Adjusting for car occupant injury liability in relation to age, speed limit, and gender-specific driver crash involvement risk

It is well established that older drivers' fragility is an important factor associated with higher levels of fatal crash involvement for older drivers. There has been less research on age-related fragility with respect to the sort of minor injuries that are more common in injury crashes. This study estimates a quantity that is related to injury fragility: the probability that a driver or a passenger of that driver will be injured in crashes involving two cars. The effects of other factors apart from drivers' fragility are included in this measure, including the fragility of the passengers, the crashworthiness of cars driven, seatbelt use by the occupants, and characteristics of crashes (including configuration and impact speed). The car occupant injury liability estimates appropriately includes these factors to adjust risk curves by age, gender, and speed limit accounting for overrepresentation in crashes associated with fragility and these other factors.     

Association between older driver characteristics, on-road driving test performance, and crash liability

From May 1999, a new system for licensing older drivers was introduced in New Zealand. It included a practical on-road driving test with expanded scope, to be completed every two years from the time the driver turns 80. The relationship between crashes and test performance needed to be studied to inform the debate regarding the testing system. The population studied was all drivers who entered this licensing system during its first three years of operation. They were defined as crash involved if they were involved in an injury crash during the two years following their first licensure under the new system. Logistic regression was used to describe the risk of crash involvement in terms of driving test performance and other driver characteristics. Each driving test failure was associated with a 33% increase in the odds of crash involvement (95% CI 14% to 55%), controlling for age, gender, minor traffic violations, and whether the older driver lived with another licensed driver or not. Minor traffic violations in the two years following the driving test were associated with twice the odds of crash involvement. These results suggest that the new on-road driving test does identify older driver behaviors or limitations that are related to crash liability. It is anticipated that the results presented here will provide essential information for discussing older driver licensing systems, whose impact will grow in importance as the population of drivers ages.     

Characteristics and risks of drivers with low annual distance driven

OBJECTIVES: It has been noted by several authors that risk (defined only in terms of total expected numbers of crash involvements per total distance driven) paints a misleading picture of crash liability, particularly for the young and the old, as their high risk is associated with risky driving patterns typical of people who drive low annual kms. This article sets out to analyze these driving patterns of low-km drivers and to evaluate the risk of these patterns. As licensing programs tend to focus on young and old drivers, who tend to drive lower annual distances, income and employment data are also analyzed for low-km drivers. This is to provide a better picture for policy makers of the sort of people and the sorts of transportation requirements that their policies may affect. METHODS: Crash data and travel data were disaggregated by driver characteristics and by driving conditions (road type, day and night, weekend and weekday) and combined to form estimates of risk for typical driving patterns of driver groups. Characteristics of driving patterns and of the drivers themselves were derived for groups defined by age and by the amount of annual driving undertaken. RESULTS: Older drivers who drive less tend to have higher risk per km mainly due to their predominantly urban trips. Nevertheless, because older drivers on average manage to reduce their risk per distance driven by choosing driving patterns that are safer than the driving patterns of other age groups, the risk of older drivers as a group is not overestimated. CONCLUSION: Despite being quite different from one another, the low- and high-km driving patterns of younger drivers were found to impose identical risks.     

Older driver crash rates in relation to type and quantity of travel

It is a well-established phenomenon that, notwithstanding their overall good crash record, older drivers have a higher than average rate of involvement in injury crashes when the rate is calculated by dividing crash numbers by distance driven. It has been hypothesised that at least some of this higher crash rate is an artefact of the different nature of driving undertaken by many older drivers. For example, driving in congested urban environments provides more opportunities for collisions than driving the same distance on a motorway. However, there have been few opportunities to investigate this theory, as relevant data are difficult to acquire. High-quality data from the New Zealand Travel Survey (1997/1998) were combined with crash data to enable a statistical model to estimate the risk of driver groups under various driving conditions characterised by the type of road used, time of day, day of week, and season of year. Despite elevated crash risks per distance driven compared with middle-aged drivers for most road types, older drivers were as safe as any other age group when driving on motorways. Accounting for the fragility of older drivers and their passengers in the risk estimates for other road types, older drivers appeared to have daytime risks comparable to 25-year-olds and night-time risks as low as any other age group. The driving patterns of older drivers (in terms of when and where they drive) were estimated to minimize their risks in comparison with the driving patterns of other age groups. These results are of interest to both policy makers and transportation planners working against the background of inevitable increases in the number of older drivers as the population ages.