A climate-change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Brazil's protected areas

Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support traditional human populations. We assessed the vulnerability to climate change of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs by combining indicators of climatic-change hazard with indicators of PA resilience (size, native vegetation cover, and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition). This combination of indicators allows the identification of broad climate-change adaptation pathways. Seventeen PAs (20,611 km²) were highly vulnerable and located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Two hundred fifty-eight PAs (756,569 km²), located primarily in Amazonia, had a medium vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado, the projected severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition drove vulnerability up, despite the generally good conservation status of PAs. Over 80% of PAs of high or moderate vulnerability are managed by indigenous populations. Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people inhabiting these PAs may be threatened. In at least 870 PAs, primarily in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or no intervention due to low climate-change hazard, high resilience status, or both. At least 20 PAs in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia should be targeted for stronger interventions (e.g., improvement of ecological connectivity), given their low resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to link vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that some of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies in the near future.     

Sampling strategies in the assessment of long‐term exposures to toxic substances in air

The decision to mitigate exposures from vapor intrusion (VI) is typically based on limited data from 24‐hour air samples. It is well documented that these data do not accurately represent long‐term average exposures linked to adverse health effects. Limited decision guidance is currently available to determine the most appropriate sampling strategy, considering the cost of sampling alternatives along with the economic consequences of exposure‐related health effects. We present a decision model that introduces economic and statistical considerations in evaluating alternative VI sampling methods. The model characterizes the best sampling method by factoring economic and health consequences of exposure, the variability of exposure, the cost of sampling and mitigation, and the likelihood of false‐negatives and false‐positives. Decision‐makers can use results to select the sample size that maximizes net benefit. Conceptual and mathematical models are presented linking biological, statistical, and economic considerations to assess the cost and effectiveness of different sampling strategies. The model relates an average exposure concentration, determined statistically, to abatement costs and to the monetary value of health deterioration. The value of the information provided by different strategies is calculated and used to select the optimum sampling method. Simulations show that longer‐term sampling methods tend to be more accurate and cost‐effective than short‐term samples. The ideal sampling strategy shows significant seasonal variation (it is typically optimal to use longer samples in the winter) and also varies significantly with the stringency of regulatory standards. Longer‐term sample collection provides a more accurate representation of average VI exposure and reduces the likelihood of type I and type II errors. This reduces expected costs of mitigation and exposure (e.g., health consequences, legal and regulatory penalties), which in some cases can be quite significant. The model herein shows how these savings are balanced against the additional costs of longer‐term sampling.     

金属加工过程中应力状态的分析方法

分析简单地拉伸、压缩和扭转的情况时,应力状态能容易地被确定.但是,实际上在金属加工过程中材料是承受复杂的应力状态,在模具——工件接触面上增加有摩擦力.而且,这些应力和摩擦力一般地沿着接触面变化.准确的计算或预测载荷、力、应力和温度,不但对设计适宜的设备是重要的,而且对研究工艺期间材料的变化过程也是重要的.本文将讨论材料变形过程中所运用的主要分析方法及其优缺点.     

A study on the interactions among several plant secondary compounds and aphids

The research, focused on the specific interactions among seven plant secondary compounds and aphids, was carried out and the preliminary results showed: (1) "T-typed tube method" was regarded as the best method compared with others designed to observe the interactions. (2) Cabbage aphid was able to be attracted by laurolene while it was not susceptible to α-pinene, β-pinene and diamylene. (3) Gossypol, a major secondary substance in cotton, was able to be implicated as feeding attractant to cotton aphid. (4) Rutin might be implicated repellent to cotton aphid.     

Bi-national assessment of the Great Lakes: SOLEC partnerships

Many administrative jurisdictions have authority over parts of the Great Lakes, sometimes with competing purposes as well as governance at differing scales of time and space. As demand increases for high quality information that is relevant to environmental managers, environmental and natural resource agencies with limited budgets must look to interdisciplinary, collaborative approaches for the collection, analysis and reporting of data. The State of the Lakes Ecosystem Conferences (SOLEC) were begun in 1994 in response to reporting requirements of the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement between Canada and the U.S. The biennial conferences provide independent, science-based reporting on the state of health of the Great Lakes ecosystem components. A suite of indicators necessary and sufficient to assess Great Lakes ecosystem status was introduced in 1998, and assessments based on a subset of the indicators were presented in 2000. Because SOLEC is a multi-agency, multi-jurisdictional reporting venue, the SOLEC indicators require acceptance by a broad spectrum of stakeholders in the Great Lakes basin. The SOLEC indicators list is expected to provide the basis for government agencies and other organizations to collaborate more effectively and to allocate resources to data collection, evaluation and reporting on the state of the Great Lakes basin ecosystem.     

Assessing the influence of altitude and temperature on biological monitoring of freshwater quality: A preliminary investigation

The effect of altitude and water temperature on biomonitoring of freshwater quality was examined along an unpolluted area (36 km in length) of the upper Río Tajo (central Spain). The macrobenthic and fish communities were studied, and the Biological Monitoring Water Quality (BMWQ) method was applied. As expected, values of altitude and temperature respectively decreased and increased with increasing distance from the river source; these two physical parameters exhibited a negative and significant (P<0.05) correlation coefficient between them. However, despite evident changes in the functional structure of both aquatic communities along the study area, BMWQ scores were similar at all sampling sites. Pearson correlation coefficients between physical and biological parameters were not significant (P>0.05). The BMWQ index only exhibited significant (positive) correlation coefficients with macrobenthic and fish biomasses, indicating that freshwater quality could affect the biological production of fluvial ecosystems. It is concluded that biomonitoring of freshwater quality may be independent of the influence of altitude and water temperature at local spatial scales. Nonetheless, further investigations would be needed to clearly differentiate between the effects of anthropogenic and natural causes on biological monitoring at larger spatial scales.     

Occurrence and congeners specific of poiychlorinated biphenyls in agricultural soils from Southern Jiangsu, China

A total of 198 agricultural soil samples were collected from Zhangjiagang and Changshu in Southern Jiangsu for analysis of 13 polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in order to assess the levels of pollution, sources, area distribution, and potential risk for the environment. All methods were rigorously tested and an adequate quality control was ensured. Only one site had no PCBs residues, and the highest total PCBs concentration in the surface soils was 32.83 ng/g. The average concentration in all the soil samples was 4.13 ng/g, signaling low-level pollution. Tetra-, penta-, and hexa-chlorinated biphenyls were dominant species in soil samples, accounting for more than 75% ofΣPCBs in the soil samples. PCB118 was the most abundant congener in all the samples. The PCB118 was about 20% ofΣPCBs. The soil organic matter content showed only a weak correlation with the levels of all PCB congeners, in which a better correlation was noted for the more volatile lighter PCB congeners than for the heavier homologues. To a certain extent, the sources and land use seemed to influence the levels of PCBs.     

ASM1中废水和污泥组分浓度的测定方法研究

对呼吸计量法应用于校准ASM1作了简明的阐述。在呼吸速率与模型组分关系的基础上,介绍了ASM1中废水与污泥各组分浓度的测定方法,并指出模型组分细化的意义。     

楔横轧轴肩的成形曲面的设计

此文分析在二辊楔横轧中轧制各类轴肩的过程。在假想工件轴端固定的图上确定楔侧面截面轮廓形状,再通过叠加轴向刚性移动量确定各截面实际位置,比较直观简便地设计出轧制轴肩的辊面上的成形曲面。最后归纳了设计步骤。     

数值模拟的可视化及其实现技术

此文介绍了一个用于数值模拟过程的二维图形界面,它由两大部分组成:“MANU”实现计算结果的手工操作显示及编辑,“AUTO”用于数值计算过程的自动跟踪.文中详细介绍了系统的设计方法、结构、工作原理和主要功能.