体还原地下水和沉积物中的六价铀为不溶解的四价铀,使之原位固定化.随后通过加入溶解氧和硝酸盐来试验微生物还原后的地下水层中还原固定态铀的稳定性.通过预处理和长期间隔注入乙醇...     

Passive acoustic monitoring of the decline of Mexico's critically endangered vaquita

The vaquita (Phocoena sinus) is the world's most endangered marine mammal with approximately 245 individuals remaining in 2008. This species of porpoise is endemic to the northern Gulf of California, Mexico, and historically the population has declined because of unsustainable bycatch in gillnets. An illegal gillnet fishery for an endangered fish, the totoaba (Totoaba macdonaldi), has recently resurged throughout the vaquita's range. The secretive but lucrative wildlife trade with China for totoaba swim bladders has probably increased vaquita bycatch mortality by an unknown amount. Precise population monitoring by visual surveys is difficult because vaquitas are inherently hard to see and have now become so rare that sighting rates are very low. However, their echolocation clicks can be identified readily on specialized acoustic detectors. Acoustic detections on an array of 46 moored detectors indicated vaquita acoustic activity declined by 80% between 2011 and 2015 in the central part of the species’ range. Statistical models estimated an annual rate of decline of 34% (95% Bayesian credible interval –48% to –21%). Based on results from 2011 to 2014, the government of Mexico enacted and is enforcing an emergency 2‐year ban on gillnets throughout the species’ range to prevent extinction, at a cost of US$74 million to compensate fishers. Developing precise acoustic monitoring methods proved critical to exposing the severity of vaquitas’ decline and emphasizes the need for continual monitoring to effectively manage critically endangered species.     

How Do Groups Solve Local Commons Dilemmas? Lessons from Experimental Economics in the Field

The use of experimental settings to observe human behaviour in a controlled environment of incentives, rules and institutions, has been widely used by the behavioural sciences for sometime now, particularly by psychology and economics. In most cases the subjects are college students recruited for one to two hour decision making exercises in which, depending on their choices, they earn cash averaging US$ 20. In such exercises players face a set of feasible actions, rules and incentives (payoffs) involving different forms of social exchange with other people, and that in most cases involve some kind of externalities with incomplete contracts, such as in the case of common-pool resources situations. Depending on the ecological and institutional settings, the resource users face a set of feasible levels of extraction, a set of rules regarding the control or monitoring of individual use, and sometimes ways of imposing material or non-material costs or rewards to those breaking or following the rules. We brought the experimental lab to the field and invited about two hundred users of natural resources in three Colombian rural villages to participate in such decision making exercises and through these and other research instruments we learned about the ways they solve - or fail to - tragedies of the commons with different social institutions. Further, bringing the lab to the field allowed us to explore some of the limitations of existing models about human behaviour and its consequences for designing policies for conserving ecosystems and improving social welfare.     

PM source identification at Sunland Park, New Mexico, using a simple heuristic meteorological and chemical analysis

The causes for evening low-wind PM10 and PM2.5 peaks at Sunland Park, NM, were investigated by using wind sector analysis and by assessing relationships between PM loadings and meteorological parameters through canonical ordination analysis. Both PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations during the evening hours accounted for approximately 50% of their respective 24-hr averages, and the PM10 was mainly composed of coarse material (PM10-2.5 amounted to 77% of PM10). A wind sector analysis based on data from three surface meteorological monitoring stations in the region narrowed the potential source region for PM10 and PM2.5 to an area within a few kilometers south of Sunland Park. Canonical ordination analysis confirmed that the peak frequently occurred under stable conditions with weak southerly winds. Chemical analyses of PM showed that elemental and organic carbon (EC and OC, respectively) dominate PM2.5 and inorganic elements dominate PM10-2.5. The combined data for EC/OC, geologic elements, and various trace elements indicate that under low wind and stable conditions, traffic-related PM emissions (motor vehicle exhausts and re-suspended road dust) from the south of the site are the most likely sources for the evening PM10 and PM2.5 peaks.     

Earth stewardship: Shaping a sustainable future through interacting policy and norm shifts

Transformation toward a sustainable future requires an earth stewardship approach to shift society from its current goal of increasing material wealth to a vision of sustaining built, natural, human, and social capital—equitably distributed across society, within and among nations. Widespread concern about earth’s current trajectory and support for actions that would foster more sustainable pathways suggests potential social tipping points in public demand for an earth stewardship vision. Here, we draw on empirical studies and theory to show that movement toward a stewardship vision can be facilitated by changes in either policy incentives or social norms. Our novel contribution is to point out that both norms and incentives must change and can do so interactively. This can be facilitated through leverage points and complementarities across policy areas, based on values, system design, and agency. Potential catalysts include novel democratic institutions and engagement of non-governmental actors, such as businesses, civic leaders, and social movements as agents for redistribution of power. Because no single intervention will transform the world, a key challenge is to align actions to be synergistic, persistent, and scalable.