支持西印度洋地区海洋和海岸带资源可持续管理的海洋研究

西印度洋(WIO)地区以其迷人的海岸带、丰富的海洋生物多样性以及富饶的海洋和海岸带资源而著称.但是地处WIO地区的许多国家像肯尼亚、莫桑比克、索马里、南非、坦桑尼亚、科摩罗、马达加斯加、毛里求斯、留尼旺、塞舌尔等却极度贫困,特别是近二三十年以来,该地区的环境退化现象以及自然资源和生物多样性的下降越来越明显.     

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The Science of Nature -     

Ternäre Verbindungen von Cadmiumhalogeniden mit Arsen und Antimon

The Science of Nature -     

A hierarchical Bayesian model for forecasting state-level corn yield

Historically, the National Agricultural Statistics Service crop forecasts and estimates have been determined by a group of commodity experts called the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The corn yield forecasts for the “speculative region,” ten states that account for approximately 85 % of corn production, are based on two sets of monthly surveys, a farmer interview survey and a field measurement survey. The members of the ASB subjectively determine a forecast on the basis of a discussion of the survey data and auxiliary information about weather, average planting dates, and crop maturity. The ASB uses an iterative procedure, where initial state estimates are adjusted so that the weighted sum of the final state estimates is equal to a previously-determined estimate for the speculative region. Deficiencies of the highly subjective ASB process are lack of reproducibility and a measure of uncertainty. This paper describes the use of Bayesian methods to model the ASB process in a way that leads to objective forecasts and estimates of the corn yield. First, we use small area estimation techniques to obtain state-level forecasts. Second, we describe a way to adjust the state forecasts so that the weighted sum of the state forecasts is equal to a previously-determined regional forecast. We use several diagnostic techniques to assess the goodness of fit of various models and their competitors. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to fit the models to both historic and current data from the two monthly surveys. Our results show that our methodology can provide reasonable and objective forecasts of corn yields for states in the speculative region.     

A synchronized amphibian metamorphosis assay as an improved tool to detect thyroid hormone disturbance by endocrine disruptors and apolar sediment extracts

Amphibian metamorphosis assays are used to evaluate potential effects of endocrine disrupting compounds on the thyroid hormone axis. In this study, Xenopus laevis tadpoles are kept in a solution of 0.2% thiourea (TU) to arrest and synchronise them in their development. The advantage of this synchronized amphibian metamorphosis assays is that synchronised tadpoles are available at any time to start metamorphosis experiments, and experimental groups are much more homogenous at the start of experimental exposure compared with groups selected from an untreated pool of animals. The water volume per animal was kept constant throughout the experimental period to overcome the influence of declining numbers of animals per aquarium due to metamorphosis and mortality on the density dependent development of the remaining tadpoles. Clophen A50 (a technical PCB mixture), the single congener 3,3',4,4'-tetrachlorobiphenyl (PCB 77) and apolar sediment extracts that were previously tested positive in the T-Screen, an in vitro proliferation assay for thyroid hormone disruption, were tested in the Synchronized Amphibian Metamorphosis Assay. Endpoints studied were mortality, malformations, body weight, and percentage of metamorphosed froglets at the end of the 60-day experimental period, percentage of tadpoles in different developmental stages, and developmental stage-dependent awarded penalty points. Dietary exposure to Clophen A50 (0.2-50mg/kg food) resulted in a significant increased percentage of tadpoles that did not pass metamorphosis at concentrations higher than 2mg/kg food. Time until metamorphosis in those animals that were able to metamorphose after the 60-days experimental period was significantly decreased. Dietary exposure to PCB 77, a congener that can be readily metabolised, did not result in significant effects in any exposure group (2-500 microg/kg food). Apolar sediment extracts from two of the three sites that are contaminated with a wide variety of chemicals significantly decreased the percentage of metamorphosed animals and significantly increased the number of tadpoles that remained in early and late metamorphic stages. These effects already occurred when the extracts where diluted more than 1000 times (on an organic carbon base) compared to environmental concentrations. The rank of potency was comparable to results obtained with the T-screen. This suggests the presence of thyroid hormone disrupting compounds in the aquatic environment and possible effects of such compounds on animal development in the wild.     

Deliberative democracy meets democratised science: a deliberative systems approach to global environmental governance

The main achievements of the debates on deliberative democracy and democratised science are investigated in order to analyse the reasons, meanings and prospects for a democratisation of global environmental policy. A deliberative systems approach, which emphasises the need to explore how processes in societal spheres interact to shape the deliberative qualities of the system as a whole, is adopted. Although science plays a key role in this, its potential to enhance deliberative capacity has hardly been addressed in deliberative theories. The democratisation of science has potential to contribute to the democratisation of global environmental policy, in that it also shapes the potential of deliberative arrangements in the policy sphere. Deliberative arrangements within the policy sphere may stimulate the democratisation of science to different degrees.     

Sorption dynamics of organic and inorganic phosphorus compounds in soil

Phosphorus retention in soils is influenced by the form of P added. The potential impact of one P compound on the sorption of other P compounds in soils has not been widely reported. Sorption isotherms were utilized to quantify P retention by benchmark soils from Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina when P was added as inorganic P (Pi) or organic P (beta-D-glucose-6-phosphate, G6P; adenosine 5'-triphosphate, ATP; and myoinositol hexaphosphate, IP6) and to determine whether soil P sorption by these organic P compounds and Pi was competitive. Isotherm supernatants were analyzed for pH and total P using standard protocols, while Pi and organic P compounds were assayed using ion chromatography. Under the controlled conditions of this study, the affinity of all soils for P sources followed the order IP6 > G6P > ATP > Pi. Each organic P source had a different potential to desorb Pi from soils, and the order of greatest to least Pi desorption was G6P > ATP > IP6. Glucose-6-phosphate and ATP competed more directly with Pi for sorption sites than IP6 at greater rates of P addition, but at the lesser rates of P addition, IP6 actually desorbed more Pi. Inositol hexaphosphate was strongly sorbed by all three soils and was relatively unaffected by the presence of other P sources. Decreased total P sorption due to desorption of Pi can be caused by relatively small additions of organic P, which may help explain vertical P movement in manured soils. Sorption isotherms performed using Pi alone did not accurately predict total P sorption in soils.     

Recent levels of organochlorine pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls in sediments of the sewer system in Hanoi, Vietnam

The occurrence, temporal trend, sources and toxicity of PCBs and organochlorine pesticides were investigated in sediment samples from the sewer system of Hanoi City, including the rivers Nhue, To Lich, Lu, Set, Kim Nguu and the Yen So Lake. In general, the concentrations of the pollutants followed the order DDTs > PCBs > HCHs (β-HCH) > HCB. However, the pollution pattern was different for the DDTs and PCBs when the sampling locations were individually evaluated. The concentrations of the DDTs, PCBs, HCHs, and HCB ranged from 4.4 to 1100, 1.3 to 384, <0.2 to 36 and <0.2 to 22 ng/g d.w., respectively. These levels are higher than at any other location in Vietnam. Compared to measurements from 1997, the DDTs, PCBs, β-HCH and HCB levels show an increasing trend with DDT/DDE ratios, indicating very recent inputs into the environment although these persistent compounds are banned in Vietnam since 1995.