Serial Correlation and Inter-annual Variability in Relation to the Statistical Power of Monitoring Schemes to Detect Trends in Fish Populations

We studied the effects of inter-annual variability and serial correlation on the statistical power of monitoring schemes to detect trends in biomass of bream (Abramis brama) in Lake Veluwemeer (The Netherlands). In order to distinguish between 'true' system variability and sampling variability we simulated the development of the bream population, using estimates for population structure and growth, and compared the resulting inter-annual variabilities and serial correlations with those from field data. In all cases the inter-annual variability in the field data was larger than in simulated data (e.g. for total biomass of all assessed bream sigma = 0.45 in field data, and sigma = 0.03-0.14 in simulated data) indicating that sampling variability decreased statistical power for detecting trends. Moreover, sampling variability obscured the inter-annual dependency (and thus the serial correlation) of biomass, which was expected because in this long-lived population biomass changes are buffered by the many year classes present. We did find the expected serial correlation in our simulation results and concluded that good survey data of long-lived fish populations should show low sampling variability and considerable inter-annual serial correlation. Since serial correlation decreases the power for detecting trends, this means that even when sampling variability would be greatly reduced, the number of sampling years to detect a change of 15%.year(-1) in bream populations (corresponding to a halving or doubling in a six-year period) would in most cases be more than six. This would imply that the six-year reporting periods that are required by the Water Framework Directive of the European Union are too short for the existing fish monitoring schemes.     

Emerging technologies for removing nonpoint phosphorus from surface water and groundwater: introduction

Coastal and freshwater eutrophication continues to accelerate at sites around the world despite intense efforts to control agricultural P loss using traditional conservation and nutrient management strategies. To achieve required reductions in nonpoint P over the next decade, new tools will be needed to address P transfers from soils and applied P sources. Innovative remediation practices are being developed to remove nonpoint P sources from surface water and groundwater using P sorbing materials (PSMs) derived from natural, synthetic, and industrial sources. A wide array of technologies has been conceived, ranging from amendments that immobilize P in soils and manures to filters that remove P from agricultural drainage waters. This collection of papers summarizes theoretical modeling, laboratory, field, and economic assessments of P removal technologies. Modeling and laboratory studies demonstrate the importance of evaluating P removal technologies under controlled conditions before field deployment, and field studies highlight several challenges to P removal that may be unanticipated in the laboratory, including limited P retention by filters during storms, as well as clogging of filters due to sedimentation. Despite the potential of P removal technologies to improve water quality, gaps in our knowledge remain, and additional studies are needed to characterize the long-term performance of these technologies, as well as to more fully understand their costs and benefits in the context of whole-farm- and watershed-scale P management.     

Life cycle responses of the midge Chironomus riparius to polycyclic aromatic compound exposure

During acute exposure, polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) act mainly by narcosis, but during chronic exposure the same compounds may exert sublethal life cycle effects. The aim of this study was therefore to evaluate the chronic effects of sediment spiked PACs on the emergence of the midge Chironomus riparius. Three isomer pairs were selected, and 28-day LC50 values and 50% emergence times (EMt50) were determined. Concentration-response relationships were observed for phenanthrene, acridine, phenanthridine and acridone. Anthracene and phenanthridone had no effect on total emergence, but did cause a delay in emergence. Calculated porewater LC50 values correlated well with logKow values, suggesting narcosis as mode of action. In contrast, effect concentrations for delay in emergence (EMt50) deviated from narcosis, suggesting a specific mode of action during chronic exposure. It is concluded that emergence is a powerful endpoint to detect life cycle effects of PACs on a key sediment inhabiting invertebrate.     

Farm, land, and soil nitrogen budgets for agriculture in Europe calculated with CAPRI

We calculated farm, land, and soil N-budgets for countries in Europe and the EU27 as a whole using the agro-economic model CAPRI. For EU27, N-surplus is 55 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in a soil budget and 65 kg N₂O–N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ and 67 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in land and farm budgets, respectively. NUE is 31% for the farm budget, 60% for the land budget and 63% for the soil budget. NS values are mainly related to the excretion (farm budget) and application (soil and land budget) of manure per hectare of total agricultural land. On the other hand, NUE is best explained by the specialization of the agricultural system toward animal production (farm NUE) or the share of imported feedstuff (soil NUE). Total N input, intensive farming, and the specialization to animal production are found to be the main drivers for a high NS and low NUE.     

Modelling the impact of nitrogen deposition, climate change and nutrient limitations on tree carbon sequestration in Europe for the period 1900-2050

We modelled the combined effects of past and expected future changes in climate and nitrogen deposition on tree carbon sequestration by European forests for the period 1900-2050. Two scenarios for deposition (current legislation and maximum technically feasible reductions) and two climate scenarios (no change and SRES A1 scenario) were used. Furthermore, the possible limitation of forest growth by calcium, magnesium, potassium and phosphorus is investigated. The area and age structure of the forests was assumed to stay constant to observations during the period 1970-1990. Under these assumptions, the simulations show that the change in forest growth and carbon sequestration in the past is dominated by changes in nitrogen deposition, while climate change is the major driver for future carbon sequestration. However, its impact is reduced by nitrogen availability. Furthermore, limitations in base cations, especially magnesium, and in phosphorus may significantly affect predicted growth in the future.     

氯乙酰苯胺除草剂及其降解产物在肯尼亚Nzoia流域的演变

采用气相色谱法对肯尼亚沿Nzoia河9个地点的水样和沉积物样中草不绿(也称杂草锁)(α'-氯-N-(2,6-二乙基苯基)-N-(甲氧基甲基)乙酰胺)、甲氧毒草安(α-氯6'-乙基-N-(2甲氧基-1-甲基乙基)乙酰邻甲苯胺)及它们各自环境稳定的苯胺类降解物2,6-二乙基苯胺、2-乙基-6-甲基苯胺进行分析.降解物在90%以上的沉积物样和水样中检出,而母体化合物只在不到14%的水样中检出.沉积物中的杀虫剂和它们的降解物比在水中浓度高很多(1.4～10 800倍),显示出化合物在沉积物中的积累.在研究时间内沉积物中降解物的普遍存在意味着这些化合物的持续性.可以假定在热带气候为主的条件下,促使杀虫剂快速分解为环境稳定的降解物,从而在研究区域内使后者成为比其母体更重要的污染物.     

Upgrading of organic waste: production of the copolymer poly-3-hydroxybutyrate-co-valerate by Ralstonia eutrophus with organic waste as sole carbon source

Two types of fermented organic waste (trade and industry waste and fruit and vegetable waste) were successfully used as a sole carbon source to produce poly-3-hydroxybutyrate-co-valerate (PHBV) by Ralstonia eutrophus (formerly Alcaligenes eutrophus) via oxygen limitation.The production of PHBV could be optimized by optimizing the oxygen transfer through the fermentor. Thereby, a peak concentration of 1.1 g PHBV per liter cell suspension, 40 w% of cell dry weight, was obtained at an aeration rate of 0.24 mol O₂/h·kg biomass. The yield of PHBV on the fatty acid concentration in the organic waste was 0.16 g polymer/g volatile organic matter. The process obtained, compares well with the commercial production process of PHBV based on glucose.     

Habitat type-based bioaccumulation and risk assessment of metal and As contamination in earthworms, beetles and woodlice

The present study investigated the contribution of environmental factors to the accumulation of As, Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn in earthworms, beetles and woodlice, and framed within an exposure assessment of the European hedgehog. Soil and invertebrate samples were collected in three distinct habitat types. Results showed habitat-specific differences in soil and invertebrate metal concentrations and bioaccumulation factors when normalized to soil metal concentration. Further multiple regression analysis showed residual variability (habitat differences) in bioaccumulation that could not be fully explained by differences in soil metal contamination, pH or organic carbon (OC). Therefore, the study demonstrated that in bioaccumulation studies involving terrestrial invertebrates or in risk assessment of metals, it is not sufficient to differentiate habitat types on general soil characteristics such as pH and/or OC alone. Furthermore, simple generic soil risk assessments for Cd and Cu showed that risk characterization was more accurate when performed in a habitat-specific way.     

The gloomy greenhouse: Should the world phase out fossil fuels?

In 1988 the Toronto World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere called for a reduction of CO₂ emissions of the industrialized countries by approximately 20% by the year 2005 as compared with 1988. A stabilization of CO₂ concentrations would require an eventual emissions reduction of more than 50% of present levels. Model runs were performed with the Dutch Integrated Model for the Assessment of the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) to put these figures into perspective. It was found that the suggested emissions reduction levels could indeed be adequate to prevent global temperature change from moving beyond past climate experience. However, this would only be the case when these reduced levels of emissions were achieved at a global scale and maximum emission control for the other greenhouse gases was implemented. A delayed response analysis shows that the policies of the coming decades are crucial for the eventual control of the greenhouse effect.