排序方式: 共有13条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
2.
3.
Alexander Baklanov Alix Rasmussen Barbara Fay Erik Berge Sandro Finardi 《Water, Air, & Soil Pollution: Focus》2002,2(5-6):43-60
The last decade progress in numericalweather prediction (NWP) modelling and studies of urbanatmospheric processes for providing meteorological data forurban air pollution forecasting is analysed on examples ofseveral European meteorological centres. Modern nested NWP models are utilising land-use databasesdown to 1 km resolution or finer, and are approaching thenecessary horizontal and vertical resolution suitable forcity scale. The recent scientific developments in the fieldof urban atmospheric physics and the growing availabilityof high-resolution urban surface characteristics datapromise further improvements of the capability of NWPmodels for this aim. A strategy to improve NWP data forthe urban air pollution forecasting is suggested. 相似文献
4.
Graphical models provide an important tool for facilitating communication between scientists, decision-makers, and statisticians—many
complicated ecological processes can be described in terms of “box-and-arrow” conceptual diagrams (e.g., Shipley in Cause
and correlation in biology: a user’s guide to path analysis, structural equations and causal inferences, Cambridge Universtiy
Press, Cambridge, 2000; Clark and Gelfand TRENDS in Ecology and Evolution 21:375–380, 2006). In particular, problems in landscape
ecology often involve modeling relationships among multiple physical and/or biological variables that may operate on differing
spatial scales (e.g., Rossi et al. in Ecol Monographs 62:277–314, 1992; Legendre et al. in Ecography 25:601–615, 2002; Overmars
et al. in Ecol Model 164:257–270, 2003; Brown and Spector in J Appl Ecol 45:1639–1648, 2008; Koniak and Noy-Meir in Ecol Model
220:1148–1158, 2008). These problems are inherently multivariate, though researchers commonly rely on univariate methods,
such as spatial regression models, to address them. In this paper, we introduce a multivariate method—graphical spatial models—that
extends path analysis to incorporate spatial autocorrelation in one or more variables in a directed graph. We show how both
exogenous and endogenous ecological processes as defined by Legendre et al. (Ecography 25:601–615, 2002) and Lichstein et al.
(Ecol Monographs 72:445–463, 2002) can be represented in a graph. Most importantly, we show how to translate graphs representing
these ecological processes into statistically estimable models. We motivate our theoretical results using an example of stream
health data from the Willamette Valley, Oregon. For these data we are interested in the spatial pattern within both riparian
land use and an index of stream health, and whether there is an association between land use and stream health, after accounting
for these spatial patterns. We use a graphical spatial model to address these ecological questions simultaneously. We find
that the health of a stream decreases as the percent of developed land within a 120-m riparian buffer increases; interestingly,
there is only evidence of spatial pattern within land use. 相似文献
5.
6.
Graphical models (alternatively, Bayesian belief networks, path analysis models) are increasingly used for modeling complex
ecological systems (e.g., Lee, In: Ferson S, Burgman M(eds) Quantative methods for conservation biology. Springer, Berlin
Heilin Heideslperk New York, pp.127–147, 2000; Borsuk et al., J Water Res Plann Manage 129:271–282, 2003). Their implementation
in this context leverages their utility in modeling interrelationships in multivariate systems, and in a Bayesian implementation,
their intuitive appeal of yielding easily interpretable posterior probability estimates. However, methods for incorporating
correlational structure to account for observations collected through time and/or space—features of most ecological data—have
not been widely studied; Haas et al. (AI Appl 8:15–27, 1994) is one exception. In this paper, an “isomorphic” chain graph
(ICG) model is introduced to account for correlation between samples by linking site-specific Bayes network models. Several
results show that the ICG preserves many of the Markov properties (conditional and marginal dependencies) of the site-specific
models. The ICG model is compared with a model that does not account for spatial correlation. Data from several stream networks
in the Willamette River valley, Oregon (USA) are used. Significant correlation between sites within the same stream network
is shown with an ICG model. 相似文献
7.
Grant E. Brown Alix C. Rive Maud C. O. Ferrari Douglas P. Chivers 《Behavioral ecology and sociobiology》2006,61(1):9-16
Prey animals often have to face a dynamic tradeoff between the costs of antipredator behavior and the benefits of other fitness-related activities such as foraging and reproduction. According to the threat-sensitive predator avoidance hypothesis, prey animals should match the intensity of their antipredator behavior to the degree of immediate threat posed by the predator. Moreover, longer-term temporal variability in predation risk (over days to weeks) can shape the intensity of antipredator behavior. According to the risk allocation hypothesis, changing the background level of risk for several days is often enough to change the response intensity of the prey to a given stimulus. As the background level of risk increases, the response intensity of the prey decreases. In this study, we tested for possible interactions between immediate threat-sensitive responses to varying levels of current perceived risk and temporal variability in background risk experienced over the past 3 days. Juvenile convict cichlids were preexposed to either low or high frequencies of predation risk (using conspecific chemical alarm cues) for 3 days and were then tested for a response to one of five concentrations (100, 50, 25, 12.5%, or a distilled water control). According to the threat-sensitive predator avoidance hypothesis, we found greater intensity responses to greater concentrations of alarm cues. Moreover, in accordance with the risk allocation hypothesis, we found that cichlids previously exposed to the high background level of risk exhibited a lower overall intensity response to each alarm cue concentration than those exposed to the low background level of risk. It is interesting to note that we found that the background level of risk over the past 3 days influenced the threshold level of response to varying concentrations of alarm cues. Indeed, the minimum stimulus concentration that evoked a behavioral response was lower for fish exposed to high background levels of predation than those exposed to low background levels of predation. These results illustrate a remarkable interplay between immediate (current) risk and background risk in shaping the intensity of antipredator responses. 相似文献
8.
Megan Dailey Alix I. Gitelman Fred L. Ramsey Steve Starcevich 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2007,14(1):55-68
Models for the analysis of habitat selection data incorporate covariates in an independent multinomial selections model (McCracken
et al. 1998) Ramsey and Usner 2003 and an extension of that model to include a persistence parameter (2003). In both cases,
all parameters are assumed to be fixed through time. Radio telemetry data collected for habitat selection studies typically
consist of animal relocations through time, suggesting the need for an extension to these models. We use a Bayesian approach
that allows for the habitat selection probabilities, persistence parameter, or both, to change with season. These extensions
are particularly important when movement patterns are expected to differ seasonally and/or when availabilities of habitats
change throughout the study period due to weather or migration. We implement and compare the models using radio telemetry
data for westslope cutthroat trout in two streams in eastern Oregon. 相似文献
9.
Mervyn Edwards Alix Edwards Josh Appleby Dean Beaumont 《Traffic injury prevention》2019,20(4):S71-S77
AbstractObjective: Although bus travel is one of the safest modes of transport, a substantial number of bus passengers in London are still injured in collision and harsh maneuver incidents, in particular emergency braking. It is not well understood how these passengers are injured. The objective was to better understand the injury mechanisms and develop countermeasures with a test and assessment procedure to prevent or mitigate these injuries.Methods: The UK national STATS19 data were used to determine the size of the problem. Data, including CCTV footage, in combination with inspection of current buses, were used to determine injury mechanisms and identify features and areas in buses associated with more injuries.An assessment system based on visual inspection was developed to encourage a reduction in the number of features associated with injury.Results: The STATS19 analysis showed that three quarters of all injured casualties occurred in incidents where there was no impact, with this proportion rising for seriously injured casualties. Overrepresentation of older females was also seen.The CCTV analysis and bus examinations highlighted issues with poorly positioned handrails, lack of compartmentalization (restraint), and objects with sharp edges and corners. It also showed that a much higher proportion of passengers seated in the area close to the middle doors and wheelchair area were injured compared to other areas of the bus. Factors contributing to this result were that this area contained more features associated with injury and that persons with reduced mobility have greater exposure in this area; that is, more vulnerable passengers currently sit in the less safe areas of the bus.Conclusions: A novel analysis of CCTV footage has enabled a better understanding of injury mechanisms for bus passengers to be developed. In combination with inspection of current buses, this has been used to develop an assessment system to improve the safety of buses in London. 相似文献
10.
Hélène Duval Laurence Michel-Calemard Marie Gonzales Philippe Loget Claire Beneteau Annie Buenerd Madeleine Joubert Marielee Denis-Musquer Alix Clemenson Anne-Laure Chesnais Sophie Blesson Isabelle De Pinieux Anne-Lise Delezoide Gheorghe Bonyhay Christine Bellanné-Chantelot Laurence Heidet Florence Dupré Sophie Collardeau-Frachon 《黑龙江环境通报》2016,36(8):744-751