Analysis of the long-term behavior of solute transport with nonlinear equilibrium sorption using breakthrough curves and temporal moments

We analyzed the long-term behavior of breakthrough curves (BTCs) and temporal moments of a solute subjected to Freundlich equilibrium sorption (s = kc(n)). For one-dimensional transport in a homogeneous porous medium, we derived a power-law relation between travel time, tau, and solute displacement, chi, with the exponent being equal to the Freundlich n exponent. The mean solute velocity, derived from the first time moment, was found to change as tau(n-1). For n values larger than 0.66, the second time moment could be related to c chi(2/n), where c is a constant. An approach based on the use of a critical concentration was developed to estimate the presence of the asymptotic regime in the tail of the BTC. This approach was tested successfully using numerical case studies. One-dimensional numerical simulations with varying values of k, n and initial mass were run to verify the closed form analytical expressions for the large time behavior of temporal moments and the tailing part of breakthrough curves. Good agreement between the slope of the tailing part of log-log transformed BTCs and the predicted slope using asymptotic theory was found. Asymptotic theory in general underestimated the magnitude of the concentration in the tail. The quality of the estimated concentrations in the tail improved for small values of the dispersivity. Experimental BTCs of uranin and benazolin were analyzed in combination with sorption/desorption batch experiments using asymptotic theory. A good agreement between the value of n parameter derived from desorption experiment with benazolin and the value of the n parameter derived from the tail of the BTC was found.     

Adapting to Climate Variability and Change: Experiences from Cereal-Based Farming in the Central Rift and Kobo Valleys, Ethiopia

Small-holder farmers in Ethiopia are facing several climate related hazards, in particular highly variable rainfall with severe droughts which can have devastating effects on their livelihoods. Projected changes in climate are expected to aggravate the existing challenges. This study examines farmer perceptions on current climate variability and long-term changes, current adaptive strategies, and potential barriers for successful further adaptation in two case study regions—the Central Rift Valley (CRV) and Kobo Valley. The study was based on a household questionnaire, interviews with key stakeholders, and focus group discussions. The result revealed that about 99 % of the respondents at the CRV and 96 % at the Kobo Valley perceived an increase in temperature and 94 % at CRV and 91 % at the Kobo Valley perceived a decrease in rainfall over the last 20–30 years. Inter-annual and intraseasonal rainfall variability also has increased according to the farmers. The observed climate data (1977–2009) also showed an increasing trend in temperature and high inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. In contrast to farmers’ perceptions of a decrease in rainfall totals, observed rainfall data showed no statistically significant decline. The interaction among various bio-physical and socio-economic factors, changes in rainfall intensity and reduced water available to crops due to increased hot spells, may have influenced the perception of farmers with respect to rainfall trends. In recent decades, farmers in both the CRV and Kobo have changed farming practices to adapt to perceived climate change and variability, for example, through crop and variety choice, adjustment of cropping calendar, and in situ moisture conservation. These relatively low-cost changes in farm practices were within the limited adaptation capacity of farmers, which may be insufficient to deal with the impacts of future climate change. Anticipated climate change is expected to impose new risks outside the range of current experiences. To enable farmers to adapt to these impacts critical technological, institutional, and market-access constraints need to be removed. Inconsistencies between farmers’ perceptions and observed climate trends (e.g., decrease in annual rainfall) could lead to sub-optimal or counterproductive adaptations, and therefore must be removed by better communication and capacity building, for example through Climate Field Schools. Enabling strategies, which are among others targeted at agricultural inputs, credit supply, market access, and strengthening of local knowledge and information services need to become integral part of government policies to assist farmers to adapt to the impacts of current and future climate change.     

Linking deforestation scenarios to pollination services and economic returns in coffee agroforestry systems.

The ecological and economic consequences of rain forest conversion and fragmentation for biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and ecosystem services like protection of soils, water retention, pollination, or biocontrol are poorly understood. In human-dominated tropical landscapes, forest remnants may provide ecosystem services and act as a source for beneficial organisms immigrating into adjacent annual and perennial agro-ecosystems. In this study, we use empirical data on the negative effects of increasing forest distance on both pollinator diversity and fruit set of coffee to estimate future changes in pollination services for different land use scenarios in Sulawesi, Indonesia. Spatially explicit land use simulations demonstrate that depending on the magnitude and location of ongoing forest conversion, pollination services are expected to decline continuously and thus directly reduce coffee yields by up to 18%, and net revenues per hectare up to 14% within the next two decades (compared to average yields of the year 2001). Currently, forests in the study area annually provide pollination services worth 46 Euros per hectare. However, our simulations also revealed a potential win-win constellation, in which ecological and economic values can be preserved, if patches of forests (or other natural vegetation) are maintained in the agricultural landscape, which could be a viable near future option for local farmers and regional land use planners.     

Scenarios of bioenergy provision: technological developments in a landscape context and their social effects

While it is developing rapidly throughout Germany, bioenergy provision is open to different development opportunities. To understand the cause–effect relationships that drive bioenergy development and explore different development options and their effects on regional development, qualitative scenarios have been drafted using the Görlitz district as an example. The paper introduces the scenario method, with scenarios that are expressed in storylines. Driving forces and their relationships are thereupon reflected. The results show that the relation of the Common Agricultural Policy and Renewable Energy Act is of particular importance for future development in general. For the specific type of development in particular in rural regions, technologies are equally important, as they allow for both strongly central and highly decentralised developments. Due to an increasing diversity of options, the decision between central and decentral developments is, however, less technologically determined, but rather dependent on stakeholders’ decisions. Such stakeholders not only include stakeholders from the production sector, but also include consumers and affected parties, particularly the inhabitants whose living environment is changing rapidly. Both the landscape and society are subject to change. As a major driving force and an impacted system under change itself, social constellations must be taken into account to ensure a sustainable development under the signs of renewable energy expansion. Management tools should consider the interlinkage between landscape, energy, and social systems.     

Phthalate levels in Norwegian indoor air related to particle size fraction

Phthalates are found in numerous consumer products, including interior materials like polyvinyl chloride (PVC). Several studies have identified phthalates in indoor air. A recent case-control study demonstrated associations between allergic symptoms in children and the concentration of phthalates in dust collected from their homes. Here we have analyzed the content of selected phthalates in particulate matter (PM): PM(10) and PM(2.5) filter samples collected in 14 different indoor environments. The results showed the presence of the phthalates di-n-butyl phthalate (DBP), butyl benzyl phthalate (BBP), dicyclohexyl phthalate (DCHP) and diethyl hexyl phthalate (DEHP) in the samples. The dominating phthalate in both PM(10) and PM(2.5) samples from all locations was DBP. More than a 10-fold variation in the mean concentration of total phthalates between sampling sites was observed. The highest levels of total phthalates were detected in one children's room, one kindergarten, in two primary schools, and in a computer room. The relative contribution of total phthalates in PM(10) and PM(2.5) was 1.1 +/- 0.3% for both size fractions. The contribution of total phthalates in PM(2.5) to total phthalates in PM(10) ranged from 23-81%, suggesting different sources. Of the phthalates that were analyzed in the PM material, DBP was found to be the major phthalate in rubber from car tyres. However, our analyses indicate that tyre wear was of minor importance for indoor levels of both DBP as well as total phthalates. Overall, these results support the notion that inhalation of indoor PM contributes to the total phthalate exposure.     

Variability in crop yields associated with climate anomalies in China over the past three decades

We used simple and explicit methods, as well as improved datasets for climate, crop phenology and yields, to address the association between variability in crop yields and climate anomalies in China from 1980 to 2008. We identified the most favourable and unfavourable climate conditions and the optimum temperatures for crop productivity in different regions of China. We found that the simultaneous occurrence of high temperatures, low precipitation and high solar radiation was unfavourable for wheat, maize and soybean productivity in large portions of northern, northwestern and northeastern China; this was because of droughts induced by warming or an increase in solar radiation. These climate anomalies could cause yield losses of up to 50 % for wheat, maize and soybeans in the arid and semi-arid regions of China. High precipitation and low solar radiation were unfavourable for crop productivity throughout southeastern China and could cause yield losses of approximately 20 % for rice and 50 % for wheat and maize. High temperatures were unfavourable for rice productivity in southwestern China because they induced heat stress, which could cause rice yield losses of approximately 20 %. In contrast, high temperatures and low precipitation were favourable for rice productivity in northeastern and eastern China. We found that the optimum temperatures for high yields were crop specific and had an explicit spatial pattern. These findings improve our understanding of the impacts of extreme climate events on agricultural production in different regions of China.