A Satisficing Framework for Environmental Policy Under Model Uncertainty

We propose a novel framework for the economic assessment of environmental policy. Our main point of departure from existing work is the adoption of a satisficing, as opposed to optimizing, modeling approach. Along these lines, we place primary emphasis on the extent to which different policies meet a set of goals at a specific future date instead of their performance vis-a-vis some intertemporal objective function. Consistent to the nature of environmental policymaking, our model takes explicit account of model uncertainty. To this end, the decision criterion we propose is an analog of the well-known success-probability criterion adapted to settings characterized by model uncertainty. We apply our criterion to the climate-change context and the probability distributions constructed by Drouet et al. (2015) linking carbon budgets to future consumption. Insights from computational geometry facilitate computations considerably and allow for the efficient application of the model in high-dimensional settings.

     

Forest Health Assessment and Monitoring – Issues for Consideration

Part of this paper has been prepared for the lecture Forest Health Assessment-Criteria,Methods and Problems given by the author at the UIMPuniversity course Sanidad Forestal en el Bosques Mediterraneos yTemplados. Implicacion de la Contaminacion Atmosferica y del Cambio Global, held in Valencia, Spain, October, 1995. Assessment and monitoring of forest health representsa key point for environmental policy and for the management ofenvironmental resources. With the renewed interest in assessment andmonitoring of forest health generated by the suspected occurrence ofa widespread forest decline in Europe and North America, manyactivities have been undertaken: however, some questions should beconsidered and clarified when attempting to estimate forest health.Particularly, the objective(s) of the assessment and monitoringprogram should be carefully identified. Identification of a program‘stask has a number of implications and consequences: it implies adefinition of what concept of forest health (forest ecosystem health,forest health or forest trees health?) is assumed, what will be thetarget entity to be monitored, and therefore the identification of therelevant assessment questions and assessment endpoints.Consequences concern the definition of the spatial scale (frominternational to landscape and plot scale monitoring) and ecologicalcoverage (from single species population to population ofecosystems) of the program, which can have a considerable influenceon the choice of the proper sampling strategy and tactic, as well ason the most suitable methods, indicators and indices to be used.Although much of the work in the field of forest health and airpollution has concentrated on surveys on crown transparency anddiscoloration, there is an entire range of methods, indicators andindices developed to assess the health status of forests. The decisionas to which ones should be used will depend on the aim of theprogram and on economic and practical considerations. A furtherconsideration concerns the time span of the program, but anydecision in this field is subject to many limitations due to difficultiesin predicting future monitoring needs. All these points should becarefully considered and implemented according to a rigorousQuality Assurance procedure since any decision will influence futurework for many years.     

BMP tests of source selected OFMSW to evaluate anaerobic codigestion with sewage sludge

The aim of this study is to characterize different types of source selected organic fraction of municipal solid waste (SS-OFMSW) in order to optimize the upgrade of a sewage sludge anaerobic digestion unit by codigestion. Various SS-OFMSW samples were collected from canteens, supermarkets, restaurants, households, fruit–vegetable markets and bakery shops. The substrates characterization was carried out getting traditional chemical–physical parameters, performing elemental analysis and measuring fundamental anaerobic digestion macromolecular compounds such as carbohydrates, proteins, lipids and volatile fatty acids. Biochemical methane potential (BMP) tests were conducted at mesophilic temperature both on single substrates and in codigestion regime with different substrates mixing ratios. The maximum methane yield was observed for restaurant (675 NmlCH₄/gVS) and canteens organic wastes (571 and 645 NmlCH₄/gVS). The best codigestion BMP test has highlighted an increase of 47% in methane production respect sewage sludge digestion.     

Last Glacial mammals in South America: a new scenario from the Tarija Basin (Bolivia)

The chronology, sedimentary history, and paleoecology of the Tarija Basin (Bolivia), one of the richest Pleistocene mammalian sites in South America, are revised here based on a multidisciplinary study, including stratigraphy, sedimentology, geomorphology, paleontology, isotope geochemistry, and ¹⁴C geochronology. Previous studies have indicated a Middle Pleistocene age for this classic locality. We have been able to obtain a series of ¹⁴C dates encompassing all the fossil-bearing sequences previously studied in the Tarija Basin. The dated layers range in age from about 44,000 to 21,000 radiocarbon years before present (BP), indicating that the Tarija fauna is much younger than previously thought. Glacial advances correlated to marine isotopic stages (MIS) 4 and 2 (ca. 62 and 20 ka BP, respectively) are also documented at the base and at the very top of the Tarija–Padcaya succession, respectively, indicating that the Bolivian Altiplano was not dry but sustained an ice cap during the Last Glacial Maximum. The results of this multidisciplinary study enable us to redefine the chronological limits of the Tarija sequence and of its faunal assemblage and to shift this paleontological, paleoclimatological, and paleoecological framework to the time interval from MIS 4 to MIS 2.     

Water monitoring and treatment for drinking purposes in 2004 tsunami affected area—Ban Nam Khem, Phang Nga, Thailand

University of Brescia and Mahidol University of Bangkok developed a project in Phang Nga province (Thailand), the most damaged by 2004 tsunami. In particular, the study, performed between April and May 2006, dealt with the surface and ground water monitoring in Ban Nam Khem village and the experimental evaluation of possible drinking treatment alternatives. The monitoring highlighted that saline content in the tsunami affected area is decreasing but still very high (conductivity presented values up to 2,600 and 6,230 microS/cm in ground and surface water, respectively); hence, advanced and complicated processes such as reverse osmosis should be adopted to treat such water for drinking purposes. Waiting for ground water salinity to assume acceptable values, activities for the reduction of its organic and microbiological contamination will be started. However, it has to be underlined that the diffusion of drinking water to a greater part of population can be obtained only through the realization of new centralised treatment plants and the improvement of existing ones (serving at the moment about 20% of inhabitants).     

A simple linear model for estimating ozone AOT40 at forest sites from raw passive sampling data

A rapid, empirical method is described for estimating weekly AOT40 from ozone concentrations measured with passive samplers at forest sites. The method is based on linear regression and was developed after three years of measurements in Trentino (northern Italy). It was tested against an independent set of data from passive sampler sites across Italy. It provides good weekly estimates compared with those measured by conventional monitors (0.85 ≤R(2)≤ 0.970; 97 ≤ RMSE ≤ 302). Estimates obtained using passive sampling at forest sites are comparable to those obtained by another estimation method based on modelling hourly concentrations (R(2) = 0.94; 131 ≤ RMSE ≤ 351). Regression coefficients of passive sampling are similar to those obtained with conventional monitors at forest sites. Testing against an independent dataset generated by passive sampling provided similar results (0.86 ≤R(2)≤ 0.99; 65 ≤ RMSE ≤ 478). Errors tend to accumulate when weekly AOT40 estimates are summed to obtain the total AOT40 over the May-July period, and the median deviation between the two estimation methods based on passive sampling is 11%. The method proposed does not require any assumptions, complex calculation or modelling technique, and can be useful when other estimation methods are not feasible, either in principle or in practice. However, the method is not useful when estimates of hourly concentrations are of interest.     

The response of soil Arthrobacter agilis lush13 to changing conditions: Transition between vegetative and dormant state

This work was aimed at studying the response of soil non-spore-forming actinobacterial strain Arthrobacter agilis Lush 13 to changing natural conditions, such as nutrient availability and the presence of degradable and recalcitrant aliphatic and aromatic substrates. The A. agilis strain Lush13 was able to degrade octane, nonane, hexadecane, benzoate, phenol, and 2,3-, 2,4-, 2,5-, 2,6-dichlorophenols, but not grew on 3,4-dichlorophenol, 2,3,4-, 2,4,5-, 2,4,6-trichlorophenol (TCP), pentachlorophenol (PCP), 2-chlorobenzoate, 3-chlorobenzoate, 3,5-dichlorobenzoate, 2,4-dichlorobenzoate. Under growth-arresting conditions due to nitrogen- or multiple starvation or recalcitrant (non-utilizable) carbon source, the studied strain preserved viability for prolonged periods (4–24 months) due to transition to dormancy in the form of conglomerated small and ultrasmall cyst-like dormant cells (CLC). Dormant cells were shown to germinate rapidly (30 min or later) after removal of starvation stress, and this process was followed by breakdown of conglomerates with the eliberation and further division of small multiple actively growing daughter cells. Results of this study shed some light to adaptive capabilities of soil arthrobacters in pure and polluted environments.     

The adaptive response of lichens to mercury exposure involves changes in the photosynthetic machinery

Lichens are an excellent model to study the bioaccumulation of heavy metals but limited information is available on the molecular mechanisms occurring during bioaccumulation. We investigated the changes of the lichen proteome during exposure to constant concentrations of mercury. We found that most of changes involves proteins of the photosynthetic pathway, such as the chloroplastic photosystem I reaction center subunit II, the oxygen-evolving protein and the chloroplastic ATP synthase β-subunit. This suggests that photosynthesis is a target of the toxic effects of mercury. These findings are also supported by changes in the content of photosynthetic pigments (chlorophyll a and b, and β-carotene). Alterations to the photosynthetic machinery also reflect on the structure of thylakoid membranes of algal cells. Response of lichens to mercury also involves stress-related proteins (such as Hsp70) but not cytoskeletal proteins. Results suggest that lichens adapt to mercury exposure by changing the metabolic production of energy.     

Illicit psychotropic substance contents in the air of Italy

Two in-field campaigns were performed in 2009 to elucidate the contents of illicit psychotropic substances in airborne particulates of Italian cities. Twenty-eight localities of eight Italian regions were investigated in winter, and further eleven sites in June (14 regions in total), thanks to contribution of Regional Environmental Agencies. Cocaine was found almost everywhere, although some sites were rural or suburban. The maximum was recorded in Milan in winter (～0.39 ng m^?3), and “high” values (up to ～0.16 ng m^?3) in other Northern cities and in Rome. Besides cocaine, three cannabinoids will be monitored, namely Δ⁹-tetrahydrocannabinol, cannabidiol and cannabinol. The three compounds often affected the air at lower extents than cocaine, and sometimes resulted absent. Cannabinol accounted for up to 90% of the total. The concentrations of illicit compounds were up to six times lower in June than in winter. This decrease was probably induced by the lowering of boundary layer height typical of winter, and by the oxidizing capacity of atmosphere, which is stronger in the warm season. Compared to n-alkanes, polynuclear aromatic compounds, nicotine, caffeine and airborne particulate, cocaine seemed to follow a peculiar behaviour; in fact, meaningful (≥0.80) Pearson (linear) regression coefficients were calculated from the corresponding concentrations only at local scale (e.g. Rome), and within just one season. Improvements of the method are needed to monitor illicit drug metabolites (e.g. benzoylecgonine, ecgonine methyl ester, 9-carboxy-11-nor-Δ⁹-tetrahydrocannabinol), heroin and semi-volatile amphetamines.     

Air pollution and forest health: toward new monitoring concepts

It is estimated that 49% of forests (17 million km(2)) will be exposed to damaging concentrations of tropospheric O(3) by 2100. Global forest area at risk from S deposition may reach 5.9 million km(2) by 2050, despite SO(2) emission reductions of 48% in North America and 25% in Europe. Although SO(2) levels have decreased, emissions of NO(x) are little changed, or have increased slightly. In some regions, the molar SO(4)/NO(3) ratio in precipitation has switched from 2/1 to near 1/1 during the past two decades. Coincidentally, pattern shifts in precipitation and temperature are evident. A number of reports suggest that forests are being affected by air pollution. Yet, the extent to which such effects occur is uncertain, despite the efforts dedicated to monitoring forests. Routine monitoring programmes provide a huge amount of data. Yet in many cases, these data do not fit the conceptual and statistical requirements for detecting status and trends of forest health, nor for cause-effect research. There is a clear need for a re-thinking of monitoring strategies.