Modelling Temperature Trends in New Zealand

If global warming is accelerating, then one might expect temperatures for most stations to be accelerating and perhaps variability to be increasing. In this study, we examine 57 New Zealand temperature time series for evidence of non-linearity and changing variability. These correspond to time series for annual minima, annual means and annual maxima for 19 stations. Estimation is by an extended least-squares method. We find a surprising diversity of behaviour of these series – presumably reflecting their different geographic factors as well as series length. We give evidence of regions where temperatures are decreasing. For series where a linear trend is significant, it is downwards in about one third of the cases. This proportion was higher in the South Island, especially for series of minima. Where a non-linear trend is significant, temperatures are decelerating in about one half of the cases. The ratio of downward to upward trends is highest among annual maxima and South Island minima and smallest in annual means. Where a linear trend in the variability is significant, it is decreasing in 13 cases and increasing in 5 cases, although possibly this is partly due to poorer quality data last century. Where a non-linear trend in the variability is significant, variability is decelerating in about two thirds of the cases. The results are used to project upper and lower return levels of minima, means and maxima for each of the series to the year 2010.     

Estimation of Water Demand in Iran Based on SARIMA Models

The generation of synthetic, residential water demands that can reproduce essential statistical features of historical residential water consumption is essential for planning, design, and operation of water resource systems. Most residential water consumption series are seasonal and nonstationary. We employ the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fit this model to monthly residential water consumption in Iran from May 2001 to March 2010. We find that a three-parameter log-logistic distribution fits the model residuals adequately. We forecast values for 1 year ahead using the fitted SARIMA model.     

Working on the sustainability of local communities with a “community-engaged” research methodology

Abstract

The Globalism Institute at Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University in Melbourne is conducting research on local responses to globalisation across 10 local communities in seven different countries. The project's “community-engaged research methodology” was developed first in the Hamilton region in southwest Victoria, where staff from the university have been working in community partnerships for nearly 20 years. This research methodology differs from action research in that it sustains a clear distinction between the knowledge and skills of “outside” researchers and the hard-won local knowledge of community members. It is based on respectful dialogue and a clear commitment to maintain relationships for a matter of years rather than weeks. It involves the creation of “spaces for engagement” that can lead to multiple, sometimes unexpected, outcomes. It integrates a range of research methods (including surveys, story collection, strategic conversations, photo-narrative techniques, and research journals) that generate rich data to be used (subject to consent) by both community-based and university-based researchers. The research methods are linked to forms of analysis that relate local experiences to broader social processes. Community-engaged research takes time and patience but it can ensure good feedback and support mechanisms, good-quality data, locally relevant research outcomes and a process that can be convivial for all involved.     

Laboratory evidence of MTBE biodegradation in Borden aquifer material

Mainly due to intrinsic biodegradation, monitored natural attenuation can be an effective and inexpensive remediation strategy at petroleum release sites. However, gasoline additives such as methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) can jeopardize this strategy because these compounds often degrade, if at all, at a slower rate than the collectively benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and the xylene (BTEX) compounds. Investigation of whether a compound degrades under certain conditions, and at what rate, is therefore important to the assessment of the intrinsic remediation potential of aquifers. A natural gradient experiment with dissolved MTBE-containing gasoline in the shallow, aerobic sand aquifer at Canadian Forces Base (CFB) Borden (Ontario, Canada) from 1988 to 1996 suggested that biodegradation was the main cause of attenuation for MTBE within the aquifer. This laboratory study demonstrates biologically catalyzed MTBE degradation in Borden aquifer-like environments, and so supports the idea that attenuation due to biodegradation may have occurred in the natural gradient experiment. In an experiment with batch microcosms of aquifer material, three of the microcosms ultimately degraded MTBE to below detection, although this required more than 189 days (or >300 days in one case). Failure to detect the daughter product tert-butyl alcohol (TBA) in the field and the batch experiments could be because TBA was more readily degradable than MTBE under Borden conditions.     

Assessing Multi-site Drought Connections in Iran Using Empirical Copula

Drought is a multi-dimensional natural hazard with stochastic characteristics usually related to each other. Separate univariate statistical models cannot capture the important relationships among drought characteristics, that is, severity and duration. In this study, an empirical copula is employed to construct a bivariate model of droughts, where droughts are defined as continuously negative standardized precipitation index (SPI) periods with one SPI value reaching ?1 or less. Bivariate frequency analyses in terms of recurrence intervals are performed using the established empirical copula-based bivariate drought model. The inter-connection among different regions of droughts is explored by a lower tail dependence coefficient. A nonparametric estimation based on an empirical copula is employed pairwisely to calculate the lower tail dependence coefficient among stations. The proposed method is applied to six rainfall gauge stations in Iran to explore drought properties of single sites as well as the inter-connection among multi-sites. The results show that greater mean drought severity and duration are associated with the least arrival rate of drought events, which occurs at the Ahwaz station. The tail dependence analysis reveals that distance between stations is not a key parameter. Generally, the Ahwaz and Isfahan stations have the highest probability of simultaneous droughts among the six stations.     

Degradation of carbon tetrachloride in the presence of iron and sulphur containing compounds

The effect of several sulphur compounds: sodium sulphate, sodium sulphide, ferrous sulphide,pyrite and an organosulphonic acid on the kinetics of the iron (Fe °) induced degradation of carbon tetrachloride was examined under aerobic conditions. It was observed that all of the sulphur compounds investigated significantly accelerated the reaction. The mechanisms of the processes studied as well as their possible influence on the efficiency of the iron-induced dehalogenation of pollutants, both in situ and in above-ground treatment are discussed.     

Recovering from disasters: a study of livelihoods in post‐quake villages in northern Pakistan

The October 2005 earthquake in northern Pakistan severely affected the livelihoods of 1.5 million people. With the destruction of material assets and communications infrastructure, the quake had a devastating impact on people's way of life in this remote mountainous region. This paper explores livelihood revival interventions undertaken during the earthquake response, and considers how differentiated livelihood outcomes were achieved. In addressing this objective the paper examines livelihood rehabilitation schemes in terms of structural aspects, working strategies, key factors, strengths of interventions and the role of human agency in influencing livelihood trajectories of quake‐affected communities. Primary data for this study was gathered in northern Pakistan between October 2008 and January 2009. The study identifies structural shortcomings and strengths of the programmes attempting to revive the livelihoods of poor and vulnerable households. It identifies how households in two villages made the most of opportunities to improve their lives and move towards favourable outcomes.     

Bivariate Extreme Value Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature in Nigeria

Environmental Modeling & Assessment - The rising cases of floods and the onset of drought in different parts of Nigeria require urgent attention particularly because Nigeria accommodates the...