Range-restricted, specialist Bornean butterflies are less likely to recover from ENSO-induced disturbance

The forest fires induced by the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 1997-1998 resulted in the temporary extirpation of more than 100 lowland butterfly species at a forest site in Borneo. Species with more restricted ranges were less likely to recover over the following four years. Matched-pair analyses revealed that species with lower initial abundances, restricted geographic ranges, and more specialized larvae were less likely to return. Specialization differed predictably between the (more generalist) wide-range and (more specialized) restricted-range species in our data set, and both geographic range and level of specialization were important in multivariate models. These are the first observations directly linking extent of occurrence, ecological specialization, and observed recovery following local extirpation. If recovery time exceeds the frequency of disturbance, local extirpation can lead to local extinction. Given that ENSO-induced disturbances are increasing in frequency, in severity, and in geographic scale, these results suggest that specialist species with restricted geographic ranges could be at particularly high risk of global extinction.     

Prediction of the Transport and Dispersal of Oil in the South Caspian Sea Resulting from Blowouts

A 3-D hybrid flow/transport model is developed to predict the dispersal of oil pollution in coastal waters. The transport module of the model takes predetermined current and turbulent diffusivities and uses Lagrangian tracking to predict the motion of individual particles (droplets), the sum of which constitutes a hypothetical oil spill. Currents and turbulent diffusivities used in the model are generated by a numerical ocean circulation model (POM) implemented for the Caspian Sea. The basic processes affecting the fate of the oil spill are taken into account and parameterised in the transport model. The process of evaporation is modeled with the pseudo-component approach. The model is implemented for a simulated continuous release in the coastal waters of the south part of the Caspian Sea. Numerical experiments simulate 5- and 10-day blowout scenarios resulting from sources situated in areas were intensive and extensive development of oil deposits is expected soon. Oil slick movement and risk of coastline contamination by beaching of offshore oil spills are illustrated for different wind conditions.