Auditing the precision and accuracy of environmental impact predictions in Australia

Our understanding of natural ecosystems can be measured by our ability to predict their responses to external disturbances. Predictions made during environmental impact assessment (EIA) for major development projects are hypotheses about such responses, which can be tested with data collected in environmental monitoring programmes. The systematic comparison of predicted and actual impacts has been termed environmental impact audit. Ecosystem disturbances associated with major resource developments, though of lesser magnitude than those associated with natural cataclysms, are generally of far greater magnitude than those which can be applied experimentally. Environmental audit can hence provide critical tests of theory in a number of natural sciences. It is also needed to improve the scientific content of EIA. Audits of 4 and 29 EISs respectively have been carried out previously in the UK and USA, but this is the first national scale audit for any country. It is also the first attempt to select, from the many vague statements in EISs, only those predictions that are scientifically testable, and to determine and analyse their quantitative accuracies. Its principal results are as follows. The average accuracy of quantified, critical, testable predictions in environmental impact statements in Australia to date is 44%±5% s.e. Predictions where actual impacts proved more than expected were on average significantly (p<0.05) less accurate (33%±9%) than those where they proved as or less severe (53%±6%).     

在波罗的海不同的气候条件下模拟的海面温度和热通量

本文使用由不同的全球模拟所产生的区域性耦合海洋-大气模型,通过数值模型试验探讨了波罗的海气候未来可能的物理状况.将一些情景以及近来的一些气候模拟情况作了比较,以估计气候变化.海面温度总体平均明显地增高2.9℃.平均年平均增温的水平模式主要可由冰盖的减少解释.由大气向波罗的海的热输送表现出季节性变化周期秋季热损失减少,春季热吸收增加,夏季热吸收减少.年际间海面温度的变化一般是在增加.这与北部一些中平滑的频率分布有关.全部热收支表示出海面太阳辐射在增加,而太阳辐射增加由热通量其他组成成分的变化所平衡.     

CCall--healthy and successful work in call centres.

Call centre workplaces are in many ways a challenge to occupational health and safety. The occupation itself can be described as an IT information technology-supported, communication-intensive form of work with often unusual working hours and a high rate of part-time employment. Data on the employee turnover as well as absenteeism related to occupational disability is quite contradictory. Occupational safety and its proponents still have to find new ways into the corporate structures and cultures of this relatively new and rapidly growing branch of industry. In a 2-year research and development project, using a holistic approach and under consideration of all the relevant disciplines, call centre workplaces were studied, and organisational measures were developed and field tested by putting them into practice. Practical help was developed for a sustainable strategy for successful and healthy work in call centres.     

Power matters in closing the phenotyping gap

Much of our understanding of physiology and metabolism is derived from investigating mouse mutants and transgenic mice, and open-access platforms for standardized mouse phenotyping such as the German Mouse Clinic (GMC) are currently viewed as one powerful tool for identifying novel gene-function relationships. Phenotyping or phenotypic screening involves the comparison of wild-type control mice with their mutant or transgenic littermates. In our study, we explored the extent to which standardized phenotyping will succeed in detecting biologically relevant phenotypic differences in mice generated and provided by different collaborators. We analyzed quantitative metabolic data (body mass, energy intake, and energy metabolized) collected at the GMC under the current workflow, and used them for statistical power considerations. Our results demonstrate that there is substantial variability in these parameters among lines of wild-type C57BL/6 (B6) mice from different sources. Given this variable background noise in mice that serve as controls, subtle phenotypes in mutant or transgenic littermates may be overlooked. Furthermore, a phenotype observed in one cohort of a mutant line may not be reproducible (to the same extent) in mice coming from a different environment or supplier. In the light of these constraints, we encourage researchers to incorporate information on intrastrain variability into future study planning, or to perform advanced hierarchical analyses. Both will ultimately improve the detectability of novel phenotypes by phenotypic screening. Carola W. Meyer and Ralf Elvert contributed equally to this work.     

Daytime resolved analysis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban aerosol samples - impact of sources and meteorological conditions

Urban aerosol was collected in a summer and a winter campaign for 7 and 3 days, respectively. Low volume samples were taken with a time resolution of 160 min using a filter/sorption cartridge system extended by an ozone scrubber. Concentrations of mainly particle associated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and oxidised PAH (O-PAH) were determined by gas chromatography/high resolution mass spectrometry. The sampling site was located in the city centre of Augsburg, Germany, near major roads with high traffic volume. The daily concentrations and profiles were mainly governed by local emissions from traffic and domestic heating, as well as by the meteorological conditions. During the winter campaign, concentrations were more than 10 fold higher than during the summer campaign. Highest concentrations were found concurrent with low boundary layer heights and low wind speeds. Significant diurnal variation of the PAH profiles was observed. Enhanced influences of traffic related PAH on the PAH profiles were evident during daytime in summer, whereas emissions from hot water generation and domestic heating were obvious during the night time of both seasons. A general idea about the global meteorological situation was acquired using back trajectory calculations (NOAA ARL HYSPLIT4). Due to high local emissions in combination with low air exchange during the two sampling campaigns, effects of mesoscale transport were not clearly observable.     

Remote sampling of a CO2 point source in an urban setting

High frequency CO₂ and wind speed measurements were used to examine the urban baseline eddy covariance CO₂ flux and analyse the CO₂ rich plume from a local power station. A reliable relationship between high frequency CO₂ maxima and the rate of CO₂ emission at the power station was established. This relationship was shown to be highly dependant on wind speed. The ensemble mean plume was found to be Gaussian in horizontal profile with a width dependant on wind speed. The relationship between peak CO₂ mixing ratio and averaging time was shown to be a simple power law with a time exponent of approximately 0.5. The large, short pulses in CO₂ mixing ratio in the power plant plume were found to have an approximately Lorentzian shape. These pulses generated negative vertical eddy flux measurements so data from the plume sector were necessarily excluded from the flux baseline results. The plume-excluded flux had a similar magnitude and variability to those reported in other urban CO₂ flux studies despite this site not being ideal due to the proximity of roughness elements to the measurement point.     

Organophosphorus flame retardants and plasticizers in the atmosphere of the North Sea

Air samples collected in the German part of the North Sea from March to July 2010 were investigated for organophosphorus compounds (OPs) being applied as flame retardants and plasticizers. The ∑₈OPs concentration ranged from 110 to 1400 pg m⁻³ while tris(2-chloroisopropyl) phosphate (TCPP) dominated all samples with individual concentrations up to 1200 pg m⁻³. The highest concentrations were observed in continental air masses showing the high influence of industrialized regions including production sites on atmospheric emissions and concentrations. The occurrence of OPs even in oceanic/Arctic air masses shows that OPs can undergo long-range atmospheric transport. Dry particle-bound deposition fluxes from 9 to 240 ng m⁻² d⁻¹ for ∑₈OPs were estimated leading to a minimum annual flux of 710 ± 580 kg y⁻¹ OPs into the German North Sea. This study presents the first occurrence of OPs in the marine atmosphere together with important information on their long-range transport potential.