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排序方式: 共有104条查询结果,搜索用时 218 毫秒
1.
本文使用由不同的全球模拟所产生的区域性耦合海洋-大气模型,通过数值模型试验探讨了波罗的海气候未来可能的物理状况.将一些情景以及近来的一些气候模拟情况作了比较,以估计气候变化.海面温度总体平均明显地增高2.9℃.平均年平均增温的水平模式主要可由冰盖的减少解释.由大气向波罗的海的热输送表现出季节性变化周期秋季热损失减少,春季热吸收增加,夏季热吸收减少.年际间海面温度的变化一般是在增加.这与北部一些中平滑的频率分布有关.全部热收支表示出海面太阳辐射在增加,而太阳辐射增加由热通量其他组成成分的变化所平衡. 相似文献
2.
水环境中痕量有机有害物质的监测 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
论述了水中有机有害物质的监测,实质上是一项复杂系统的痕量分析课题。重点评述了痕量富集、色谱分离与监测、综合分析的主要进展。 相似文献
3.
The role of remote sensing in hydrological modelling of the Okavango Delta, Botswana 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Milzow C Kgotlhang L Kinzelbach W Meier P Bauer-Gottwein P 《Journal of environmental management》2009,90(7):2252-2260
A coupled surface water-groundwater model of the Okavango Delta has been built based on the United States Geological Survey software MODFLOW 2000 including the SFR2 package for stream-flow routing. It will provide a new tool for evaluating water management and climate change scenarios. The delta's size and limited accessibility make direct, on the ground data acquisition difficult. Remote sensing methods are the most promising source of acquiring spatially distributed data for both model input parameters and calibration. Topography, aquifer thickness, channel positions, evapotranspiration and precipitation data are all based on remote sensing. Simulated flooding patterns are compared to patterns derived from visible to thermal NOAA-AVHRR data and microwave radar ENVISAT-ASAR data. 相似文献
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We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical-physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961-2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper. 相似文献
6.
Mackenzie BR Meier HE Lindegren M Neuenfeldt S Eero M Blenckner T Tomczak MT Niiranen S 《Ambio》2012,41(6):626-636
Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties. 相似文献
7.
In their recent study, Hilbeck et al. (2012) report that Cry1Ab causes lethal effects on larvae of the ladybird beetle Adalia bipunctata when fed directly to the predator. Such toxic effects were not previously observed in a direct feeding study conducted by us (álvarez-Alfageme et al. 2011). Because Hilbeck et al. (2012) claim that our study design did not allow us to detect any adverse effects we provide arguments for the value and relevance of our study in this commentary. Furthermore we discuss two additional published studies that have not revealed any direct effects of Cry1Ab on larvae of A. bipunctata and are not mentioned by Hilbeck et al. (2012). One of the studies was conducted in our laboratory under more realistic exposure conditions (álvarez-Alfageme et al. 2011). Feeding A. bipunctata larvae with spider mites reared on Bt maize did not reveal any adverse effects on lethal and sublethal parameters of the predator. This was despite the fact that the larvae had ingested high amounts of biologically-active Cry1Ab protein. Thus, we do not see verified evidence that A. bipunctata larvae are sensitive to Cry1Ab at realistic worst-case exposure concentrations. This, together with the fact that A. bipunctata will be little exposed to Cry1Ab under field conditions, allows us to conclude that the risk of Bt maize to this predator is negligible. Support for this comes from the results of many Bt maize field studies that have not revealed evidence for direct Cry1Ab-effects on non-Lepidoptera species. 相似文献
8.
Jorge A. Achcar Eliane R. Rodrigues Edilberto Cepeda-Cuervo 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2013,18(3):259-270
In this paper, we consider several modelling approaches for the mean time between exceedances of a given environmental threshold. The interest here resides in the time between ozone exceedances (also called ozone inter-exceedances times). The proposed models assume two basic density functions for the time between surpassings: the Weibull and the generalised exponential functions. Considering those distributions, a random effect with autoregressive structure is taken into account to determine unexpected changes in the mean of the inter-exceedances density functions. Those unexpected changes could be captured either by their scale parameter or by both their scale and shape parameters. The models are applied to ozone data from the monitoring network of Mexico City. Selection of the model that best explains the data is performed using the deviance information criterion and also the sum of the absolute values of the differences between the estimated and observed means of the inter-exceedances times. An analysis to detect the possible presence of change-points is also presented. 相似文献
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10.
Joseane Simone de Oliveira Pereira Lidiane Rodrigues da Silva Amanda de Meireles Nunes Silas de Souza Oliveira Eliane Veiga da Costa Edson Elias da Silva 《Food and environmental virology》2016,8(1):27-33
Wild polioviruses still remain endemic in three countries (Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Nigeria) and re-emergency of wild polio has been reported in previously polio-free countries. Environmental surveillance has been used as a supplementary tool in monitoring the circulation of wild poliovirus (PVs) and/or vaccine-derived PVs even in the absence of acute flaccid paralysis cases. This study aimed to monitor the presence of polioviruses in wastewater samples collected at one wastewater treatment plant located in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. From December 2011 to June 2012 and from September to December 2012, 31 samples were collected and processed. RD and L20B cell cultures were able to isolate PVs and non-polio enteroviruses in 27/31 samples. Polioviruses were isolated in eight samples (type 1 Sabin = 1, type 2 Sabin = 5, and type 3 Sabin = 2). Vaccine-derived polioviruses were not detected nor evidence of recombination with other PVs or non-polio enterovirus serotypes were observed among the isolates. The Sabin-related serotypes 2 and 3 presented nucleotide substitutions in positions associated with the neurovirulent phenotype at the 5′-UTR. Changes in important Amino acid residues at VP1 were also observed in the serotypes 2 and 3. Environmental surveillance has been used successfully in monitoring the circulation of PVs and non-polio enteroviruses and it is of crucial importance in the final stages of the WHO global polio eradication initiative. Our results show the continuous circulation of Sabin-like PVs and non-polio enteroviruses in the analyzed area during the study period. 相似文献