Goals and remedial strategies for water quality and wildlife management in a coastal lagoon--a case-study of Ringkøbing Fjord, Denmark

The aim of this work is (1) to discuss approaches and tools to set management goals using operational indicators for coastal management (i.e., indicators that are easy to measure, understand and predict) and validated predictive models and (2) to discuss remedial strategies for sustainable coastal management regarding water quality and the abundance of fish, waterfowl and large aquatic plants. These approaches are exemplified using data from Ringkøbing Fjord, Denmark, which has undergone two major regime shifts during the last decades. This work discusses the changes taken place during the period from 1980 to 2004 (when there are good empirical data). For Ringkøbing Fjord, which is a very shallow, well-oxygenated lagoon dominated by resuspension processes, we have targeted on the following operational indicators, which are meant to reflect seasonal median values for the entire defined coastal area (the ecosystem scale) and not conditions at individual sites or data from shorter time periods: Secchi depth (as a standard measure of water clarity) and chlorophyll-a concentrations (as a key measure of algal biomass). The operational indicators are regulated by a set of standard abiotic factors, such as salinity, suspended particulate matter (SPM), nutrient concentrations (N and P), coastal morphometry and water exchange. Such relationships are quantified using well-tested, general quantitative models, which illustrate how these indicators are interrelated and how they reflect fundamental aspects of coastal ecosystems. We demonstrate that the regime shift in the lagoon can be modelled and quantitatively explained and is related to changes in salinity and nutrient inflow. A very important threshold is linked to increased salinities in the lagoon. For example, when the mean annual salinity is higher than about 9.5‰, large numbers of saltwater species of clams can survive and influence the structure and function of the ecosystem in profound ways. The model also illustrates the dynamic response to changes in nutrient loading. We have presented several management strategies with the goal of keeping the Secchi depth at 2 m, which would stimulate the growth of higher aquatic plants, which are fundamental for fish production and bird abundance in the lagoon. Given the fact that the Secchi depth depends on many variable factors (temperature, TP-inflow from land, salinity, changes in biomasses of macrophytes and clams, which are accounted for in these simulations), our results indicate that in practice it will likely be very difficult to reach that goal. However, it would be realistic to maintain a Secchi depth of 1.5 m if the variability in salinity is minimized and the mean salinity is kept at about 10.2‰.     

Multi-attribute analysis of trophic state and waterfowl management in Ringkøbing Fjord,Denmark

A multi-attribute analysis by means of the general multi-attribute analysis (GMAA) decision support system was performed in order to rank different strategies for good water quality with respect to trophic state, and good conditions for waterfowl, in the lagoon Ringkøbing Fjord, Denmark. The remedial strategies included nutrient abatement and the construction of facilities to increase the water exchange between the lagoon and the sea. The analysis showed that it is essential to keep the mean annual salinity level constant, since a drastic change in salinity may cause massive destruction of the macrophyte belt with large effects on the water quality and waterfowl abundance. It may be cost-effective to build and maintain a saltwater pumping station or a second sluice to increase the seawater inflow. Further nutrient abatement may not be cost-effective, at least not on time-scales shorter than 20 years, but the utility from nutrient abatement increases if a second sluice is built additionally. However, all of the remedial strategies, except decreasing the salinity, were projected to cause rather small changes in the effect variables compared to the no action alternative.     

Biomass and number of fish impinged at a nuclear power plant by the Baltic Sea

The main aim of this study was to investigate the number and biomass of impinged fish at Forsmark Nuclear Power Plant in Sweden, located on the coast of the Baltic Sea. Of particular interest was the number of impinged individuals of the critically endangered European eel (Anguilla anguilla) which is regularly caught in the cooling system. Another aim was to determine the comparability of the results from Forsmark and results from impingement studies in other types of waters. Cross-systems studies make it possible to (1) estimate fish loss at plants where fish is not counted, and (2) to predict changes in fish loss from changes in electricity production or cooling water use. In 2010, 31,300,000 fish with a total biomass of 62,600 kg were impinged at Forsmark. In 2011, 27,300,000 fish weighing 38,500 kg were impinged. The maximum peak in total fish number and biomass occurred in spring. The most critical period for herring was in late summer and early autumn. Regarding eel, the largest impingement losses were recorded in November. The number of fish agreed with earlier established quantities of impinged fish in both freshwater and marine ecosystems. The study also estimated that 1,300 critically endangered eels could survive at Forsmark each year if a fish return system would be constructed to allow the passage of fish from the plant back to the Baltic Sea.     

Predicting future effects from nutrient abatement and climate change on phosphorus concentrations in Lake Bourget, France

Like many temperate European lakes, Lake Bourget (France) has suffered from eutrophication during the second half of the last century. Due to a remarkable restoration program, the lake has been recovering for the past 25 years after a massive decrease in total phosphorus (TP) loading. TP concentrations have decreased from about 100-120 to 20-25 μg/L. Additional efforts are, however, still required to obtain a perennially sustainable good ecological status and model parameterisation of fluxes can assist in predicting future outcomes, especially in the context of global warming. In this paper, a dynamic model (MeroLakeMab) was developed and tested with the purpose to reconstruct the loading history of Lake Bourget and to predict TP concentrations during scenarios of increased temperature, decreased water runoff and decreased P loading. Simulations suggested that the historical TP loading decrease may have been as extensive as 88%. Decreases in water discharge to Lake Bourget at magnitudes forecasted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would not affect TP concentrations notably, but marked concentration changes could, however, occur if decreases in runoff would have a strong impact on the TP loading. Increasing temperature effects on yearly mean TP concentrations in the water column would be very small compared to effects from changes in the TP loading. Predictions such as these could be instrumental for future successful lake management.