Foresight science in conservation: Tools,barriers, and mainstreaming opportunities

Foresight science is a systematic approach to generate future predictions for planning and management by drawing upon analytical and predictive tools to understand the past and present, while providing insights about the future. To illustrate the application of foresight science in conservation, we present three case studies: identification of emerging risks to conservation, conservation of at-risk species, and aid in the development of management strategies for multiple stressors. We highlight barriers to mainstreaming foresight science in conservation including knowledge accessibility/organization, communication across diverse stakeholders/decision makers, and organizational capacity. Finally, we investigate opportunities for mainstreaming foresight science including continued advocacy to showcase its application, incorporating emerging technologies (i.e., artificial intelligence) to increase capacity/decrease costs, and increasing education/training in foresight science via specialized courses and curricula for trainees and practicing professionals. We argue that failure to mainstream foresight science will hinder the ability to achieve future conservation objectives in the Anthropocene.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-022-01786-0.     

Changes in phospholipase A2 activity and lipid content during early development of Atlantic halibut (Hippoglossus hippoglossus)

During early development in fish, phospholipase A₂ (EC 3.1.1.4) regulates membrane lipid modifications, which relates to changes in environmental conditions and provision of fatty acids required for metabolic energy substrates and prostaglandin biosynthesis. A method to analyze phospholipase A₂ in rat tissues has been modified to measure its activity in embryonic Atlantic halibut (Hippoglossus hippoglossus L.). Egg and embryo samples were collected during the 1994 spawning season. Enzyme activity was undetectable at fertilization but in 10-d embryos was 230 pmol mg⁻¹ h⁻¹ (at 20 °C) and increased by ∼120% at hatch (17-d). Significant alterations in the fatty acid composition of important phospholipids, phosphatidylcholine (PC) and phosphatidylethanolamine (PE), were also observed. The content of some critical polyunsaturated fatty acids, and the ratio of unsaturated/saturated fatty acids, declined significantly over development. Acyl-chain restructuring mediated through the activity of phospholipase A₂, coupled with other observed lipid changes (significant increases in the PC/PE ratio and cholesterol content), would produce a decreased fluidity of membranes during embryonic development, coinciding with the predicted upward movement of larvae in the water column. Arachidonic acid (20:4n-6) removed from PE could serve as a precursor for biosynthesis of 2-series prostaglandins, and eicosapentaenoic acid (20:5n-3) from PC is a likely source for other prostaglandin types. Despite removal of polyunsaturated fatty acids, there was an overall increase in lipid and fatty acid concentration, which can be attributed to amino acid catabolism during early developmental stages. Received: 9 September 1996 / Accepted: 8 September 1997     

Uptake and depuration of organic contaminants by blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) exposed to environmentally contaminated sediment

Experiments were designed to expose blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) to contaminated sediment collected from Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, USA in 1982. Measurements were taken to allow comparisons of the uptake and depuration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). In addition, concentration factors in the mussels were calculated separately against the dissolved and particulate phase concentrations and the results from the exposure and control systems were compared. Both PAHs and PCBs were rapidly accumulated by the mussels exposed to the contaminated sediment. After the mussels were transferred to control seawater, individual PAHs were depurated with half-lives ranging from 12 to 30 d. Individual PCBs showed depuration half-lives which ranged from 16 to 46 d. Concentration factors in the mussels calculated against the particulate phase concentrations were very different in the exposure and control systems. Concentration factors calculated using only the dissolved phase concentrations (bioconcentration factors) showed excellent agreement in the two systems, possibly an indication that the dissolved phase was the direct source of the contaminants accumulated by the mussels. The bioconcentration factors for PCBs were higher than those of PAHs when compounds with similar n-octanol/water partition coefficients were compared.     

Marine diatoms grown in chemostats under silicate or ammonium limitation. II. Transient response of Skeletonema costatum to a single addition of the limiting nutrient

Skeletonema costatum was grown at different steady-state growth rates in ammonium or silicate-limited chemostats. The culture was perturbed from its steady-state condition by a single addition of the limiting nutrients ammonium or silicate. The transient response was followed by measuring nutrient disappearance of the liliting perturbation experiment indicate that three distinct modes of uptake of the limiting nutrient can be distinguished; surge uptake (V _s ), internally controlled uptake (V _i ), and externally controlled uptake (V _e ). An interpretation of these three modes of uptake is given and their relation to control of uptake of the limiting nutrient is discussed. The uptake rates of the non-limiting nutrients were shown to be depressed during the surge of the uptake of the limiting nutrient. Kinetic uptake parameters, K _s and V _max, were obtained from data acquired during the externally controlled uptake segment, V _e . The same V _max value of 0. 12 h^-1, was obtained under either silicate or ammonium limitation. Estimates of K _s were 0.4 g-at NH₄-N l^-1 and 0.7 g-at Si l^-1. Short-term ¹⁵N uptake-rate measurements conducted on nitrogen-limited cultures appear to be a combination of V _s or V _i , or at lower substrate concentrations V _s and V _e . It is difficult to separate these different uptake modes in batch or tracer experiments, and ensuing problems in interpretation are discussed.Contribution No. 882 from the Department of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195, USA. This work represents portion of three dissertations submitted to the Department of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Ph.D. degree.     

Associations between soil lead concentrations and populations by race/ethnicity and income-to-poverty ratio in urban and rural areas

Lead (Pb) is a well-studied environmental contaminant that has many negative health effects, especially for children. Both racial/ethnic and income disparities have been documented with respect to exposure to Pb in soils. The objectives of this study were to assess whether soil Pb concentrations in rural and urban areas of South Carolina USA, previously identified as having clusters of intellectual disabilities (ID) in children, were positively associated with populations of minority and low-income individuals and children (≤6 years of age). Surface soils from two rural and two urban areas with identified clusters of ID were analyzed for Pb and concentrations were spatially interpolated using inverse distance weighted analysis. Population race/ethnicity and income-to-poverty ratio (ITPR) from United States Census 2000 block group data were aerially interpolated by block group within each area. Urban areas had significantly higher concentrations of Pb than rural areas. Significant positive associations between black, non-Hispanic Latino, individuals and children ≤6 years of age and mean estimated Pb concentrations were observed in both urban (r = 0.38, p = 0.0007) and rural (r = 0.53, p = 0.04) areas. Significant positive associations also were observed between individuals and children with an ITPR < 1.00 and Pb concentrations, though primarily in urban areas. Racial/ethnic minorities and low ITPR individuals, including children, may be at elevated risk for exposure to Pb in soils.     

Influence of alternate reproductive tactics and pre- and postcopulatory sexual selection on paternity and offspring performance in a lizard

Sexual selection theory predicts different optima for multiple mating in males and females. We used mating experiments and genetic paternity testing to disentangle pre- and postcopulatory mechanisms of sexual selection and alternate reproductive tactics in the highly promiscuous lizard Eulamprus heatwolei. Both sexes mated multiply: 30–60 % of clutches were sired by two to four fathers, depending on the experiment. Larger males sired more offspring when we allowed male contest competition: 52 % of large males but only 14 % of small males sired at least one offspring. In the absence of male contest competition, females mated promiscuously and there was no large male advantage: 80 % of large males and 90 % of small males sired at least one offspring, and there was no evidence for last-male precedence. Multiple mating did not yield obvious direct or indirect benefits to females. E. heatwolei represents a complex system in which males attempt to improve their fertility success by limiting rivals from access to females and through adopting alternate reproductive tactics. Conversely, females exhibit no obvious precopulatory mate choice but may influence fitness through postcopulatory means by either promoting sperm competition or through cryptic female choice. Our results support the hypothesis that female multiple mating in nonavian reptiles is best explained by the combined effect of mate encounter frequency and high benefits to males but low costs to females.     

Compilation of EINECS: Descriptions and definitions used for substances,impurities and mixtures

The European INventory of Existing commercial Chemical Substances (EINECS) lists all substances which were on the European Community Market between 1 January 1971 and 18 September 1981. Substances on EINECS are known as ‘existing’ substances. The EINECS inventory was drawn up by the European Commission to meet the requirements of article 13 of Directive 79/831/EEC [1]. EINECS was published in the Official Journal of the European Communities in 1990 [2]. This paper describes how individual substances, impurities and mixtures were defined and dealt with when registered for the EINECS inventory. It is the first in a series of such papers.     

The political ecology of Yukon forestry: managing the forest as if people mattered

Over the past several decades a growing interest has emerged in the relationship between forest dependent communities and their use of non-timber forest resources (NTFR—i.e. berries, roots, barks). Motivated in large part by international concerns over the loss of biological and cultural diversity, efforts are now being made to conserve the world's remaining forests by repositioning NTFR to the forefront of the forest management process. Together with the Little Salmon Carmacks First Nation, we have undertaken an assessment that: 1) addresses the role of NTFR in fulfilling basic human necessities and well-being of community members, and 2) identifies the perceptual differences that exist among First Nation and non-First Nation community members regarding the security and future availability of forest resources. Based on our findings, we argue that if the true value of the forest is to be understood, and thus sustained, those involved in management must consider the full array of products and services the forest provides. Thus the conventional and over-simplified view that the forest is to provide primarily for commercial timber must be challenged in light of the multiplicity of values community members gain from forest use.     

Current strategies in nitrite detection and their application to field analysis

The various analytical protocols that have been developed to aid the measurement of nitrite within environmental samples have been critically appraised and their applicability to field measurement assessed. The present communication presents a perspective on current techniques and technologies encompassing spectroscopic, electrochemical and chromatographic methodologies and highlights those that are liable to emerge in the near future. Commercial devices have been included and where appropriate the advantages and limitations posed by their operation within field contexts have been described.