Contribution of residential wood combustion to PM10 levels in Portugal

Wood is commonly used in residential combustion for heating purposes; however, it can be a major source of air pollutants, namely fine particles, volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide. Since 2004, the PM10 daily limit value has been surpassed in Portugal, and the European Commission has stated that plans and programs must be designed in order to reduce these levels. In Portugal, 18% of PM10 emissions are due to residential wood combustion, which may deeply impact the PM10 levels in the atmosphere. The main aim of this study is to investigate the impact of residential wood combustion on the air quality in Portugal. The air quality modelling system MM5/CHIMERE was applied over Portugal for a winter month, for the following three scenarios: the reference scenario, considering the actual emissions of PM10; scenario 1, where residential wood combustion emissions are not considered; and scenario 2, which takes into account a complete conversion from traditional fireplaces to certified appliances (with a 90% reduction in PM emissions). The residential wood combustion contribution to PM10 air quality concentration values during January 2007 ranges from 0 to 14 μg m^?3, with a mean contribution of 10 μg m^?3 in the Lisboa area and 6 μg m^?3 in the Porto region. Concerning the legislated values, the area where the daily average limit value (50 μg m^?3) is exceeded decreases by 46% in the simulation when residential combustion is not considered. The modelling results for scenario 2 are not significantly different from those for scenario 1. In summary, the regulation of the residential wood combustion sector is as an effective way to reduce the PM10 levels in the atmosphere as regards air quality plans and programs.     

Climate-driven changes in air quality over Europe by the end of the 21st century,with special reference to Portugal

Climate change alone may deeply impact air quality levels in the atmosphere because the changes in the meteorological conditions will induce changes on the transport, dispersion and transformation of air pollutants. The aim of this work was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the air quality over Europe and Portugal, using a reference year (year 1990) and a IPCC SRES A2 year (year 2100). The Hadley Centre global atmospheric circulation model (HadAM3P) was used to provide results for these two climatic scenarios, which were then used as synoptic forcing for the MM5-CHIMERE air quality modelling system. In order to assess the contribution of future climate change on O₃ and PM concentrations, no changes in regional emissions were assumed and only climate change forcing was considered. The modelling results suggest that the O₃ monthly mean levels in the atmosphere may increase almost 50 μg m^?3 across Europe in July under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. In Portugal, this increase may reach 20 μg m^?3. The changes of PM10 monthly average values over Europe will depend on the region. The increase in PM10 concentrations during specific months could be explained by the average reduction of the boundary layer height and wind speed.     

Air quality management in Portugal: example of needs and available tools

The Framework Directive (FWD) and the proposed Daughter Directives are the newest legislative instruments concerning a new political strategy and air quality management approach for Europe. Additionally, the member countries of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe have included the concepts of critical load and level for planning air pollution abatement strategies and as a base of international agreements concerning limitation of the emissions of air pollutants. These concepts imply an accurate knowledge about pollutants deposition fluxes. The paper describes the main needs and the tools available to define a strategy of air quality management in Portugal. Two study cases are presented: (1) extensive monitoring plan to assess the impact of an urban incinerator plant; and (2) contribution to a methodology to estimate critical levels for a coastal region in Portugal. These different approaches allowed illustrating the complexity of the implementation of an air pollution management strategy.     

Comparison of European national legislation efficiency on the reduction of air pollutant emissions

Since 1995, the Institute for Environment and Development in Portugal has obtained >300 stack samples from various point sources of Portuguese industries. A coherent database was made with the collected results. The limit values fixed by several European legal documents consulted, Portuguese, Spanish, French, Italian, and Dutch emission legislation, were applied to the Institute for Environment and Development stack sampling inventory (from 1995 to 2000) to evaluate the efficiency of these standards in promoting the control and reduction of atmospheric pollutants emissions, especially regarding nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and particulate matter. The conclusion was that the original Portuguese legislation was not restrictive enough and not very efficient regarding emissions reduction. In contrast, the Dutch and Italian legislations are quite restrictive but very efficient concerning emission control for the three pollutants analyzed. One of the outcomes of this study was the publication of a new law in Portugal regulating the emissions of atmospheric pollutants. The strategy of this emissions control law follows the conclusions found in this study including the concept of a mass flow threshold and different approaches depending on source dimension.     

Ostracoda and foraminifera as short-term tracers of environmental changes in very polluted areas: the Odiel Estuary (SW Spain)

The analysis of 17 cores collected in the Odiel Estuary (SW Spain) permits delimiting the recent evolution of this zone during the past decades and the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors on the distribution of Ostracoda and Foraminifera. In the upper estuary, the coincidence of acid waters, prolonged subaerial exposure, and coarse sediments may explain the absence or the disappearance of these microorganisms during the industrial period (1966-1985) in the major part of this area. In the lower estuary, sedimentary evolution and industrial wastes are the main factors influencing both the distribution and trends of the populations of these two groups. Finally, the main changes observed in the marine estuary are due to the sedimentary effects of the construction of two banks and the dredging of the main estuarine channel.     

Monitoring of firefighters exposure to smoke during fire experiments in Portugal

Forest fires represent a serious threat to public security in Europe due to the large burned area. Moreover, smoke pollution due to forest fire events is an important public health issue for the communities directly affected, and particularly for the personnel involved in firefighting operations. Aiming to contribute to the scientific knowledge concerning firefighters exposure to forest fires smoke, data of individual exposure to carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, volatile organic compounds, and particulate matter were obtained during experimental field fires for a group of 10 firefighters equipped with portable “in continuum” measuring devices. Measured values are very high exceeding the Occupational Exposure Standard limits, in particular for peak limit thresholds. These are the first measurements and analysis of firefighter's individual exposure to toxic gases and particles in fire smoke experiments in Europe. However, they already indicate that urgent measures to avoid these levels of exposure are needed.     

Bias Correction Techniques to Improve Air Quality Ensemble Predictions: Focus on O3 and PM Over Portugal

Five air quality models were applied over Portugal for July 2006 and used as ensemble members. Each model was used, with its original set up in terms of meteorology, parameterizations, boundary conditions and chemical mechanisms, but with the same emission data. The validation of the individual models and the ensemble of ozone (O₃) and particulate matter (PM) is performed using monitoring data from 22 background sites. The ensemble approach, based on the mean and median of the five models, did not improve significantly the skill scores due to large deviations in each ensemble member. Different bias correction techniques, including a subtraction of the mean bias and a multiplicative ratio adjustment, were implemented and analysed. The obtained datasets were compared against the individual modelled outputs using the bias, the root mean square error (RMSE) and the correlation coefficient. The applied bias correction techniques also improved the skill of the individual models and work equally well over the entire range of observed O₃ and PM values. The obtained results revealed that the best bias correction technique was the ratio adjustment with a 4-day training period, demonstrating significant improvements for both analysed pollutants. The increase in the ensemble skill found comprehends a bias reduction of 88 % for O₃, and 92 % for PM10, and also a decrease in 23 % for O₃ and 43 % for PM10 in what concerns the RMSE. In addition, a spatial bias correction approach was also examined with successful skills comparing to the uncorrected ensemble for both pollutants.     

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Land transport

Emissions from land transport, and from road transport in particular, have significant impacts on the atmosphere and on climate change. This assessment gives an overview of past, present and future emissions from land transport, of their impacts on the atmospheric composition and air quality, on human health and climate change and on options for mitigation.In the past vehicle exhaust emission control has successfully reduced emissions of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds and particulate matter. This contributed to improved air quality and reduced health impacts in industrialised countries. In developing countries however, pollutant emissions have been growing strongly, adversely affecting many populations. In addition, ozone and particulate matter change the radiative balance and hence contribute to global warming on shorter time scales. Latest knowledge on the magnitude of land transport's impact on global warming is reviewed here.In the future, road transport's emissions of these pollutants are expected to stagnate and then decrease globally. This will then help to improve the air quality notably in developing countries. On the contrary, emissions of carbon dioxide and of halocarbons from mobile air conditioners have been globally increasing and are further expected to grow. Consequently, road transport's impact on climate is gaining in importance. The expected efficiency improvements of vehicles and the introduction of biofuels will not be sufficient to offset the expected strong growth in both, passenger and freight transportation. Technical measures could offer a significant reduction potential, but strong interventions would be needed as markets do not initiate the necessary changes. Further reductions would need a resolute expansion of low-carbon fuels, a tripling of vehicle fuel efficiency and a stagnation in absolute transport volumes. Land transport will remain a key sector in climate change mitigation during the next decades.     

Procedures for estimation of modelling uncertainty in air quality assessment

The main objectives of this work focus, firstly, on a review of the current existent methodologies to estimate air quality modelling uncertainty, and, secondly, in the preparation of guidelines for modelling uncertainty estimation, which can be used by local and regional authorities responsible for air quality management. From the application exercise, it was concluded that it is possible to define a subset of statistical parameters able to reproduce the general uncertainties estimation. Concerning the quality indicators defined by EU directives, the results show that the legislated uncertainty estimation measures are ambiguous and inadequate in several aspects, mainly in what concerns the error measures for hourly and daily indicators based on the highest observed concentration. A relative error at the percentile correspondent to the allowed number of exceedances of the limit value was suggested and tested, showing that is a more robust and appropriate parameter for model performance evaluation.     

Forecasting human exposure to atmospheric pollutants in Portugal – A modelling approach

Air pollution has become one main environmental concern because of its known impact on human health. Aiming to inform the population about the air they are breathing, several air quality modelling systems have been developed and tested allowing the assessment and forecast of air pollution ambient levels in many countries. However, every day, an individual is exposed to different concentrations of atmospheric pollutants as he/she moves from and to different outdoor and indoor places (the so-called microenvironments). Therefore, a more efficient way to prevent the population from the health risks caused by air pollution should be based on exposure rather than air concentrations estimations. The objective of the present study is to develop a methodology to forecast the human exposure of the Portuguese population based on the air quality forecasting system available and validated for Portugal since 2005. Besides that, a long-term evaluation of human exposure estimates aims to be obtained using one-year of this forecasting system application. Additionally, a hypothetical 50% emission reduction scenario has been designed and studied as a contribution to study emission reduction strategies impact on human exposure.To estimate the population exposure the forecasting results of the air quality modelling system MM5-CHIMERE have been combined with the population spatial distribution over Portugal and their time-activity patterns, i.e. the fraction of the day time spent in specific indoor and outdoor places. The population characterization concerning age, work, type of occupation and related time spent was obtained from national census and available enquiries performed by the National Institute of Statistics. A daily exposure estimation module has been developed gathering all these data and considering empirical indoor/outdoor relations from literature to calculate the indoor concentrations in each one of the microenvironments considered, namely home, office/school, and other indoors (leisure activities like shopping areas, gym, theatre/cinema and restaurants). The results show how this developed modelling system can be useful to anticipate air pollution episodes and to estimate their effects on human health on a long-term basis. The two metropolitan areas of Porto and Lisbon are identified as the most critical ones in terms of air pollution effects on human health over Portugal in a long-term as well as in a short-term perspective. The coexistence of high concentration values and high population density is the key factor for these stressed areas. Regarding the 50% emission reduction scenario, the model results are significantly different for both pollutants: there is a small overall reduction in the individual exposure values of PM₁₀ (<10 μg m^?3 h), but for O₃, in contrast, there is an extended area where exposure values increase with emission reduction. This detailed knowledge is a prerequisite for the development of effective policies to reduce the foreseen adverse impact of air pollution on human health and to act on time.