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Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.  相似文献   
3.
Concentrations of hexachlorobenzene (HCB), alpha-, beta- and gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) isomers, 6 o,p'-and p,p'-isomers of DDT and 28 PCB congeners have been measured in eleven soil samples and one lichen collected on the Eastern coast of Antarctica from 5 Russian stations. For samples with low concentrations of PCBs (range 0.20-0.41 ng g(-1) dry weight) and pesticides (0.86-4.69 ng g(-1) and 0.11-1.22 ng g(-1) dry weight for HCHs and DDTs, respectively), atmospheric long-range transport from Africa, South America or Australia was suggested as the sole source of contamination. The profile of PCB congeners was dominated by the more volatile tri-, tetra- and penta-PCBs congeners, thus supporting long-range transport hypothesis. Four samples contained moderate levels of PCBs (range 1.98-6.94 ng g(-1) dry weight) and variable concentrations of pesticides (gamma-HCH, p,p'-DDT and o,p'-DDT being the main contaminants). For samples with high concentrations of PCBs (range 90.26-157.45 ng g(-1)) and high concentrations of pesticides, the presence of high molecular weight PCB congeners such as: 153, 180, 187, 170 etc, strongly suggest a local source (biotic) of PCBs rather than atmospheric transport. It is likely that on a local scale, biotic focussing of pollutants, due to bird activities (nesting and excrement) can cause high contamination levels and become more significant than contaminant input via abiotic pathways.  相似文献   
4.
The attitudes of 190 patients who had undergone chorionic villus sampling (CVS) were assessed by means of a questionnaire. One hundred and fifty-two patients replied of whom 68 (45 per cent) were referred because of increased maternal age and in the other 84 cases the indications included previous chromosomal abnormalities, fetal sexing, DNA analysis, and biochemical analysis. One hundred and twenty-two patients had a transcervical procedure, 24 had a transabdominal, and six patients required both procedures. One hundred and forty-one patients (93 per cent) reported CVS to be a satisfactory procedure, and the same percentage thought earlier diagnosis was beneficial. Thirty-nine patients (81 per cent) reported a better experience with CVS than with a previous amniocentesis. A majority of patients (93 per cent) wished a CVS in a future pregnancy and 137 patients (97 per cent) would accept a risk of miscarriage from the procedure of twice that quoted for amniocentesis (1 per cent).  相似文献   
5.
A measure of soil P status in agricultural soils is generally required for assisting with prediction of potential P loss from agricultural catchments and assessing risk for water quality. The objectives of this paper are twofold: (i) investigating the soil P status, distribution, and variability, both spatially and with soil depth, of two different first-order catchments; and (ii) determining variation in soil P concentration in relation to catchment topography (quantified as the "topographic index") and critical source areas (CSAs). The soil P measurements showed large spatial variability, not only between fields and land uses, but also within individual fields and in part was thought to be strongly influenced by areas where cattle tended to congregate and areas where manure was most commonly spread. Topographic index alone was not related to the distribution of soil P, and does not seem to provide an adequate indicator for CSAs in the study catchments. However, CSAs may be used in conjunction with soil P data for help in determining a more "effective" catchment soil P status. The difficulties in defining CSAs a priori, particularly for modeling and prediction purposes, however, suggest that other more "integrated" measures of catchment soil P status, such as baseflow P concentrations or streambed sediment P concentrations, might be more useful. Since observed soil P distribution is variable and is also difficult to relate to nationally available soil P data, any assessment of soil P status for determining risk of P loss is uncertain and problematic, given other catchment physicochemical characteristics and the sampling strategy employed.  相似文献   
6.
"二噁英"是指具有相似化学结构和生物特征的一族化合物,分别属于三大类别:多氯代二苯并二噁英(PC-DDs),多氯代二苯并呋喃(PCDFs)以及多氯联苯(PCBs).PCDDs和PCDFs无商业目的性生产,而是在大量的人类活动中产生的.自然过程也可以产生PCDDs和PCDFs.在过去的十年里,环境立法机构和企业一起致力于减少二噁英的排放.  相似文献   
7.
Due to worldwide restrictions on polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), the demand for alternative flame retardants (AFRs), such as organophosphate flame retardants (OPFRs), novel brominated FRs (NBFRs) and hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDs), has recently increased. Little is known about human exposure to NBFRs and OPFRs and that their levels in dust have been scarcely evaluated worldwide. To increase the knowledge regarding these chemicals, we measured concentrations of five major NBFRs, ten OPFRs and three HBCD isomers in indoor dust from New Zealand homes. Dust samples were taken from living room floors (n=34) and from mattresses of the same houses (n=16). Concentrations (ngg(-1)) of NBFRs were: 1,2-bis(2,4,6-tribromophenoxy)ethane (BTBPE) (<2-175), decabromodiphenyl ethane (DBDPE) (<5-1430), 2-ethylhexyl-2,3,4,5-tetrabromobenzoate (TBB) (<2-2285) and bis(2-ethylhexyl)-3,4,5,6-tetrabromophthalate (TBPH) (<2-640). For OPFRs, concentrations (ngg(-1)) ranged between: tri-ethyl-phosphate (TEP) (<10-235), tri-n-butyl-phosphate (TnBP) (<20-7545), tris-(2-chloroethyl)-phosphate (TCEP) (<20-7605), tris-(1-chloro-2-propyl) phosphate (TCPP) (20-7615), tri-(2-butoxyethyl)-phosphate (TBEP) (50-27325), tris-(2,3-dichloropropyl)-phosphate (TDCPP) (20-16560), tri-phenyl-phosphate (TPhP) (20-35190), and tri-cresyl-phosphate (TCP) (<50-3760). HBCD concentrations fell in the range <2-4100ngg(-1). BTBPE, DBDPE, TBPH, TBEP, and TnBP showed significant positive correlation (p<0.05) between their concentrations in mattresses and the corresponding floor dust (n=16). These data were used to derive a range of plausible exposure scenarios. Although the estimated exposure is well below the corresponding reference doses (RfDs), caution is needed given the likely future increase in use of these FRs and the currently unknown contribution to human exposure by other pathways such as inhalation and diet.  相似文献   
8.
Organochlorine contaminants in hair of adolescents from Iassy, Romania   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Human hair samples (n=42) from Iassy county (Eastern Romania) collected in 2002-2003 from adolescents were analyzed for hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) isomers, p,p'-DDT and its metabolites, hexachlorobenzene (HCB), chlordane and metabolites and 5 polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners. Very low levels were found for HCB and oxychlordane (0.8 and 2.5 ng g(-1)) indicating a low usage of these pesticide formulations in the studied area. In case of HCHs, gamma-HCH isomer was measured at higher median concentrations (79 ng g(-1) hair) compared to the beta-HCH isomer (55 ng g(-1)), which generally is the most prevalent from HCHs. The DDTs profile consisted in p,p'-DDE and p,p'-DDT which levels correspond to 81% of sum DDTs. Very high median concentrations measured for p,p'-DDT (192 ng g(-1)) combined with lower values for p,p'-DDE/p,p'-DDT of 0.4 (from 0.20 to 2.0) in all hair samples suggest recent exposure to "fresh" DDT. When gender was considered, significantly higher concentrations for most of the investigated contaminants were found in girls hair compared to boys. Very high levels were found in the present study for HCHs and DDTs compared to samples from Greece, Western Europe and China. In case of PCBs, the levels found in Romanian samples were found to be in the same range compared to other previously published data.  相似文献   
9.
Landfills that generate too little biogas for economic energy recovery can potentially offset methane (CH4) emissions through biological oxidation by methanotrophic bacteria in cover soils. This study reports on the CH4 oxidation efficiency of a 10-year old landfill cap comprising a volcanic pumice soil. Surface CH4 and CO2 fluxes were measured using field chambers during three sampling intervals over winter and summer. Methane fluxes were temporally and spatially variable (?0.36 to 3044 mg CH4 m?2 h?1); but were at least 15 times lower than typical literature CH4 fluxes reported for older landfills in 45 of the 46 chambers tested. Exposure of soil from this landfill cover to variable CH4 fluxes in laboratory microcosms revealed a very strong correlation between CH4 oxidation efficiency and CH4/CO2 ratios, confirming the utility of this relationship for approximating CH4 oxidation efficiency. CH4/CO2 ratios were applied to gas concentrations from the surface flux chambers and indicated a mean CH4 oxidation efficiency of 72%. To examine CH4 oxidation with soil depth, we collected 10 soil depth profiles at random locations across the landfill. Seven profiles exhibited CH4 removal rates of 70–100% at depths <60 cm, supporting the high oxidation rates observed in the chambers. Based on a conservative 70% CH4 oxidation efficiency occurring at the site, this cover soil is clearly offsetting far greater CH4 quantities than the 10% default value currently adopted by the IPCC.  相似文献   
10.
Government agencies faced with politically controversial decisions often discount or ignore scientific information, whether from agency staff or nongovernmental scientists. Recent developments in scientific integrity (the ability to perform, use, communicate, and publish science free from censorship or political interference) in Canada, Australia, and the United States demonstrate a similar trajectory. A perceived increase in scientific‐integrity abuses provokes concerted pressure by the scientific community, leading to efforts to improve scientific‐integrity protections under a new administration. However, protections are often inconsistently applied and are at risk of reversal under administrations publicly hostile to evidence‐based policy. We compared recent challenges to scientific integrity to determine what aspects of scientific input into conservation policy are most at risk of political distortion and what can be done to strengthen safeguards against such abuses. To ensure the integrity of outbound communications from government scientists to the public, we suggest governments strengthen scientific integrity policies, include scientists’ right to speak freely in collective‐bargaining agreements, guarantee public access to scientific information, and strengthen agency culture supporting scientific integrity. To ensure the transparency and integrity with which information from nongovernmental scientists (e.g., submitted comments or formal policy reviews) informs the policy process, we suggest governments broaden the scope of independent reviews, ensure greater diversity of expert input and transparency regarding conflicts of interest, require a substantive response to input from agencies, and engage proactively with scientific societies. For their part, scientists and scientific societies have a responsibility to engage with the public to affirm that science is a crucial resource for developing evidence‐based policy and regulations in the public interest.  相似文献   
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