Thailand’s economic growth and structural development projections in the context of environmental control

Projections for 20 years of economic growth and change in the structure of the Thai economy were made for 180 sectors using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to compare the following four scenarios: (1) standard growth with infinite supply of factors, (2) finite land supply, (3) fixed use of agricultural chemicals, and (4) combined finite land supply with fixed use of agricultural chemicals. The computable projections suggest that the economic cost of hypothetical environmental control in agriculture is small and further weakened by urbanization. The computed structural development points to efficiency improvements specific to sectors to return the economy to balanced growth.