Methodology for global sensitivity analysis of consequence models

A methodology is presented for global sensitivity analysis of consequence models used in process safety applications. It involves running a consequence model around a hundred times and using the results to construct a statistical emulator, which is essentially a sophisticated curve fit to the data. The emulator is then used to undertake the sensitivity analysis and identify which input parameters (e.g. operating temperature and pressure, wind speed) have a significant effect on the chosen output (e.g. vapour cloud size). Performing the sensitivity analysis using the emulator rather than the consequence model itself leads to significant savings in computing time.To demonstrate the methodology, a global sensitivity analysis is performed on the Phast consequence model for discharge and dispersion. The scenarios studied consist of above-ground, horizontal, steady-state discharges of dense-phase carbon dioxide (CO₂), with orifices ranging in diameter from ½ to 2 inch and the liquid CO₂ stagnation conditions maintained at between 100 and 150 bar. These scenarios are relevant in scale to leaks from large diameter above-ground pipes or vessels.Seven model input parameters are varied: the vessel temperature and pressure, orifice size, wind speed, humidity, ground surface roughness and height of the release. The input parameters that have a dominant effect on the dispersion distance of the CO₂ cloud are identified, both in terms of their direct effect on the dispersion distance and their indirect effect, through interactions with other varying input parameters.The analysis, including the Phast simulations, runs on a standard office laptop computer in less than 30 min. Tests are performed to confirm that a hundred Phast runs are sufficient to produce an emulator with an acceptable degree of accuracy. Increasing the number of Phast runs is shown to have no effect on the conclusions of the sensitivity analysis.The study demonstrates that Bayesian analysis of model sensitivity can be conducted rapidly and easily on consequence models such as Phast. There is the potential for this to become a routine part of consequence modelling.     

Balanus amphitrite (Cirripedia: Thoracica) — A potential indicator of fluoride,copper, lead,chromium and mercury in North Adriatic lagoons

The capacity of the barnacle Balanus amphitrite Darwin to accumulate pollutants above ambient levels was examined in two North Adriatic lagoons with respect to fluoride, copper, lead, chromium and mercury. Levels in soft tissues ranged from 138 to 312 ppm (dry weight) for fluoride, 41 to 109 ppm for copper, 7.1 to 11.7 ppm for lead, 2.10 to 3.89 ppm for chromium, and from 0.96 to 1.35 ppm for mercury. The concentration factor was of the order of 10² for fluoride, 10³ for copper, and possibly higher than 10³ for lead, chromium and mercury. The differences of about 2:1 in the fluoride and copper concentrations in the waters of the two lagoons were clearly reflected by the levels in the barnacles. B. amphitrite that had set on experimental panels had levels similar to those found in specimens collected from long-term natural populations as early as 42 days after immersion of the panels. Compared with literature data, the accumulation levels found in B. amphitrite for fluoride were among the highest known for invertebrates; the values for copper and lead were considerable, but exceeded by others published for B. balanoides; the results for chromium and mercury were one order of magnitude lower than values reported for other suspension-feeders or indicator organisms. B. amphitrite appears to possess most of the properties considered essential for a biological indicator. Eventual determination of the response time of the barnacle to changes in environmental level could profitably be carried out utilizing experimental panels.