Monochlorobenzene Marine Risk Assessment with Special Reference to the Osparcom Region: North Sea

This risk assessment on monochlorobenzene was carried out for the marine environment, following methodology given in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1996). Data from analytical monitoring programmes in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area were collected and evaluated for effects and environmental concentrations. Risk is indicated by the ratio of predicted environmental concentration (PEC) to predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total, 27 data for fish, 24 data for invertebrates and 13 data for algae were evaluated. Acute and chronic toxicity studies were taken into account and appropriate assessment factors used to define a final PNEC value of 32 micro/l. Recent monitoring data indicate that monochlorobenzene levels in surface waters are below determination limits of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5 microg/l used in monitoring programs. Assuming that half of the lowest determination (0.1 microg/l) is typical, a PEC of 0.05 microg/l was derived. A worst case of 0.5 microg/l is assumed. PEC/PNEC ratios give safety factors of 60 to over 500, taking no account of dilution in the sea. Monochlorobenzene is not a 'toxic, persistent and liable to bioaccumulate' substance sensu the Oslo and Paris Conventions for the Prevention of Marine Pollution (OSPAR-DYNAMEC) criteria. Environmental fate and effects data indicate that current use of monochlorobenzene poses no unacceptable risk to the aquatic environment.     

Dichloromethane Marine Risk Assessment with Special Reference to the Osparcom Region: North Sea

This risk assessment on dichloromethane was carried out specifically for the marine environment, following methodology given in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1997). The study consists of collection and evaluation of data on effects and environmental concentrations from analytical monitoring programs in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area. The risk is indicated by the ratio of 'predicted environmental concentrations' (PEC) to 'predicted no-effect concentrations' (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total, 23 studies for fish, 17 studies for invertebrates and 6 studies for algae were evaluated. Both acute and chronic toxicity studies were taken into account and appropriate assessment factors used to define a PNEC value of 830 microg/l. Most of the available monitoring data apply to rivers and estuaries and were used to calculate PECs. The most recent data (1983--1995) support a typical PEC for dichloromethane lower than 0.2 microg/l and a worst case PEC of 13.6 microg/l. Dichloromethane is not a 'toxic, persistent and liable to bioaccumulate' substance sensu the Oslo and Paris Conventions for the Prevention of Marine Pollution (OSPAR-DYNAMEC). The calculated PEC/PNEC ratios give margins of 60 to 4000 between the PNEC and PEC, dilution within the sea would further increase these margins. It can be concluded that the present use of dichloromethane does not present a risk to the marine aquatic environment.     

Japanese carbon storage in materials

The NEAT model (Nonenergy-use Emission Accounting Tables) has been developed in order to estimate CO2 emissions caused by so-called nonenergy use of fossil fuels. The model is based on material flow accounting. The model has been applied to a number of countries in order to validate and improve its use. This paper discusses the case study for Japan. The NEAT analysis suggests that emissions in 1996 were 23 Mt higher than previously estimated based on the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This quantity equals 1.9% of the total Japanese greenhouse gas emission. It is recommended to adjust the Japanese emission accounting practice and to apply more detailed emission estimation methods in future years. Given similar results for other countries it is also recommended to improve the IPCC guidelines.     

Hydrogen and transportation: alternative scenarios

If hydrogen (H₂) is to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and oil use, it needs to displace conventional transport fuels and be produced in ways that do not generate significant greenhouse gas emissions. This paper analyses alternative ways H₂ can be produced, transported and used to achieve these goals. Several H₂ scenarios are developed and compared to each other. In addition, other technology options to achieve these goals are analyzed. A full fuel cycle analysis is used to compare the energy use and carbon (C) emissions of different fuel and vehicle strategies. Fuel and vehicle costs are presented as well as cost-effectiveness estimates. Lowest hydrogen fuel costs are achieved using fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage. The fuel supply cost for a H₂ fuel cell car would be close to those for an advanced gasoline car, once a large-scale supply system has been established. Biomass, wind, nuclear and solar sources are estimated to be considerably more expensive. However fuel cells cost much more than combustion engines. When vehicle costs are considered, climate policy incentives are probably insufficient to achieve a switch to H₂. The carbon dioxide (CO₂) mitigation cost would amount to several hundred US$ per ton of CO₂. Energy security goals and the eventual need to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations could be sufficient. Nonetheless, substantial development of related technologies, such as C capture and storage will be needed. Significant H₂ use will also require substantial market intervention during a transition period when there are too few vehicles to motivate widely available H₂ refueling.

日本的碳储量

为估计所谓的非能源用途矿物燃料排放的CO2,建立了NEAT(Nonenergy use Emission Accounting Tables,非能源排放统计表)模型.物质流动的统计是该模型的基础.NEAT模型已在许多国家应用,以便验证该模型并促进其应用.本文讨论日本的研究案例.NEAT分析表明:1996年的CO2排放量比以前政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)指导原则基础上的估计高出23t,相当于日本温室气体总排放量的1.9%.因此,在未来几年,调整日本的排放计算方法,提供更为详细的排放估计方法是可取的.鉴于其它国家的相似结果,建议改进IPCC的指导原则.     

Euro Chlor Risk Assessment for the Marine Environment Osparcom Region: North Sea - Trichloroethylene

This risk assessment on trichloroethylene (TRI) was carried out specifically for the marine environment, according to the methodology laid down in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and the Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1997). The study consists of the collection and evaluation of data on effects and environmental concentrations from analytical monitoring programs in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area. The risk is indicated by the ratio of the "predicted environmental concentrations" (PEC) and the "predicted no effect concentrations" (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total, 19 studies for fish, 30 studies for invertebrates and 14 studies for algae have been evaluated. Both acute and chronic toxicity studies have been taken into account and the appropriate assessment factors have been used to define a PNEC value of 150 µg/l. Most of the available monitoring data apply to rivers and estuaries and were used to calculate PECs. The most recent data (1991-1995) support a typical PEC of 0.1 µg TRI/l water and a worst case PEC of 3.5 µg TRI/l water. The calculated PEC/PNEC ratios give a safety margin of 40 to 1,500 between the predicted no effect concentration and the exposure concentration. Additional evaluation of environmental fate and bioaccumulation characteristics showed that no concern for food chain accumulation is expected.     

1,2-Dichlorobenzene Marine Risk Assessment with Special Reference to the Osparcom Region: North Sea

This risk assessment on 1,2-dichlorobenzene was carried out for the marine environment, following methodology given in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1996). Data from analytical monitoring programmes in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area were collected and evaluated on effects and environmental concentrations. Risk is indicated by the ratio of predicted environmental concentration (PEC) to predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total, 26 data for fish, 24 data for invertebrates and 17 data for algae were evaluated. Acute and chronic toxicity studies were taken into account and appropriate assessment factors used to define a final PNEC value of 37 microg/l. All available monitoring data indicate that 1,2-dichlorobenzene levels in estuaries are below 0.1 microg/l. Worst case concentrations in rivers are below 0.45 microg/l. With this value, calculated PEC/PNEC ratios give safety margins of 100 to 300, taking no account of dilution in the sea. 1,2-dichlorobenzene is not a 'toxic, persistent and liable to bioaccumulate' substance sensu the Oslo and Paris Convention for the Prevention of Marine Pollution (OSPAR-DYNAMEC) criteria. Environmental fate and effects data indicate that current use of 1,2-dichlorobenzene poses no risk to the aquatic environment.     

Carbon Tetrachloride Marine Risk Assessment with Special Reference to the Osparcom Region: North Sea

Accurate estimates of stressor levels in unsampled streams would provide valuable information for managing these resources over large regions. Spatial interpolation of stream characteristics have rarely been attempted, partly because defining separation distances between distinct stream samples is not straightforward. That is, conventional Eulerian definitions of separation distance may not apply to stream networks where information flows along distinct paths. A two-stage model for estimating stressor levels in unsampled streams is presented. Mean characteristics within streams are predicted usign a generalized additive model and residual variation is estimated using a conventional application of spatial statistics. The model is developed and tested using stream survey data collected in the state of Maryland, USA. Model efficiency is compared for three stream variables (nitrate concentration, sulfate concentration, and epifaunal substrate score) known to be associated with biological impairments in streams. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation in the residual variation improved model R2 from 0.71 to 0.81 for nitrate, from 0.29 to 0.63 for sulfate, and from 0.21 to 0.31 for epifaunal substrate score.     

1,4-Dichlorobenzene Marine Risk Assessment with Special Reference to the Osparcom Region: North Sea

This risk assessment on 1,4-dichlorobenzene was carried out for the marine environment, following methodology given in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1996). Data from analytical monitoring programs in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area were collected and evaluated on effects and environmental concentrations. Risk is indicated by the ratio of predicted environmental concentration (PEC) to predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total, 17 data for fish, 9 data for invertebrates and 7 data for algae were evaluated. Acute and chronic toxicity studies were taken into account and appropriate assessment factors used to define a final PNEC value of 20 microg/l. Recent monitoring data indicate that 1,4-dichlorobenzene levels in coastal waters and estuaries are below the determination limit of 0.1 microg/l used in monitoring programs. The worst case value recorded in river water is below 0.45 microg/l. Using these values, calculated PEC/PNEC ratios give safety margins of about 40-200, taking no account of dilution in the sea. Environmental fate and bioaccumulation data indicate that current use of 1,4-dichlorobenzene poses no risk to the aquatic environment.     

Energy technology modelling of major carbon abatement options

The International Energy Agency Energy Technologies Perspectives (ETP) model is used to assess the prospects for carbon abatement options, including carbon capture and storage, up to 2050. Three main scenarios are considered: a Baseline scenario with current energy policies, an accelerated technology scenario that seeks to return energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2050 to their level in 2005, and a scenario for which CO₂ emissions are reduced at 50% of current levels by 2050. To reach these emissions reduction targets, annual global CO₂ emissions in the year 2050 must be reduced by 35 GtCO₂ to 48 GtCO₂ compared to the Baseline scenario. The analysis presented here shows that a broad portfolio of emissions reducing technologies will need to be deployed across all economic sectors of the global economy to reach these targets. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one of the suite of technologies employed across the globe to reach these targets. CCS adoption occurs in many aspects of the global economy and accounts for 14–19% of all emissions reductions. The total amount of CO₂ captured and stored in deep geologic reservoirs up to 2050 ranges between 5.1 GtCO₂ and 10.4 GtCO₂ in these two climate policy scenarios. Up to 2030, more than half of total CCS deployment takes place in OECD countries. After 2035, emerging economies account for more than half of total CCS use. This paper also demonstrates that as the climate policy becomes more stringent it will be necessary for CCS to deploy more extensively in many different industries outside of the electric power sector which often receives the most attention in discussions of CCS's role in addressing climate change.