Scenario Analysis for the San Pedro River, Analyzing Hydrological Consequences of a Future Environment

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The San Pedro River in Arizona and Sonora, Mexico is an area that has undergone rapid changes in land use and cover, and subsequently is facing keen environmental crises related to water resources. It is the location of a number of studies that have dealt with change analysis, watershed condition, and most recently, alternative futures analysis. The previous work has dealt primarily with resources of habitat, visual quality, and groundwater related to urban development patterns and preferences. In the present study, previously defined future scenarios, in the form of land-use/land-cover grids, were examined relative to their impact on surface-water conditions (e.g., surface runoff and sediment yield). These hydrological outputs were estimated for the baseline year of 2000 and predicted twenty years in the future as a demonstration of how new geographic information system-based hydrologic modeling tools can be used to evaluate the spatial impacts of urban growth patterns on surface-water hydrology.     

Global scale emission and distribution of sea-spray aerosol: Sea-salt and organic enrichment

The chemical composition of marine aerosols as a function of their size is an important parameter for the evaluation of their impact on the global climate system. In this work we model fine particle organic matter emitted by sea spray processes and its influence on the aerosol chemical properties at the global scale using the off-line global Chemistry-Transport Model TM5. TM5 is coupled to a microphysical aerosol dynamics model providing size resolved information on particle masses and numbers. The mass of the emitted sea spray particles is partitioned between water insoluble organic matter (WIOM) and sea salt components in the accumulation mode using a function that relates the emitted organic fraction to the surface ocean chlorophyll-a concentrations. The global emission in the sub-micron size range of organic matter by sea spray process is 8.2 Tg yr^?1, compared to 24 Tg fine yr^?1 sea-salt emissions. When the marine sources are included, the concentrations of modelled primary particulate organic matter (POM) increase mainly over the oceans. The model predictions of WIOM and sea salt are evaluated against measurements carried out at Mace Head (Northern Hemisphere) and Amsterdam Island (Southern Hemisphere), showing that in clean marine conditions WIOM marine emissions contribute significantly to POM values.     

extended study of atmospheric heavy metal deposition in lithuania based on moss analysis

The use of different moss species – Hylocomium splendens,Pleurozium schreberi, Eurhynchium angustirete, Sphagnum and Rhytidiadelphus – was tested for the investigation of atmosphericheavy metal deposition. Maps representing heavy metal depositionpattern in Lithuania are presented for Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb and V.The most suitable species for heavy metal deposition studies was Hylocomium splendens in which the concentrations of metalswere found to be up to 25% higher than in other species. Interspeciesand interelemental comparison was also performed. Several well definedlocal pollution sources were identified.     

Impacts of Decentralized Power Generation on Distribution Networks: a Statistical Typology of European Countries

The development of decentralized sources of power out of renewable sources of energies has been triggering far-reaching consequences for Distribution System Operators over the past decade in Europe. Our paper benchmarks across 23 European countries the impact of the development of renewables on the physical characteristics of power distribution networks and on their investments. It builds on a large spectrum of databases of quantitative indicators about the dynamics of installed capacity of renewable energy resources and the power generation out of them, electricity independence, quality of electricity distribution, smart grids investments, Network System Operators capital expenditures, length of the distribution networks, overall costs of power networks paid by private agents, and electricity losses, all in relation with the development of decentralized generation. The heterogeneity of these indicators across Europe appears to be wide notably because of physical constraints, historic legacies, or policy and regulatory choices. A cluster analysis allows for deriving six groups of countries that display statistically homogenous characteristics. Our results may provide decision makers and regulators with a tool helping them to concentrate on the main issues specific to their countries as compared to the European median, and to look for possible solutions in the experience of other clusters which are shown to perform better for some indicators.     

Linking biophysical models and public preferences for ecosystem service assessments: a case study for the Southern Rocky Mountains

Through extensive research, ecosystem services have been mapped using both survey-based and biophysical approaches, but comparative mapping of public values and those quantified using models has been lacking. In this paper, we mapped hot and cold spots for perceived and modeled ecosystem services by synthesizing results from a social-values mapping study of residents living near the Pike–San Isabel National Forest (PSI), located in the Southern Rocky Mountains, with corresponding biophysically modeled ecosystem services. Social-value maps for the PSI were developed using the Social Values for Ecosystem Services tool, providing statistically modeled continuous value surfaces for 12 value types, including aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values. Biophysically modeled maps of carbon sequestration and storage, scenic viewsheds, sediment regulation, and water yield were generated using the Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services tool. Hotspots for both perceived and modeled services were disproportionately located within the PSI’s wilderness areas. Additionally, we used regression analysis to evaluate spatial relationships between perceived biodiversity and cultural ecosystem services and corresponding biophysical model outputs. Our goal was to determine whether publicly valued locations for aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values relate meaningfully to results from corresponding biophysical ecosystem service models. We found weak relationships between perceived and biophysically modeled services, indicating that public perception of ecosystem service provisioning regions is limited. We believe that biophysical and social approaches to ecosystem service mapping can serve as methodological complements that can advance ecosystem services-based resource management, benefitting resource managers by showing potential locations of synergy or conflict between areas supplying ecosystem services and those valued by the public.     

Quantitative tools for implementing the new definition of significant portion of the range in the U.S. Endangered Species Act

In 2014, the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service announced a new policy interpretation for the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). According to the act, a species must be listed as threatened or endangered if it is determined to be threatened or endangered in a significant portion of its range (SPR). The 2014 policy seeks to provide consistency by establishing that a portion of the range should be considered significant if the associated individuals’ “removal would cause the entire species to become endangered or threatened.” We reviewed 20 quantitative techniques used to assess whether a portion of a species’ range is significant according to the new guidance. Our assessments are based on the 3R criteria—redundancy (i.e., buffering from catastrophe), resiliency (i.e., ability to withstand stochasticity), and representation (i.e., ability to evolve)—that the FWS uses to determine if a species merits listing. We identified data needs for each quantitative technique and considered which methods could be implemented given the data limitations typical of rare species. We also identified proxies for the 3Rs that may be used with limited data. To assess potential data availability, we evaluated 7 example species by accessing data in their species status assessments, which document all the information used during a listing decision. In all species, an SPR could be evaluated with at least one metric for each of the 3Rs robustly or with substantial assumptions. Resiliency assessments appeared most constrained by limited data, and many species lacked information on connectivity between subpopulations, genetic variation, and spatial variability in vital rates. These data gaps will likely make SPR assessments for species with complex life histories or that cross national boundaries difficult. Although we reviewed techniques for the ESA, other countries require identification of significant areas and could benefit from this research.     

Local and regional air pollution in Ireland during an intensive aerosol measurement campaign

An intensive two month measurement campaign has been performed during a two year study of major component composition of urban PM10 and PM2.5 in Ireland (J. Yin, A. G. Allen, R. M. Harrison, S. G. Jennings, E. Wright, M. Fitzpatrick, T. Healy, E. Barry, D. Ceburnis and D. McCusker, Atmos. Res., 2005, 78(3-4), 149-165). Measurements included size-segregated mass, soluble ions, elemental carbon (EC) distributions, fine and coarse fraction organic carbon (OC) and major gases along with standard meteorological measurements. The study revealed that urban emissions in Ireland had mainly a local character and therefore were confined within a limited area of 20-30 km radius, without significantly affecting regional air quality. Gaseous measurements have shown that urban emissions in Ireland had clear, but fairly limited influence on the regional air quality due to favorable mixing conditions at higher wind speeds, in particular from the western sector. Size-segregated mass and chemical measurements revealed a clear demarcation size between accumulation and coarse modes at about 0.8 microm which was constant at all sites. Carbonaceous compounds at the urban site accounted for up to 90% of the particle mass in a size range of 0.066-0.61 microm. Nss SO4(2-) concentrations in PM2.5 were only slightly higher at the urban site compared to the rural or coastal sites, while NO3- and NH4+ concentrations were similar at the urban and coastal sites, but were a factor of 2 to 3 higher than at the rural site. OC was highly variable between the sites and revealed clear seasonal differences. Natural or biogenic OC component accounted for <10% in winter and up to 30% in summer of the PM2.5 OC at urban sites. A contribution of biogenic OC component to PM2.5 OC mass at rural site was dominant.     

Variation of the mixing state of Saharan dust particles with atmospheric transport

Mineral dust is an important aerosol species in the Earth’s atmosphere and has a major source within North Africa, of which the Sahara forms the major part. Aerosol Time of Flight Mass Spectrometry (ATOFMS) is first used to determine the mixing state of dust particles collected from the land surface in the Saharan region, showing low abundance of species such as nitrate and sulphate internally mixed with the dust mineral matrix. These data are then compared with the ATOFMS single particle mass spectra of Saharan dust particles detected in the marine atmosphere in the vicinity of the Cape Verde islands, which are further compared with those from particles with longer atmospheric residence sampled at a coastal station at Mace Head, Ireland. Saharan dust particles collected near the Cape Verde Islands showed increased internally mixed nitrate but no sulphate, whilst Saharan dust particles collected on the coast of Ireland showed a very high degree of internally mixed secondary species including nitrate, sulphate and methanesulphonate. This uptake of secondary species will change the pH and hygroscopic properties of the aerosol dust and thus can influence the budgets of other reactive gases, as well as influencing the radiative properties of the particles and the availability of metals for dissolution.     

The strategy for conservation non-renewable natural resources through producing and application solid recovery fuel in the cement industry: a case study for Lithuania

This pilot study aimed to develop a production line for SRF production from RDF by extracting prohibited materials, grinding, and drying, and the energy potential for using SRF in the cement industry as an alternative fuel was evaluated. This paper defined the main characteristics of RDF, which were obtained after the separation of the biological fraction from MSW at an MBT plant. According to its characteristics, RDF can only be used for incineration in the CPP to obtain heat and energy. The produced SRF meets the requirements for fuel from waste and can be used as an alternative fuel for clinker firing. A technological process line for SRF production from RDF has been developed by adding technical units to the existing MBT line. The SRF production line yield was calculated as 4.47 t/h. At the end of the SRF production process, the moisture content of the finished product decreased by 85%, and the volume decreased by 18%. The obtained SRF had a high calorific value, low moisture content, and a permissible value of chlorine and mercury. It was proposed that the produced SRF and sewage sludge (already used during the clinker firing process) be utilized as alternative fuels since they correspond to the oxide composition of the finished clinker in elemental and oxide composition. A calculation to assess the economic and environmental efficiency of the use of SRF in the cement kiln was conducted. The result showed that using 10% SRF as a substitute fuel for coal used in clinker roasting at 1.92 t/h would save 601.7 USD/h coal costs. This use of SRF will emit 3.7 t/h CO₂ and achieve net savings of 754.7 USD/h.