Extending the environmental risk assessment for oseltamivir (Tamiflu®) under pandemic use conditions to the coastal marine compartment

In case of an avian-influenza-derived human flu pandemic, an inordinately high use of medicines over several weeks is predicted, in particular for the recommended influenza antiviral oseltamivir (Tamiflu). While the risk of oseltamivir to sewage works and freshwater bodies has already been assessed, the fact that a large percentage of the human population worldwide lives relatively close to the sea raises concern for its environmental compatibility in coastal marine waters. The potential risk of high oseltamivir use to the marine compartment is assessed in this publication, based on the 2003 European Community Technical Guidance Document (TGD) for risk assessment. Subchronic embryo–larval ecotoxicity tests with three marine invertebrates (Pomatoceros triqueter, Annelida; Mytilus edulis, Mollusca; Paracentrotus lividus, Echinodermata) and chronic growth inhibition tests with two different groups of marine microalgae (Isochrysis galbana, Haptophyta; Skeletonema costatum, Heterokontophyta) were performed with the active substance oseltamivir carboxylic acid to derive a dependable marine predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC). This was compared to a predicted environmental concentration (PEC) for oseltamivir in coastal waters, based on the worst-case freshwater PEC. The PEC/PNEC risk characterisation ratio for the marine compartment is well below 1, which in the terminology of the TGD signifies no immediate concern. Further, while oseltamivir may be persistent (P), it is not bioaccumulative (B) nor highly ecotoxic (T) and therefore not a PBT substance. In conclusion, even a high pandemic use of oseltamivir would not lead to a significant risk for the marine compartment, in confirmation of the risk assessment for sewage works and freshwaters.     

A Mathematical Model for the Effects of Fertilization on Nitrogen Concentrations in Unsaturated Soil on Blueberry Farms in Southern New Jersey

Nitrogen is commonly known as a food source for crops. However, the nitrogen compounds used in crop fertilizers, most commonly nitrate (NO₃) and ammonium (NH₄), are not widely understood. Blueberry plants do not take up these compounds as efficiently as organic nitrogen so varying amounts of leaching into the soil and groundwater will occur. A biogeochemical model consisting of ordinary and partial differential equations is implemented to computationally predict the concentrations of nitrate and ammonium in unsaturated soil of blueberry plants, specifically in the southern region of New Jersey. The model takes into account the type of soil of the region, the nitrate uptake of the plant, the water content in the roots region, the pressure heads in the soil pores, and the application rates of fertilizers containing nitrate, ammonium, and organic nitrogen. Computational simulations demonstrate that the model accounts for natural processes and, in addition, show that commonly used fertilizer application rates cause unnecessarily high concentrations of both nitrate and ammonium in the unsaturated soil level. Further, simulations show that decreasing nitrate fertilizer applications by 85.7% in annual and 91.8% in bi-annual schedules provides an optimal system for safe reapplication.     

Realities of offering advice to governments on CITES

What happens when those who provide conservation advice are required to take policy and management action based on that advice? Conservation advocates and scientists often try to prompt regulatory change that has significant implications for government without facing the challenge of managing such change. Through a case study, we placed ourselves in the role of the government of Thailand, facing obligations to seahorses (Hippocampus spp.) under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). These obligations include ensuring that its exports of seahorses do not damage wild populations. We applied a CITES-approved framework (which we developed) to evaluate the risks of such exports to 2 seahorse species. We used the framework to evaluate the pressures that put wild populations of the species at risk; whether current management mitigates the risk or offsets these pressures; and whether the species is responding as hoped to management policy. We based our analysis on information in published and grey literature, local knowledge, citizen science data, results of government research, and expert opinion. To meet CITES obligations, exports of both species would need to be prohibited until more precautionary adaptive management emerged. The risk of any exports of Hippocampus trimaculatus was above a tolerable level because of a lack of appropriate management to mitigate risks. In contrast, the risk of any exports of Hippocampus kuda could become tolerable if monitoring were put in place to assess the species’ response to management. The process we developed for Authorities to determine risk in response to CITES guidelines was challenging to implement even without the need for government to consider social implications of conservation action. Despite the imperfections of our risk evaluation, however, it still served to support adaptive management. Conservationists need to keep implementation in mind when offering advice.     

The potential of vehicle and road infrastructure interventions in fatal bicyclist accidents on Swedish roads—What can in-depth studies tell us?

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this article is to describe the characteristics of fatal crashes with bicyclists on Swedish roads in rural and urban areas and to investigate the potential of bicycle helmets and different vehicle and road infrastructure interventions to prevent them. The study has a comprehensive approach to provide road authorities and vehicle manufacturers with recommendations for future priorities.

Methods: The Swedish Transport Administration’s (STA) in-depth database of fatal crashes was used for case-by-case analysis of fatal cycling accidents (2006–2016) on rural (n?=?82) and urban (n?=?102) roads. The database consists of information from the police, medical journals, autopsy reports, accident analyses performed by STA, and witness statements. The potential of helmet use and various vehicle and road infrastructure safety interventions was determined retrospectively for each case by analyzing the chain of events leading to the fatality. The potential of vehicle safety countermeasures was analyzed based on prognoses on their implementation rates in the Swedish vehicle fleet.

Results: The most common accident scenario on rural roads was that the bicyclist was struck while cycling along the side of the road. On urban roads, the majority of accidents occurred in intersections. Most accidents involved a passenger car, but heavy trucks were also common, especially in urban areas. Most accidents occurred in daylight conditions (73%). Almost half (46%) of nonhelmeted bicyclists would have survived with a helmet. It was assessed that nearly 60% of the fatal accidents could be addressed by advanced vehicle safety technologies, especially autonomous emergency braking with the ability to detect bicyclists. With regard to interventions in the road infrastructure, separated paths for bicyclists and bicycle crossings with speed calming measures were found to have the greatest safety potential. Results indicated that 91% of fatally injured bicyclists could potentially be saved with known techniques. However, it will take a long time for such technologies to be widespread.

Conclusions: The majority of fatally injured bicyclists studied could potentially be saved with known techniques. A speedy implementation of important vehicle safety systems is recommended. A fast introduction of effective interventions in the road infrastructure is also necessary, preferably with a plan for prioritization.     

Examining adaptations to water stress among farming households in Sri Lanka’s dry zone

Climate change is increasing water scarcity in Sri Lanka. Whether these changes will undermine national-level food security depends upon the ability of the small-scale farmers that dominate rice production and the institutions that support them to overcome the challenges presented by changing water availability. Analyzing household survey data, this research identifies household, institutional, and agroecological factors that influence how water-stressed farmers are working to adapt to changing conditions and how the strategies they employ impact rice yields. Paralleling studies conducted elsewhere, we identified institutional factors as particularly relevant in farmer adaptation decisions. Notably, our research identified farmers’ use of hybrid seed varietals as the only local climate adaptation strategy to positively correlate with farmers’ rice yields. These findings provide insight into additional factors pertinent to successful agricultural adaptation and offer encouraging evidence for policies that promote plant breeding and distribution in Sri Lanka as a means to buffer the food system to climate change-exacerbated drought.     

Trends in environmental education for biodiversity conservation in Costa Rica

Costa Rica is internationally recognized for its abundant biodiversity and being a leader in the promotion of education strategies for biodiversity conservation. We interviewed staff from 16 institutions developing key environmental communication, education, and participation projects for biodiversity conservation in the country. Through content analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis and Chi-square tests, we examined the characteristics of the projects carried out by these institutions and developed a typology of four categories derived from six variables: primary audience, content, project purpose, location, scale, and facility. Then, we designed a conceptual model describing the integration of conservation and economic development in the educational projects. We found two key approaches related to this integration: vision of nature protection which aims to inform audiences of ecological concepts and focuses on schoolchildren and vision of sustainability which engages adult audiences and is management-oriented. Education for community-based environmental management may serve as a good example of educational projects which integrate conservation and economic development, implementing a vision of sustainability.     

Transforming urban planning processes and outcomes through creative methods

Inclusively delivering the sustainable development goals (SDGs) remains challenging, particularly in urban areas, where some of the most pressing concerns exist. To achieve the transformative SDG agenda, new methods are required to overcome current deficits in engagement around inclusion and equitable outcomes. Evaluating against theories of governance and inclusion, we test a mixture of digital and physical creative methods abilities to deliver co-designed solutions that influence mobility and road safety planning outcomes in East African cities. Greater inclusion led to improved interactions of citizens with decision makers, and the identification of novel, practical solutions, delivering some elements of transformation. Risks include creative methods being used to co-opt communities to official agendas, and institutional planning norms needing to adapt to respond to a wider range of stakeholders. Overall, where risks are mitigated, we recommend that using Creative Methods could localise SDG delivery, ensuring more equitable and effective outcomes from infrastructure development investments.Supplementary InformationThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01436-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Photochemical processing of aldrin and dieldrin in frozen aqueous solutions under arctic field conditions

Organochlorine (OC) contaminants are transported to the Polar Regions, where they have the potential to bioaccumulate, presenting a threat to the health of wildlife and indigenous communities. They deposit onto snowpack during winter, and accumulate until spring, when they experience prolonged solar irradiation until snowmelt occurs. Photochemical degradation rates for aldrin and dieldrin, in frozen aqueous solution made from MilliQ water, 500 μM hydrogen peroxide solution or locally-collected melted snow were measured in a field campaign near Barrow, AK, during spring-summer 2008. Significant photoprocessing of both pesticides occurs; the reactions depend on temperature, depth within the snowpack and whether the predominant phase is ice or liquid water. The effect of species present in natural snowpack is comparable to 500 μM hydrogen peroxide, pointing to the potential significance of snowpack-mediated reactions. Aldrin samples frozen at near 0 °C were more reactive than comparable liquid samples, implying that the microenvironments experienced on frozen ice surfaces are an important consideration.