Analysis of long-term changes in the dates of seasonal phenomena in plants and insects of the Il’men Reserve as related to climatic factors

The results of monitoring the dates of the onset of flowering and leaf budding in eight herbaceous and woody plant species and the first appearance of three insect species in the Il’men Reserve (1972–2005) were processed by means of regression and correlation analyses. No significant changes in test parameters were revealed in the majority of these species. Only two early spring plants, coltsfoot (Tussilago farfara L.) and goat willow (Salix caprea L.), showed a weak tendency toward earlier flowering in the 1980s and 1990s. This is explained primarily by the absence of any significant trends in spring and summer air temperatures in the study region over the observation period. On the other hand, interannual fluctuations in the dates of plant flowering and insect appearance were well manifested not only in early spring but also in late-spring species. These fluctuations proved to depend largely on spring temperatures: in years with early and warm springs, flowering and leaf budding in plants and the appearance of first individuals in insects were recorded on significantly earlier dates.     

Fire and explosion risk assessment for large-scale oil export terminal

Now in Russian Federation and other countries large-scale oil terminals (volume of one tank exceeds 100 000 m³, total volume of tanks exceeds 300 000 m³) are designed and constructed. Therefore fire safety of such objects becomes a very important task, solution of which is hardly possible without detail fire risk assessment. This study is aimed to a solution of this problem. Potential, individual and social risks were calculated. The potential risk was defined as a frequency of occurrence of hazardous factors of fires and explosions in a given point of space (the so-called risk contours). The individual risk was defined as a frequency of injuring a given person by hazardous factors of fires and explosions. Time of presence of this person in hazardous zones (near the hazardous installation) is taken into account during calculations of the individual risk. Social risk was defined as a dependence of frequency of injuring a given number of people by hazardous factors of fires and explosions on this number. In practice the social risk is usually determined on injuring not less than 10 people.

The oil terminal under consideration includes the following main parts: crude oil storage consisting of three tanks of volume 100 000 m³ each, input crude oil pipeline of diameter 0.6 m, crude oil pumps, output crude oil pipeline of diameter 0.8 m, auxiliary buildings and facilities. The following main scenarios of tank fires have been considered: rim seal fire, pool fire on a surface of a floating roof, pool fire on a total cross-section surface of the tank, pool fire in a dyke, explosions in closed or semiclosed volumes. Fires and explosions in other parts of the terminal are also taken into account. Effects of escalation of accidents are considered.

Risk contours have been calculated both for the territory of the terminal and for the neighbouring space. The potential risk for the storage zone is near 10⁻⁴–10⁻⁵ year⁻¹, and at a distance 500 m from the terminal the potential risk values do not exceed 10⁻⁶ year⁻¹. The values of the individual risk for various categories of workers are in the range of 10⁻⁵–10⁻⁶ year⁻¹. Because of low number of the workers on the terminal and large distances to towns and villages the social risk value is negligible. These risk values are consistent with practice of the best oil companies, and fire hazard level of the terminal can be accepted as tolerable.     

浅析环境监测QC/QA过程的采样环节

对环境监测布点采样中的QC/QA以及由采样引起的误差来源做了简要分析,并对监测采样过程中QC/QA的操作提出了一些设想。     

False-negative prenatal exclusion of Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome by measurement of fetal platelet count and size

The study of the fetal platelet count and size can, according to the literature, be used for the prenatal diagnosis of the Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome (WAS). So far, no affected fetuses have been identified by this method. All pregnancies in which this method had been applied to resulted, as correctly predicted, in the birth of normal children. Here we report on a familial case of WAS where the haematological parameters failed to reveal the affected second child. Hence we assume that the platelet count and size of platelets remain normal in fetuses with WAS to the gestational age of 22 weeks and cannot be used for prenatal diagnosis.     

Has recent climate warming affected the dates of bird arrival to the Il℉men Reserve in the Southern Urals?

The results of regression and correlation analyses of long-term data (1971–2005) on the dates of arrival of 16 bird species to the Il’men State Nature Reserve (the Southern Urals) show that they have not changed in most of these birds, unlike in many countries of Europe and North America. This is explained primarily by the absence of any significant trends in the dynamics of spring air temperatures in the study region. Only the herring gull Larus argentatus and the lapwing Vanellus vanellus have shown a significant tendency to arrive earlier, while the garganey Anas querquedula has shown a tendency to arrive on later dates in the past two decades. Nevertheless, interannual fluctuations in the dates of arrival are well manifested in both early arriving species wintering in Europe and late-arriving species wintering in Africa. These fluctuations largely depend on temperature conditions in spring. As a rule, almost all species studied—from waterbirds to passerines—appear in the Il’men Reserve earlier in years with early and warm springs than in cold years. Hence, spring weather is the key factor determining the dates of arrival of migratory birds to the study region.