Multistate models for monitoring individual trees in permanent observation plots

This interdisciplinary research on forest ecosystems begins with some characteristics of ecosystems which are the basis for the derivation of statistical models for the development and vitality of trees. Several ecological problems which could be solved by longitudinal studies are mentioned. Statistical methods for the evaluation of the crowns of spruce trees (Picea abies Karst) in three permanent observation plots in Switzerland are described. In particular, the time-dependent proportional odds model and a transitional model are used. Through application of these multistate models the data give information on the dependence of an ordered categorical response variable on covariates characterizing the ecosystem. The response variable is observed through infrared aerial photographs. This monitoring system gives insight into the dynamic behaviour of the forest ecosystem. The need for more eco-systematically motivated statistical research using longitudinal studies is identified.     

Statistical aspects of inhalation toxicokinetics

The statistical analysis of dynamic processes is a useful tool to learn how environmental and ecological systems work and how they respond to disturbances. In the context of human risk assessment of potentially harmful chemicals, many complex dynamic processes in terms of kinetics have to be taken into account. Thorough research of direct influence of chemicals to humans depends on investigations with animalsin vivo andin vitro. However, when animals serve as models of human systems, one critical step is the extrapolation from the risk observed in the experimental animals to the risk associated with the human organism. To extrapolate the observed risk in this case, the detailed knowledge of the relevant kinetic processes as well as their differences between species is fundamental. On the other hand experimental tools for these processes are quite restrictive. Based on simple experimental designs a statistical method is proposed for characterizing such kinetic processes using the well-known compartmental analysis tool and non-linear regression. The methodology is then exemplified by non-invasive toxicokinetic inhalation experiments with rats.     

Robust trend tests with application to toxicology

In most real data situations in the one-way design both the underlying distribution and the shape of the dose-response curve are a priori unknown. The power of a trend test strongly depends on both. However, tests which are routinely used to analyze toxicological assays must be robust. We use nonparametric tests with different scores—powerful for different distributions—and different contrasts—powerful for different shapes—and use the maximum of all test statistics as a new test statistic. Simulation results indicate that this maximum test, which is a nonparametric multiple contrast test, stabilizes the power for various shapes and distributions. The investigated tests are applied to the data of a toxicological assay.