The decision to mitigate exposures from vapor intrusion (VI) is typically based on limited data from 24‐hour air samples. It is well documented that these data do not accurately represent long‐term average exposures linked to adverse health effects. Limited decision guidance is currently available to determine the most appropriate sampling strategy, considering the cost of sampling alternatives along with the economic consequences of exposure‐related health effects. We present a decision model that introduces economic and statistical considerations in evaluating alternative VI sampling methods. The model characterizes the best sampling method by factoring economic and health consequences of exposure, the variability of exposure, the cost of sampling and mitigation, and the likelihood of false‐negatives and false‐positives. Decision‐makers can use results to select the sample size that maximizes net benefit. Conceptual and mathematical models are presented linking biological, statistical, and economic considerations to assess the cost and effectiveness of different sampling strategies. The model relates an average exposure concentration, determined statistically, to abatement costs and to the monetary value of health deterioration. The value of the information provided by different strategies is calculated and used to select the optimum sampling method. Simulations show that longer‐term sampling methods tend to be more accurate and cost‐effective than short‐term samples. The ideal sampling strategy shows significant seasonal variation (it is typically optimal to use longer samples in the winter) and also varies significantly with the stringency of regulatory standards. Longer‐term sample collection provides a more accurate representation of average VI exposure and reduces the likelihood of type I and type II errors. This reduces expected costs of mitigation and exposure (e.g., health consequences, legal and regulatory penalties), which in some cases can be quite significant. The model herein shows how these savings are balanced against the additional costs of longer‐term sampling. 相似文献
Both China’s national subsidy policies for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) purchasers and passenger cars corporate average fuel consumption and new vehicle credit regulation (dual-credit policy) favor long-range 300+ km battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and 80+ km plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). However, these electric vehicles tend to have lower energy efficiency and higher purchase and operation costs. Vehicle with larger batteries can also be less equitable because the subsidies are often provided to more expensive vehicles and wealthier owners. This study takes advantage of a novel dataset of daily driving data from 39,854 conventional gasoline vehicles in Beijing and 4999 PHEVs in Shanghai to determine the optimal range of BEVs and PHEVs within their respective cities. We simulate a model to explore ranges with which PEVs emit less GHGs than that of a baseline hybrid and conventional gasoline vehicle while ensuring that all daily travel demands are met. Our findings indicate that in both cities, the optimal ranges to balance cost and travel demand for BEVs are 350 km or less and for PHEVs are 60 km or less in Beijing and 80 km or less in Shanghai. We also find that to minimize carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, the ranges are even lower 10 km in Beijing and 30 km in Shanghai. Our study suggests that instead of encouraging long-range PEVs, governments should subsidize PEV models with shorter ranges. Parallel efforts should also be made to both increase renewable energy over fossil fuels and expand charging facilities. Although individual mobility demand varies, the government could reduce occasional long-distance driving by subsidizing alternative transportation choices. Providing week-long driving trials to consumers before their purchases may help decrease the demand of very long range PEVs by alleviating the range anxiety through a learning process.
Summary The evolution of cooperation requires either (a) nonrandom interactions, such that cooperators preferentially interact with other cooperators, or (b) conditional behaviors, such that individuals act cooperatively primarily towards other cooperators. Although these conditions can be met without assuming sophisticated animal cognition, they are more likely to be met if animals can remember individuals with whom they have interacted, associate past interactions with these individuals, and base future behavior on this information. Here we show that guppies (Poecilia reticulata), in the context of predator inspection behavior, can identify and remember (for at least 4 h) the more cooperative among two conspecifics and subsequently choose to be near these individuals in future encounters.
Offprint requests to: L.A. Dugatkin 相似文献
McMurdo Station is the largest research station in Antarctica, with a population that ranges each year from 250 to 1200 people. Because of its size and 40-year history of use, a number of locations around the station have become contaminated with wastes. Soils and sediments in these areas have been shown to contain elevated levels of petroleum-related products, PCBs, other organics, and metals. While some remedial investigations have been conducted, background levels of metals in soils have not been determined. This paper reports on background levels of metals in a natural basalt-derived soil (gray soil) and scoria (soft porous rock used as fill, red soil) near McMurdo Station using two fundamentally different analytical procedures, concentrated acid extraction/analysis and total metals. These data facilitate determining the extent and levels of metal contamination near McMurdo Station and provide reference levels of metals for comparison with existing and future remediation data. There were statistically significant differences between metals concentrations in both gray and red soils, and no correlations between the level of extracted versus total metal. Generally, only a small fraction of a metal was extractable. 相似文献
Selective termination by intracardiac potassium chloride injection was performed in twins discordant for hydrocephaly at 20 weeks' gestation. Because of the potential for vascular anastomoses to exist between the twins, fetal angiography was performed prior to the selective termination procedure. Determination of vascular connections between the fetuses was hindered by fetal bradycardia following intracardiac administration of contrast material. Selective termination was performed without difficulty using intracardiac potassium chloride (KCl) to produce asystole in the twin with hydrocephaly. The unaffected fetus appeared active and had a normal heart rate during and immediately after the procedure. However, both twins were found to have died the following day. Pathologic examination documented several vascular anastomoses between the monochorionic, diamniotic fetuses. A likely cause of death was exsanguination of the normal twin into the abnormal one. This case illustrates the difficulties encountered in selective termination of monozygotic twins and, to our knowledge, represents the first reported use of intrauterine fetal angiography. 相似文献
A survey was conducted of the results of mid-trimester diagnostic amniocenteses in the Oxford Region from 1974 to 1981. The survey used data relating to all 4357 singleton pregnancies in which an amniocentesis was performed during this period. Follow-up information on outcome was obtained in respect of 4284 (98 per cent) pregnancies. A cell culture to determine karyotype and an alpha-fetoprotein determination was carried out in all cases. From 1974 to 1981 amniocenteses became increasingly common, rising from 2 to 32 per 1000 births. The most common indication for amniocentesis was a high risk of a chromosome abnormality–56 per cent of all amniocenteses. Within this group advanced maternal age was responsible for 89 per cent of the cases. The next most common indication was a high risk of a neural tube defect (37 per cent of all amniocenteses)–in 1974 a raised maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein level accounted for only 4 per cent of these; by 1981 this had risen to 67 per cent. There were seven false-positive and 132 true-positive diagnoses of neural tube defect; since 1981, with the introduction of amniotic fluid acetylocholinesterase determination as a secondary diagnostic test for neural tube defects, there have been no further false-positive diagnoses. In 1981 76 per cent of women aged 35 years or more did not have an amniocentesis. It is not known to what extent this was due to not offering women in this age group amniocentesis or to women not accepting such an offer. 相似文献
Fetal nucleated erythrocytes (NRBC) in maternal blood are a non-invasive source of fetal DNA for prenatal genetic screening. We compared the effectiveness of three monoclonal antibodies for the separation of fetal cells from maternal blood by flow sorting. Mononuclear blood cells from 49 healthy pregnant women were incubated with antibody to CD 71, CD 36, and/or glycophorin A (GPA), employed singly or in combination with each other. These monoclonal antibodies recognize surface antigens on haematopoietic precursor cells. Successful isolation of fetal cells was defined as detection of Y chromosomal sequences in maternal blood from women carrying male fetuses, with absence of Y sequences when female fetuses were carried. Thus, gender prediction accuracy was used as a measure of fetal cell separation. Using anti-CD 71 to isolate fetal cells, gender prediction was 57 per cent correct; with anti-CD 36, it was 88 per cent correct. Anti-GPA, an erythrocyte-specific antigen, used alone or in combination with anti-CD 71 or 36, improved gender prediction to 100 per cent. We conclude that antibody to GPA improves the retrieval of fetal NRBC from maternal blood, permitting genetic analysis by the polymerase chain reaction. 相似文献
The problem of resolving the homology of the digits of the avian hand has been framed as a conflict between paleontological and embryological evidence, the former thought to support a hand composed of digits I, II, III, because of similarity of the phalangeal formulae of the earliest known bird Archaeopteryx to that of Mesozoic pentadactyl archosaurs, while embryological evidence has traditionally favored a II, III, IV avian hand. We have identified the critical developmental period for the major features of the avian skeleton in a primitive bird, the ostrich. Analysis of digit anlagen in the avian hand has revealed those for digits/metacarpals I and V, thus confirming previous embryological studies that indirectly suggested that the avian hand comprises digits II, III, IV, and was primitively pentadactyl. 相似文献