Impact analysis of drought, water excess and salinity on grass production in The Netherlands using historical and future climate data

The coupled SWAP-WOFOST model was used to study the effects of increasing salinity of groundwater, drought and water excess on grass production in The Netherlands. WOFOST simulates crop growth and SWAP simulates transport of water, solutes and heat in the vadose zone. The model was tested using several datasets from field experiments. We applied the models at regional scale where we quantified the impact of various groundwater salinity levels on grass growth and production using historical weather data (1971-2000). The salt concentrations in the subsoil were derived from the National Hydrological Instrument. The results show that salinity effects on grass production are limited. In wet years the excess rainfall will infiltrate the soil and reduce salt water seepage. In a next step we used future weather data for the year 2050, derived from 3 Global Circulation Models. From each model we used data from two CO₂ emission scenarios. As expected higher temperatures increased drought stress, however, the production reduction as a result of salt water in the root zone is limited. Salt stress mainly occurred when irrigation was applied with saline water. The increased CO₂ concentration in combination with the limited drought stress resulted in increasing simulated actual and potential yields. Overall conclusion for grassland in The Netherlands: drought stress is stronger than stress caused by water excess which on its turn is stronger than salinity stress. Future water demand for irrigation may increase by 11-19% and result in water scarcity if water supply is insufficient.     

Climate change impacts on the leaching of a heavy metal contamination in a small lowland catchment

The Keersop catchment (43km(2)) in the south of The Netherlands has been contaminated by the emissions of four zinc ore smelters. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of future projected climate change on the hydrology and the leaching of heavy metals (i.e. Cd and Zn) in the catchment. The numerical, quasi-2D, unsaturated zone Soil Water Atmosphere Plant model was used with 100-year simulated daily time series of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The time series are representative of stationary climates for the periods 1961-1990 ("baseline") and 2071-2100 ("future"). The time series of future climate were obtained by downscaling the results of eight regional climate model (RCM) experiments, driven by the SRES A2 emissions scenario, using change factors for a series of climate statistics and applying them to stochastic weather generator models. The time series are characterized by increased precipitation in winter, less precipitation in summer, and higher air temperatures (between 2°C and 5°C) throughout the year. Future climate scenarios project higher evapotranspiration rates, more irrigation, less drainage, lower discharge rates and lower groundwater levels, due to increased evapotranspiration and a slowing down of the groundwater system. As a result, lower concentrations of Cd and Zn in surface water are projected. The reduced leaching of heavy metals, due to drying of the catchment, showed a positive impact on a limited aspect of surface water quality.     

Sustainable global energy supply based on lignocellulosic biomass from afforestation of degraded areas

An important aspect of present global energy scenarios is the assumption that the amount of biomass that can be grown on the available area is so limited that a scenario based on biomass as the major source of energy should be unrealistic. We have been investigating the question whether a Biomass Scenario may be realistic. We found that the global energy demand projected by the International Energy Agency in the Reference Scenario for the year 2030 could be provided sustainably and economically primarily from lignocellulosic biomass grown on areas which have been degraded by human activities in historical times. Moreover, other renewable energies will contribute to the energy mix. There would be no competition with increasing food demand for existing arable land. Afforestation of degraded areas and investment for energy and fuel usage of the biomass are not more expensive than investment in energy infrastructure necessary up to 2030 assumed in the fossil energy based Reference Scenario, probably much cheaper considering the additional advantages such as stopping the increase of and even slowly reducing the CO₂ content of the atmosphere, soil, and water conservation and desertification control. Most importantly, investment for a Biomass Scenario would be actually sustainable, in contrast to investment in energy-supply infrastructure of the Reference Scenario. Methods of afforestation of degraded areas, cultivation, and energetic usage of lignocellulosic biomass are available but have to be further improved. Afforestation can be started immediately, has an impact in some few years, and may be realized in some decades. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The predictive value of short-term screening tests for carcinogenicity

Short term tests are increasingly used to detect mutagenicity and/or possible carcinogenicity. This increasing use is based on the new ideas in chemical carcinogenesis, which have led to the so-called somatic mutation theory.It is emphasized that not all carcinogens will be mutagenic per se especially since two classes of carcinogens can be distinguished, i.e. genotoxic and non-genotoxic or epigenetic carcinogens. The most commonly used short-term tests are those which detect mutagenic action, DNA damage or those which detect malignant transformation in cell cultures.Since most short-term tests lack metabolic activation a metabolic activation system is usually added to the test system. The sensitivity, the specificity and the accuracy of the different short-term test are discussed. The use of a combination of mutagenicity tests usually increases the sensitivity whereas specificity and accuracy usually decrease. The use of a battery of different short-term tests may yield better results with respect to the specificity and accuracy.     

Parvovirus B19 infection in pregnancy: new insights and management

In this article, we review the virology, pathology, epidemiology and clinical spectrum of intrauterine human parvovirus B19 (B19V) infection, including intrauterine fetal death, non-immune hydrops fetalis, thrombocytopenia and neurological manifestations such as pediatric stroke and perivascular calcifications. In addition, we discuss the new insights into the neurodevelopmental outcome of intrauterine B19V infection. Current diagnosis and management of B19V infection is summarized, including a diagnostic and follow-up flowchart for practical clinical use. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Effect of Channelization on Floodplain Sediment Deposition and Subsidence Along the Pocomoke River,Maryland1

Kroes, Daniel E. and Cliff R. Hupp, 2010. The Effect of Channelization on Floodplain Sediment Deposition and Subsidence Along the Pocomoke River, Maryland. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(4): 686-699. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00440.x Abstract: The nontidal Pocomoke River was intensively ditched and channelized by the mid-1900s. In response to channelization; channel incision, head-cut erosion, and spoil bank perforation have occurred in this previously nonalluvial system. Six sites were selected for study of floodplain sediment dynamics in relation to channel condition. Short- and long-term sediment deposition/subsidence rates and composition were determined. Short-term rates (four years) ranged from 0.6 to 3.6 mm/year. Long-term rates (15-100+ years) ranged from −11.9 to 1.7 mm/year. ¹³⁷Cs rates (43 years) indicate rates of 0.24 to 7.4 mm/year depending on channel condition. Channelization has limited contact between streamflow and the floodplain, resulting in little or no sediment retention in channelized reaches. Along unchannelized reaches, extended contact and depth of river water on the floodplain resulted in high deposition rates. Drainage of floodplains exposed organic sediments to oxygen resulting in subsidence and releasing stored carbon. Channelization increased sediment deposition in downstream reaches relative to the presettlement system. The sediment storage function of this river has been dramatically altered by channelization. Results indicate that perforation of spoil banks along channelized reaches may help to alleviate some of these issues.