Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Critical loads for Finnish lakes: comparison of three steady-state models

Three simple steady-state water-chemistry models are used to calculate critical loads of sulfur for lakes in Finland. Because of the high concentrations of organic matter in Finnish lakes, the influence of organic anions on the calculation of critical loads has been given special attention. The first two methods are well known ion-balance methods which have been used in many previous lake-acidification studies. The third method, developed for this study, includes the numerical solution of equilibrium equations for organic anions, inorganic carbon species and inorganic monomeric aluminum. The original pH and aluminum concentration of the lakes are estimated with this model, and a method to estimate the original acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) by simulating a Gran-titration is also tested on the lake data. Uncertainty in the predictions is estimated by varying the most critical model parameters.     

Yield and grain quality of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L., cv. Drabant) exposed to different concentrations of ozone in open-top chambers

Spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L., cv. Drabant) was exposed to different concentrations of ozone in open-top chambers for two growing seasons, 1987 and 1988, at a site located in south-west Sweden. The chambers were placed in a field of commercially grown spring wheat. The treatments were charcoal-filtered air (CF), non-filtered air (NF) and non-filtered air plus extra ozone (NF(+)). In 1988, one additional ozone concentration (NF(++)) was used. Grain yield was affected by the ozone concentration of the air. Air filtration resulted in an increase in grain yield of about 7% in both years, compared to NF. The addition of ozone (NF(+), NF(++)) reduced grain yield and increased the content of crude protein of the grain in both years. Filtration of the air had no significant effect on the content of crude protein, compared to NF. The results showed a strong positive chamber effect on grain yield in the cold and wet summer of 1987. In 1988, there was no net chamber effect on grain yield. The relative differences between the CF, NF and NF(+) treatments with respect to grain yield were of the same magnitude in the two years, despite the very different weather conditions.     

The Monitoring and Risk Assessment of Zn Deposition Around a Metal Smelter in Latvia

Heavy metal concentrations in Hylocomium splendens collected around a metal smelter in Latvia showed very high concentrations of Zn (>200 g/g), and elevated concentrations of Pb (38.3 g/g) and Cu (18.3 g/g). In an attempt to better evaluate the potential toxicity of the high Zn concentrations, a serial elution method was used to determine the concentrations of zinc in intercellular, extracellular exchangeable cell wall, intracellular, and particle fractions. The intercellular Zn concentrations represent the water soluble component of the total concentrations, and were low with no clear trends. Zn concentrations in the extra- and intracellular and particle fractions decreased exponentially from the pollutant source. Intracellular Zn concentrations in moss close to the emission source are within the range considered to be potentially toxic, from other single element exposure studies. The proportion of Zn in the relatively insoluble particle fraction, which is least associated with environmental risk, was greater closer to the pollution source, reaching > 30% in the oldest Hylocomium splendens segments.     

Effects of acid rain on growth and nutrient concentrations in Scots pine and Norway spruce seedlings grown in a nutrient-rich soil

The effects of artificially applied acid precipitation on growth and nutrient concentrations of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) seedlings were investigated in a long-term acid irrigation experiment in field conditions. Seedlings of northern and southern origin were planted in boxes containing peat and composted soil rich in nutrients, and sprinkler irrigated with water acidified with nitric and sulphuric acids to pH 3 or pH 4 for periods varying from two to three and a half growing seasons during 1986-1989. Water irrigated (pH 5.4-7.6) and non-irrigated groups of seedlings were also included in the experiment. At the end of the experiment needles, main and lateral shoots and roots were collected from the seedlings for the determination of height growth and biomass partitioning, and for the analysis of S, N, Mg, P, K, Ca, Mn and Fe concentrations. The treatment effects compared to the irrigated control were studied using multivariate analyses of variance and covariance. In the pine seedlings the total dry matter production increased by 25-70% compared with the irrigated controls when the total wet deposition to the seedlings exceeded 67 kg S ha(-1) and 36 kg N ha(-1) (e.g. after two growing seasons' exposure of the pH 3 treatment). The increase was mainly due to an increase in needle dry weight (54-72% greater at pH 3) and root weight (20-65% greater at pH 3), whereas the height growth or shoot weight growth were less affected. The northern provenance pine seedlings responded more clearly to the pH 3 irrigation than the southern ones. The treatments had no consistent effects on any of the growth variables studied in the spruce seedlings, however. The pines had higher root and foliage Ca concentrations as a result of the acid irrigation, whereas in spruce, acid rain decreased the Ca concentration in needles and shoots. Root Mn and Fe concentrations were higher in both species as a result of the pH 3 treatment. A higher soil conductivity and Ca concentration resulted from the prolonged pH 3 treatment. The results strongly support the hypothesis that the long-term growth and nutrient allocation response of conifers to acid precipitation is dependent both on the tree species and on the nutritional status of the soil.