Estimating the spatio-temporal risk of disease epidemics using a bioclimatic niche model

There are presently few tools available for estimating epidemic risks from forest pathogens, and hence informing pro-active disease management. In this study we demonstrated that a bioclimatic niche model can be used to examine questions of epidemic risk in temperate eucalypt plantations. The bioclimatic niche model, CLIMEX, was used to identify regional variation in climate suitability for Mycosphaerella leaf disease (MLD), a major cause of foliage damage in temperate eucalypt plantations around the world. Using historical observations of MLD damage, we were able to convert the relative score of climatic suitability generated by CLIMEX into a severity ranking ranging from low to high, providing for the first time a direct link between risk and impact, and allowing us to explore disease severity in a way meaningful to forest managers. We determined that the ‘Compare Years’ function in CLIMEX could be used for site-specific risk assessment to identify severity, frequency and seasonality of MLD epidemics. We explored appropriate scales of risk assessment for forest managers. Applying the CLIMEX model of MLD using a 0.25° or coarser grid size to areas of sharp topographic relief frequently misrepresented the risk posed by MLD, because considerable variation occurred between individual forest sites encompassed within a single grid cell. This highlighted the need for site-specific risk assessment to address many questions pertinent to managing risk in plantations.     

Precision And Accuracy Of Pest And Pathogen Damage Assessment In Young Eucalypt Plantations

Fungal pathogens, browsing mammals, birds, insects, nutrient deficiencies, drought, frost and waterlogging are all damaging agents to plantation species. The subsequent loss in leaf tissue or reduced photosynthetic potential can reduce growth and potentially lead to tree death. The Crown Damage Index (CDI) was developed in Australia to quantify damage in young eucalypt plantations. The accuracy and precision of assessing damage at a tree level were determined to ensure the reliability, objectivity and repeatability of the CDI method. Nine assessors, with varying levels of experience, estimated damage on three plots of fifty trees each, to obtain an understanding of the subjectivity of assessing damage caused by insects (e.g. Chrysophtharta spp.) and fungal pathogens (e.g. Mycosphaerella spp.) on Eucalyptus globulus. Damage levels were measured by destructive sampling to enable direct comparisons between estimates and damage levels to be made. The most experienced assessors provided the most repeatable estimates and were generally the most accurate. The incidence of foliar necrosis was the least subjective measure while defoliation was the most subjective and the least accurate of the indices measured. All assessors, regardless of experience, were able to predict the Crown Damage Index (a combined index of all damage classes) to within 12% of measured damage levels.     

Climate adaptation in Australia’s resource-extraction industries: ready or not?

Australian resource-extraction industries—mining, fisheries and forestry—operate year-round in the natural environment with all three exposed to climate extremes and to long-term climatic change. However, the industries differ in terms of size, ownership and mobility. Although mining companies are ‘mobile,’ a commitment to a mine site makes them immobile at a location dictated by the presence of a mineral; forestry of natural and managed trees takes place in a specifically selected location that can be changed given a reasonably long time-frame and high financial investment; fishing is the last of the major hunting industries, and despite operating from fixed ports, fishers chase fish across the ocean. All three industries as employers and product providers seek a sustainable future under a changing climate but are subject to environmental variability that impacts on their activities. As each industry has historically dealt with and survived major climate impacts, they typically consider themselves to be resilient, although we illustrate in several case studies that recent climate variability significantly impacts productivity and current resilience is limited. Projected climate change and variability are likely to exacerbate impacts on these industries through new or intensified hazards. Although each industry performs risk management controls to minimize climate-related impacts, a new approach incorporating future climate projections in addition to historical experiences would better prepare each to reduce vulnerability to changing climate. We find that wholesale transformation may not be appropriate or necessary at this time for these industries, and in most cases anticipatory, incremental adaptation should be encouraged, while larger-scale changes are considered in the longer term. Additionally, to overcome some of the barriers and promote the drivers of adaptation, we suggest that a model of adaptive governance coupled with greater use of climate champions may be the most effective method for improving adaptation uptake in these industries.     

Stakeholder perspectives on the value proposition of enterprise-level natural capital accounting for three primary industries

Environment Systems and Decisions - Globally we are experiencing a decline in aggregate natural capital. Many primary industries and enterprises are highly dependent on renewable and non-renewable...