技术变化模拟及其在气候政策模型中的应用

技术变化是应对气候变化问题的关键。对技术变化的模拟和分析能够识别技术变化的作用．在评估减排成本以及确定减排目标时起到重要作用。但是早期的气候政策模型通常将技术变化视为非经济的外生变量，因而无法对技术变化的起因和效果做深入分析。近年来的气候政策模型则开始逐渐利用内生方法模拟技术变化。在介绍内生技术变化的概念及与传统的外生技术变化的区别的基础上，重点介绍和评述研发投入和技术学习这两种主要的内生技术变化模拟方法的原理、特点以及如何在不同的气候政策模型中得到应用。但是现有建模方法无法表征技术变化过程中的动态性、不确定性等特征，因而传统的建模方法需要扩展到一个更为综合的框架并需要更坚实的实证研究基础上。基于该框架介绍内生技术变化模拟方法的未来可能拓展。     

Analysis of Environmental and Socio-economic Determinants Affecting Population Longevity Level at County Level in China

INTRODUCTIONIn recent thirty years, due to the decreasing fertility andincreasing life expectancy, China's population is aging ata very rapid pace and the elderly population size is keepingon growing. During the dramatic aging progress, the oldestold group in China is catching our eyes. More and moreold people of China are becoming the oldest old. Theextremely old population (aged 80 and above) is increasingat 5.1% annually, while the old population above 65 isincreasing at 2.9%, and the…     

A Marine Pollution Study of Northeast Coastal Water Off Taiwan Island

The coastal water of northeast Taiwan island, called 'Yin-Yang Hai' for its distinct yellow colour compared with blue offshore water, was investigated from 1989 to 1990 by the authors. Biological study showed the dominant species of plankton to be Copepoda, Cladocera, planktonic eggs and Diatoma. Dominant species of benthos were young crabs, Amphipoda and Annelida, with Amphipoda usually occurring in heavily polluted areas. Heavy metal data showed that the concentration of copper was high. the copper and iron concentration in algae of the intertidal zone was also high. the concentrations of iron and copper in inshore water were also higher than in offshore water. By comparison of the pH and salinity distribution of this area, we conclude that this coastal water has been polluted by acid waste water from coastal industry. the suspended solids concentration in sea water is high. Flocculation occurring at the boundary of fresh and saline water might be a reason for the distinct yellow colour of the water of this area. Further study is required.     

Study on cooperative strategies of rural water environment governance PPP project between companies and farmers from the perspective of evolutionary game

Environment, Development and Sustainability - The PPP mode of rural water environment governance was conducive to attracting social capital for giving full play to the decisive role of the market...     

基于洪涝风险分析的纽约市城市绿地规划设计及其对中国的启示

1968年美国开始推行洪涝保险计划,不断完善对洪涝风险的研究,并逐步形成了一套相对完善的洪泛区管理体系,而洪涝风险分析在洪涝保险、城市规划、土地开发、应急管理等领域广泛应用。纽约市在经历了多次飓风侵害,尤其是2012年飓风桑迪（Sandy）之后,意识到城市绿地在极端暴雨事件时对雨洪调蓄的重要作用,经过持续的研究实践,提出了基于洪涝风险分析的城市绿地规划设计要求。基于总结美国纽约市在飓风桑迪影响下对洪涝风险图的调整,及其对城市绿地规划设计相关要求,提出其对我国洪涝风险管控及城市绿地规划设计的启示。     

基于在线监测+模型的海绵城市建设径流水量控制效果研究

以青岛市海绵城市典型项目区为研究区,通过收集、整理和概化汇水区资料,构建了研究区降雨径流模型——SWMM模型。利用2018年雨季的降雨-径流实时监测数据,进行了模型关键参数的率定和模型验证,研究了海绵城市建设在削减径流量、增加入渗与滞蓄雨量方面的定量效果。结果显示:海绵改造后,不同降雨强度下形成径流的雨量占总雨量的平均比例由56%下降至29%;下渗雨水的平均比例由40%增加至60%,滞蓄深度由0.63 mm增加至5 mm。海绵改造前后研究区场降雨径流总量控制率变化显著,当以1~10年一遇的短历时（120 min）设计降雨作为模型边界条件进行模拟时,海绵化改造后场次降雨径流总量控制率提高了26%~34%,认为研究区基本达到了海绵城市关于水量控制的建设要求。     

Dynamic nano-Ag colloids cytotoxicity to and accumulation by Escherichia coli: Effects of Fe3+, ionic strength and humic acid

Released Ag ions or/and Ag particles are believed to contribute to the cytotoxicity of Ag nanomaterials, and thus, the cytotoxicity and mechanism of Ag nanomaterials should be dynamic in water due to unfixed Ag particle:Ag⁺ ratios. Our recent research found that the cytotoxicity of PVP-Ag nanoparticles is attributable to Ag particles alone in 3 hr bioassays, and shifts to both Ag particles and released Ag⁺ in 48 hr bioassays. Herein, as a continued study, the cytotoxicity and accumulation of 50 and 100 nm Ag colloids in Escherichia coli were determined dynamically. The cytotoxicity and mechanisms of nano-Ag colloids are dynamic throughout exposure and are derived from both Ag ions and particles. Ag accumulation by E. coli is derived mainly from extracellular Ag particles during the initial 12 hr of exposure, and thereafter mainly from intracellular Ag ions. Fe³⁺ accelerates the oxidative dissolution of nano-Ag colloids, which results in decreasing amounts of Ag particles and particle-related toxicity. Na⁺ stabilizes nano-Ag colloids, thereby decreasing the bioavailability of Ag particles and particle-related toxicity. Humic acid (HA) binds Ag⁺ to form Ag⁺-HA, decreasing ion-related toxicity and binding to the E. coli surface, decreasing particle-related toxicity. HA in complex conditions showed a stronger relative contribution to toxicity and accumulation than Na⁺ or Fe³⁺. The results highlighted the cytotoxicity and mechanism of nano-Ag colloids are dynamic and affected by environmental factors, and therefore exposure duration and water chemistry should be seriously considered in environmental and health risk assessments.     

Metabolomic modulations in a freshwater microbial community exposed to the fungicide azoxystrobin

An effective broad-spectrum fungicide, azoxystrobin (AZ), has been widely detected in aquatic ecosystems, potentially affecting the growth of aquatic microorganisms. In the present study, the eukaryotic alga Monoraphidium sp. and the cyanobacterium Pseudanabaena sp. were exposed to AZ for 7 days. Our results showed that 0.2–0.5 mg/L concentrations of AZ slightly inhibited the growth of Monoraphidium sp. but stimulated Pseudanabaena sp. growth. Meanwhile, AZ treatment effectively increased the secretion of total organic carbon (TOC) in the culture media of the two species, and this phenomenon was also found in a freshwater microcosm experiment (containing the natural microbial community). We attempted to assess the effect of AZ on the function of aquatic microbial communities through metabolomic analysis and further explore the potential risks of this compound. The metabonomic profiles of the microcosm indicated that the most varied metabolites after AZ treatment were related to the citrate cycle (TCA), fatty acid biosynthesis and purine metabolism. We thereby inferred that the microbial community increased extracellular secretions by adjusting metabolic pathways, which might be a stress response to reduce AZ toxicity. Our results provide an important theoretical basis for further study of fungicide stress responses in aquatic microcosm microbial communities, as well as a good start for further explorations of AZ detoxification mechanisms, which will be valuable for the evaluation of AZ environmental risk.     

长江中下游环境DNA宏条形码生物多样性检测技术初步研究

长江生物多样性在人为影响下面临严重威胁,物种监测是生物多样性保护的基础,为完善长江水生态监测体系,实现高效无损伤的物种监测,在长江中下游干流3个江段（新滩、安庆和芜湖）采集水样,建立长江水样环境DNA宏条形码物种检测体系并评估其有效性.结果表明:①长江中下游环境DNA宏条形码检测到32个物种,包括20种鱼类、1种水生哺乳动物（长江江豚）和11种陆生动物,其中鱼类物种包括鲤形目、鲇形目、鲈形目和鲱形目,其种数占鱼类总种数的比例分别为60%、25%、10%和5%.②长江中下游渔获物中资源量居首位的鲤形目在环境DNA调查中序列数最多,占鱼类总序列的96.2%,其次为鲱形目（占比为3.5%）,鲇形目和鲈形目占比较低,分别为0.2%和0.1%,4个类目序列相对丰度与渔获物种资源量组成差异较大.③环境DNA调查次数约占传统渔获物调查次数的几十至几百分之一,采样时间不足努力量最少的渔获物调查的1%,检测到的鱼类种数为传统调查总数的31%~49%.④安庆采样点位于长江中下游长江江豚密度最高的江段,其环境DNA检出率和序列相对丰度在3个采样点中均最高.研究显示:长江水样环境DNA包含水陆复合生态系统的生物多样性信息,利用水样环境DNA宏条形码可检测不同类群的水生和陆生物种;对于鱼类物种检测,环境DNA宏条形码比传统调查方法效率更高,可对传统调查结果进行补充;环境DNA宏条形码生物多样性检测主要受分子标记体系和核酸序列数据库限制,获取全面的物种多样性和资源量信息需要对检测分析方法进行进一步完善.      

北京市气温与黑碳和PM2.5对疾病死亡影响的交互效应

通过收集北京市2010~2016年逐日呼吸和心脑血管疾病死亡数据、污染物（BC、PM_2.5、SO₂、O₃和NO₂）日均浓度资料以及同期的气象资料,采用广义相加模型（GAMs）中的主效应模型、非参数二元响应模型和温度分层模型探讨了北京市气温、PM_2.5和BC单效应,以及气温与PM_2.5和BC交互作用分别对呼吸和心脑血管疾病死亡人数的影响.单效应分析结果表明,气温与两种疾病死亡人数的累计暴露-反应关系均呈“J”型分布特征,最适温度为24℃;累计滞后一天情况下PM_2.5和BC的健康效应均最显著,此时PM_2.5和BC浓度每升高四分位间距（IQR）,呼吸系统疾病死亡人数超额增加百分比（ER）分别为2.21%和1.80%,心脑血管疾病死亡人数ER分别为2.02%和1.48%.交互作用的研究结果表明,高温与高浓度的PM_2.5（或BC）对疾病死亡的影响存在协同效应,且高温条件下BC对疾病死亡影响的健康风险大于PM_2.5,当气温大于24℃时,BC和PM_2.5浓度每升高IQR对应的呼吸系统疾病死亡人数ER分别为6.22%和6.17%,心脑血管疾病死亡人数ER分别为5.01%和3.97%.虽然BC只占PM_2.5的一部分,但BC对人群健康的影响不容忽视,应该引起足够的重视.