Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

RESEARCH: Shrub Propagation Techniques for Biological Control of Invading Tree Species

Cornus stolonifera, Salix petiolaris, and Spiraea alba clones already located within the corridor of an electrical power line. To establish the efficiency of treatments, we examined the statistical differences of growth traits between species and treatments. An analysis of the effects of layering shows, after the first growth season, differences for all growth traits in only one species, Spiraea alba. After the second growth season, we observed the development of new aerial stems. Layering favors horizontal expansion of shrubs over height development. The third year after treatment, the effect of layering is reduced except for Cornus stolonifera, which continuously increases, as shown by the significant progression of the clone issued from the layer even five years after treatments. With the cutting back technique, we expected a distinct vertical growth of the shrubs at the expense of increasing the crown diameter. This technique would be best associated with the rejuvenation of clones, followed by a layering of new shoots to allow a horizontal expansion of the shrubs. Therefore, the formation of a dense shrub community by layering should be considered a valuable approach for the biological control of undesirable trees in powerline rights-of-way.     

The implications of new information and communication technologies for sustainability

This paper discusses the relationship of new information and communication technologies (ICTs) and sustainable development. It deconstructs popular myths about a sustainable information society. One myth is that telework has reduced the need to travel and hence environmental pollution. The reality is that teleworkers make up only a small share of the total workforce, telework can generate new social relationships and hence the need for more travelling, work-related travel produces only a small amount of the total carbon dioxide emissions, and that the total distance travelled per employee is constantly rising. Another myth is that information economy is weightless and dematerialized which reduces environmental impacts. The energy and resource intensities of the ICT sector are indeed lower than the one of the total economy. The ICT sector also emits less CO₂ than the total economy. But the ICT sector constitutes only a small portion of the total value added and fossil fuel combustion is still the dominant activity of modern industrial economies. Some stakeholders argue that virtual products allow resource, energy, and transport savings. But burning digital music on compact discs and DVDs, printing digital articles and books, etc. results in rebound effects that cause new material and energy impacts, computers have a low life span of 2–3 years, reusable and upgradeable computers and computer equipment are hardly used and might not be as profitable as non-reusable ones, computers are consuming much energy. Alternatives such as energy consumption labels on ICTs and green ICTs that consume less energy contradict dominant economic interests. A sustainable information society is a society that makes use of ICTs and knowledge for fostering a good life for all human beings of current and future generations by strengthening biological diversity, technological usability, economic wealth for all, political participation of all, and cultural wisdom. Achieving a sustainable information society costs, it demands a conscious reduction of profits by not investing in the future of capital, but the future of humans, society, and nature.     

The effect of nitrogen deficiency,methionine and inhibitors of methionine metabolism on the DMSP contents of Tetraselmis subcordiformis (Stein)

The unicellular alga Tetraselmis (Platymonas) subcordiformis (Prasinophyceae) displayed a two-phase increase in DMSP (dimethylsulfoniopropionate) contents in response to nitrogen deficiency. In the first phase, DMSP pools increased by 75% within 24 h. The second increase in DMSP was observed after 14 d and was accompanied by cyst formation. Methionine metabolism was involved in DMSP accumulation. A 2.6-fold increase of the DMSP pool could be induced by supplementing a complete ASP (artifical seawater Provasoli) medium with 100 M L-methionine. Inhibition of methionine utilization by T. subcordiformis caused by the addition of S-adenosylhomocystein, a competitive inhibitor of S-adenosylmethionine-dependent transmethylases, resulted in a 24% increase of DMSP contents after 7 h. DMSP accumulation after hyperosmotic shock was significantly delayed when methionine liberation from proteins was inhibited by a set of protease inhibitors. A model for the mechanism of DMSP accumulation is presented on the basis of these data and additional information from the literature. It is proposed that methionine availability in T. subcordiformis determines the rate of DMSP synthesis.     

Critical loads for Finnish lakes: comparison of three steady-state models

Three simple steady-state water-chemistry models are used to calculate critical loads of sulfur for lakes in Finland. Because of the high concentrations of organic matter in Finnish lakes, the influence of organic anions on the calculation of critical loads has been given special attention. The first two methods are well known ion-balance methods which have been used in many previous lake-acidification studies. The third method, developed for this study, includes the numerical solution of equilibrium equations for organic anions, inorganic carbon species and inorganic monomeric aluminum. The original pH and aluminum concentration of the lakes are estimated with this model, and a method to estimate the original acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) by simulating a Gran-titration is also tested on the lake data. Uncertainty in the predictions is estimated by varying the most critical model parameters.