Overestimation of self-reported driving exposure: Results from the SHRP2 Naturalistic Driving Study

Objectives: The accuracy of self-reported driving exposure has questioned the validity of using self-reported mileage to inform research questions. Studies examining the accuracy of self-reported driving exposure compared to objective measures find low validity, with drivers overestimating and underestimating driving distance. The aims of the current study were to (1) examine the discrepancy between self-reported annual mileage and driving exposure the following year and (2) investigate whether these differences depended on age and annual mileage.

Methods: Two estimates of drivers’ self-reported annual mileage collected during vehicle installation (obtained via prestudy questionnaires) and approximated annual mileage driven (based upon Global Positioning System data) were acquired from 3,323 participants who participated in the Strategic Highway Research Program 2 (SHRP2) Naturalistic Driving Study.

Results: A Wilcoxon signed rank test showed that there was a significant difference between self-reported and annual driving exposure during participation in SHRP 2, with the majority of self-reported responses overestimating annual mileage the following year, irrespective of whether an ordinal or ratio variable was examined. Over 15% of participants provided self-reported responses with over 100% deviation, which were exclusive to participants underestimating annual mileage. Further, deviations in reporting differed between participants who had low, medium, and high exposure, as well as between participants in different age groups.

Conclusions: These findings indicate that although self-reported annual mileage is heavily relied on for research, such estimates of driving distance may be an overestimate of current or future mileage and can influence the validity of prior research that has utilized estimates of driving exposure.     

The importance of free amino acids to the energy metabolism of eggs and larvae of turbot (Scophthalmus maximus)

A study was undertaken to establish the role of free amino acids (FAA) in aerobic energy dissipation in embryos of turbot (Scophthalmus maximus) which contain an oil globule in the egg. Laboratory-reared developing eggs and larvae (15°C, 34 salinity) were measured for oxygen uptake, ammonia excretion, contents of FAA, protein, and ammonium, and volumes of yolksac and oil globule. Newly spawned eggs from different batches contained 55 to 90 nmol egg^–1 of FAA. Resorption of FAA occurred in parallel with the consumption of yolk. Resorption of the oil globule, however, occurred predominantly after hatching and mainly after yolk resorption. The combined data suggest that approximately 70% of the FAA are utilized as an energy substrate, while the rest are polymerized into body proteins. FAA become a significant energy substrate in the early egg stage and account for 100% of the aerobic energy dissipation 2 d after Fertilization then decrease to ca. 60% at the time of hatching. Lipids derived from the oil globule seem to be the main fuel after hatching and account for ca. 90% of the energy dissipation at the onset of first-feeding. Thus, the energetics of fish embryos which contain an oil globule seems to be different from those that depend exclusively on the nutritional reserves of the yolk.     

Evaluation of a real-time monitoring system for river quality — a trade-off between risk attitudes,costs, and uncertainty

Uncertainty is definitely one of the key topics in environmental assessment and management. Typically, attempts to reduce uncertainty are subject to expenses. But how to compare and trade-off expenses and the reduced uncertainty? They only seldom allow the use of a single unit. Instead, the whole analysis and decision procedure is very subjective. This paper presents one approach to handle such problems, namely the combined use of Bayesian influence diagrams, and probabilistic risk attitude analysis. The approach was used in the evaluation of three alternatives for a real time river water quality forecasting system. A trade-off analysis of risk attitudes, costs and uncertainty indicated the levels of socioeconomic utility required for investments in the respective systems, and accordingly illuminated the impact of the uncertainties involved on inference and decision-making with various risk attitudes and discount rates.