Toward harmonizing prospective effectiveness assessment for road safety: Comparing tools in standard test case simulations

Abstract

Objective: With the overall goal to harmonize prospective effectiveness assessment of active safety systems, the specific objective of this study is to identify and evaluate sources of variation in virtual precrash simulations and to suggest topics for harmonization resulting in increased comparability and thus trustworthiness of virtual simulation-based prospective effectiveness assessment.

Methods: A round-robin assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems was performed using an array of state-of-the-art virtual simulation tools on a set of standard test cases. The results were analyzed to examine reasons for deviations in order to identify and assess aspects that need to be harmonized and standardized. Deviations between results calculated by independent engineering teams using their own tools should be minimized if the research question is precisely formulated regarding input data, models, and postprocessing steps.

Results: Two groups of sources of variations were identified; one group (mostly related to the implementation of the system under test) can be eliminated by using a more accurately formulated research question, whereas the other group highlights further harmonization needs because it addresses specific differences in simulation tool setups. Time-to-collision calculations, vehicle dynamics, especially braking behavior, and hit-point position specification were found to be the main sources of variation.

Conclusions: The study identified variations that can arise from the use of different simulation setups in assessment of the effectiveness of active safety systems. The research presented is a first of its kind and provides significant input to the overall goal of harmonization by identifying specific items for standardization. Future activities aim at further specification of methods for prospective assessments of the effectiveness of active safety, which will enhance comparability and trustworthiness in this kind of studies and thus contribute to increased traffic safety.     

Sulphate, Nitrogen and Base Cation Budgets at 21 Forested Catchments in Canada, the United States and Europe

To assess the concern over declining base cation levels in forest soils caused by acid deposition, input-output budgets (1990s average) for sulphate (SO₄), inorganic nitrogen (NO₃-N; NH₄-N), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg) and potassium (K) were synthesised for 21 forested catchments from 17 regions in Canada, the United States and Europe. Trend analysis was conducted on monthly ion concentrations in deposition and runoff when more than 9 years of data were available (14 regions, 17 sites). Annual average SO₄ deposition during the 1990s ranged between 7.3 and 28.4 kg ha⁻¹ per year, and inorganic nitrogen (N) deposition was between 2.8 and 13.8 kg ha⁻¹ per year, of which 41–67% was nitrate (NO₃-N). Over the period of record, SO₄ concentration in deposition decreased in 13/14 (13 out of 14 total) regions and SO₄ in runoff decreased at 14/17 catchments. In contrast, NO₃-N concentrations in deposition decreased in only 1/14 regions, while NH₄-N concentration patterns varied; increasing at 3/14 regions and decreasing at 2/14 regions. Nitrate concentrations in runoff decreased at 4/17 catchments and increased at only 1 site, whereas runoff levels of NH₄-N increased at 5/17 catchments. Decreasing trends in deposition were also recorded for Ca, Mg, and K at many of the catchments and on an equivalent basis, accounted for up to 131% (median 22%) of the decrease in acid anion deposition. Base cation concentrations in streams generally declined over time, with significant decreases in Ca, Mg and K occurring at 8, 9 and 7 of 17 sites respectively, which accounted for up to 133% (median 48%) of the decrease in acid anion concentration. Sulphate export exceeded input at 18/21 catchments, likely due to dry deposition and/or internal sources. The majority of N in deposition (31–100%; median 94%) was retained in the catchments, although there was a tendency for greater NO₃-N leaching at sites receiving higher (<7 kg ha^-1 per year) bulk inorganic N deposition. Mass balance calculations show that export of Ca and Mg in runoff exceeds input at all 21 catchments, but K export only exceeds input at 16/21 sites. Estimates of base cation weathering were available for 18 sites. When included in the mass balance calculation, Ca, Mg and K exports exceeded inputs at 14, 10 and 2 sites respectively. Annual Ca and Mg losses represent appreciable proportions of the current exchangeable soil Ca and Mg pools, although losses at some of the sites likely occur from weathering reactions beneath the rooting zone and there is considerable uncertainty associated with mineral weathering estimates. Critical loads for sulphur (S) and N, using a critical base cation to aluminium ratio of 10 in soil solution, are currently exceeded at 7 of the 18 sites with base cation weathering estimates. Despite reductions in SO₄ and H⁺ deposition, mass balance estimates indicate that acid deposition continues to acidify soils in many regions with losses of Ca and Mg of primary concern. The U.S. Government's right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged. The Canadian Crown reserves the right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright.     

Prenatal diagnosis of inborn errors in peroxisomal β-oxidation

In recent years, an increasing number of inherited diseases in man have been recognized in which there is an impairment in the peroxisomal β-oxidation of very-long-chain fatty acids. In general, these disorders are associated with severe neurological and physical abnormalities and death within the first years of life. In this paper we describe our experience with regard to the prenatal diagnosis of a number of different inborn errors of peroxisomal β-oxidation. Eleven pregnancies at risk were monitored by measuring very-long-chain fatty acid levels as well as very-long-chain fatty acid β-oxidation in cultured chorionic villous fibroblasts and/or amniotic fluid cells. Five affected fetuses were identified. It is concluded that prenatal diagnosis in this group of diseases can be done reliably using cultured chorionic villous fibroblasts or amniotic fluid cells.     

The functionality of female reciprocal calls in the Iberian midwife toad (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Alytes cisternasii</Emphasis>): female-female acoustic competition?

Female midwife toads (genus Alytes) emit highly variable reciprocal calls of unclear function prior to and during courtship. In some species, female-female competition, expressed as physical fighting, has been reported. Males of Majorcan midwife toads (Alytes muletensis) show phonotactic response to female calls, and females of Iberian midwife toads (Alytes cisternasii) respond differently according to the male call characteristics. In this study, I test the hypothesis of female-female acoustic competition as an additional function of female reciprocal calls. Playback tests indicate that female calls are not clearly involved in female acoustic competition in the Iberian midwife toad, therefore female calls could be directed at males rather than towards competitive females.     

The cerebro-hepato-renal (Zellweger) syndrome: Prenatal detection based on impaired biosynthesis of plasmalogens

Prenatal diagnosis of the cerebro-hepato-renal (Zellweger) syndrome has been performed in 10 pregnancies at risk by measuring both the activity of acyl CoA: dihydroxyacetonephosphate acyltransferase (DHAP-AT) and the de novo plasmalogen biosynthesis, either in cultured amniotic fluid cells or in fibroblasts cultured from a chorionic villus biopsy. In 7 of the pregnancies both tests indicated no abnormality. All 7 continued to term and normal infants were delivered. However, in amniotic fluid cells from 2 fetuses affected by Zellweger syndrome unequivocal differences from control values were found. The activity of DHAP-AT was clearly deficient and the de novo plasmalogen biosynthesis was impaired. In one pregnancy at risk prenatal diagnosis was performed during the first trimester by measuring both the DHAP-AT activity and the de novo plasmalogen biosynthesis in fibroblasts cultured from a chorionic villi biopsy. From the deficient DHAP-AT activity and the impaired de novo plasmalogen biosynthesis it was concluded that the fetus was affected. This was confirmed biochemically after induced abortion. It can be concluded that measurement of the DHAP-AT activity and the de novo plasmalogen biosynthesis provides convenient methods for the early prenatal detection of Zellweger syndrome.     

Ergonomics and safety of manual bag sealing.

A variety of seals is used to close bags. Each seal has advantages and disadvantages. For shop assistants sealing bags could be a repetitive physically demanding action. Opening and closing the bags again can cause some discomfort or annoyance for consumers. Besides, it is an activity which can endanger safety, i.e., knives being used in opening, children swallowing the systems of sealing. To prevent these problems a new sealing system was developed. In this paper the opinion of shop assistants, consumers and experts on several bag sealing systems was studied. It appeared that for sealing plastic bags, adhesive tape with paper is the best out of 4 systems, closely followed by adhesive tape. It is discussed that for the elderly, there is still room for improvement in opening bag seals.     

Asian Urban Environment and Climate Change: Preface

The Asian Network on Climate Science and Technology (www.ancst.org), in collaboration with Tsinghua University, held a conference on environmental and climate science, air pollution, urban planning and transportation in July 2015, with over 40 Asian experts participating and presentation. This was followed by a meeting with local government and community experts on the practical conclusions of the conference. Of the papers presented at the conference a selection are included in this special issue of Journal of Environmental Science, which also reflects the conclusions of the Paris Climate meeting in Dec 2015, when the major nations of the world agreed about the compelling need to reduce the upward trend of adverse impacts associated with global climate change. Now is the time for urban areas to work out the serious consequences for their populations, but also how they should work together to take action to reduce global warming to benefit their own communities and also the whole planet!     

Acoustic underwater signals with a probable function during competitive feeding in a tadpole

Acoustic communication is widespread among adult stages of terrestrial animals and fish and has also been observed in insect larvae. We report underwater acoustic communication in the larvae of a frog, Gephyromantis azzurrae, from Isalo, a sandstone massif in western Madagascar. According to our field data, these tadpoles live in streams and prefer habitats characterized by comparatively low temperatures, shallow water depth, and a relatively fast current. Feeding experiments indicated that the tadpoles are carnivorous and macrophagous. They consumed insect larvae and, to a lesser extent, small shrimps, and conspecific as well as heterospecific tadpoles. Calls of these tadpoles consisted either of single click notes or of irregular series of various clicks. Some complex calls have a pulsed structure with three to nine indistinct energy pulses. Production of the pulses coincided with rapid closure of the jaw sheaths and often with an upward movement of the body. Calls were emitted while attacking prey and occurred significantly more often when attacking conspecifics. Tadpoles that had not been fed for some time emitted sounds more frequently than those that had been regularly fed. The spectral frequency of the calls differed in tadpole groups of different size and was higher in groups of smaller tadpoles, suggesting that spectral frequency carries some information about tadpole size which might be important during competitive feeding to assess size and strength of competitors. This report differs from those for the larvae of South American horned frogs, Ceratophrys ornata. These are the only other tadpoles for which sound production has reliably been reported but the calls of Ceratophrys tadpoles occur mainly in a defensive context.     

WRF-Chem simulation of East Asian air quality: Sensitivity to temporal and vertical emissions distributions

This study develops fine temporal (seasonal, day-of-week, diurnal) and vertical allocations of anthropogenic emissions for the TRACE-P inventory and evaluates their impacts on the East Asian air quality prediction using WRF-Chem simulations in July 2001 at 30-km grid spacing against available surface measurements from EANET and NEMCC. For NO₂ and SO₂, the diurnal and vertical redistributions of emissions play essential roles, while the day-of-week variation is less important. When all incorporated, WRF-Chem best simulates observations of surface NO₂ and SO₂ concentrations, while using the default emissions produces the worst result. The sensitivity is especially large over major cities and industrial areas, where surface NO₂ and SO₂ concentrations are reduced by respectively 3–7 and 6–12 ppbv when using the scaled emissions. The incorporation of all the three redistributions of emissions simulates surface O₃ concentrations higher by 4–8 ppbv at night and 2–4 ppbv in daytime over broad areas of northern, eastern and central China. To this sensitivity, the diurnal redistribution contributes more than the other two.