A Land Cover Change Monitoring Program: Strategy for an International Effort

An international system for monitoring land cover change is needed to support a range of scientific and policy objectives. Although much of the technology and methods are readily available, such a program has yet to be implemented. This paper outlines the rationale, requirements, and strategy for implementing a land cover-monitoring program using satellite remote sensing, field and ground measurements, and models and assessments. The proposed program builds on existing activities throughout the world and is designed to simultaneously meet the needs of the international policy, global change research, and national resource management. Outputs from this program would provide support to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, lead to the development of consistent country-level emission inventories, and address important scientific problems in global change research such as closing the global carbon budget.     

Foraging tactics of two guilds of web-spinning spiders

Summary The foraging behavior of orbweaving and sheetweb weaving guilds of spiders was investigated. Orbweavers move among web-sites frequently, but sheetweb weavers do not. A simple model that examines the adaptive advantages of active foraging and sit-and-wait strategies leads to three predictions: 1) Orbweavers should have a simple decision rule for leaving web-sites, 2) Orbweavers' web-sites should have more variable payoffs than do the web-sites of sheetweb weavers, and 3) Orbweavers should have a lower cost of moving than do sheetweb weavers. Field and experimental data bear out each prediction. In addition, analysis of the residence times of spiders at web-sites that are used more than once reveals that members of the two guilds do not compete with each other for web-sites.The distinction between active foragers and sit-and-wait predators stems from the relative frequency of the decision to leave a foraging site. Thus active foragers are those predators that move often from patch to patch, and sit-and-wait predators are those that leave patches infrequently. In this sense, orbweaving spiders are active foragers and sheetweb weavers are sit-and-wait predators.     

Imperfectly optimal animals

Summary We consider models of behavior that apply to two different problems: when a predator should leave a foraging site and how a female should choose the best available male. In each case we derive rules for an optimal solution to the problem. We also derive models based on very simple, plausible rules of behavior that we suspect animals may actually use. Although the expected payoffs from optimality models always exceed the expected payoffs from our simpler behavioral models, under certain conditions the difference is not large. When good foraging sites last but a short time and when females' mobility in their habitat is limited, the results of simple models and optimal models are very close indeed.Because of the difficulty of distinguishing between the results of each type of model and because natural selection will presumably provide a best mix of solutions to a range of problems rather than a best solution to any one problem, we suggest that behavioral ecologists expend more effort on simple, plausible models of animal behavior. Such models provide ready-made testable hypotheses about the animal's approximation to optimality and about the actual mechanisms of behavior.     

Ecosystem Impacts of Geoengineering: A Review for Developing a Science Plan

Geoengineering methods are intended to reduce climate change, which is already having demonstrable effects on ecosystem structure and functioning in some regions. Two types of geoengineering activities that have been proposed are: carbon dioxide (CO(2)) removal (CDR), which removes CO(2) from the atmosphere, and solar radiation management (SRM, or sunlight reflection methods), which reflects a small percentage of sunlight back into space to offset warming from greenhouse gases (GHGs). Current research suggests that SRM or CDR might diminish the impacts of climate change on ecosystems by reducing changes in temperature and precipitation. However, sudden cessation of SRM would exacerbate the climate effects on ecosystems, and some CDR might interfere with oceanic and terrestrial ecosystem processes. The many risks and uncertainties associated with these new kinds of purposeful perturbations to the Earth system are not well understood and require cautious and comprehensive research.     

Strategies of female mate choice: A theoretical analysis

Summary Females of many species face a difficult sampling problem while searching for a mate. How do they find the best male possible when the constraints of time, memory, and mobility prevent them from visiting all the males in the population?Five possible solutions are examined: random mating a fixed-threshold criterion, a fixed-threshold with last-chance option, an optimal one-step decision strategy, and the best-of-n-males strategy. Random mating is the worst strategy whenever the female gets more than one chance to mate. The two fixed-threshold strategies approach equal effectiveness as n increases but are always below the optimal one-step decision strategy. However, the best-of-n-males strategy always yields the highest expectation of fitness in a mate. The difference is especially great when n5.Plotting the average fitness of males chosen vs n, the number of males examined, yields a negatively accelerating curve. Since the cost of searching will be an increasing function of n, the two curves can be combined to yield an optimum n: the point where the difference between the curves is greatest.The one field study (Brown 1978) that addresses these problems in detail reveals that female mottled sculpins choose males on a relative, rather than absolute, basis, as theory suggests they should.