Permafrost and infrastructure in the usa Basin (Northeast European Russia): possible impacts of global warming

The relationship between permafrost conditions and the distribution of infrastructure in the Usa Basin, Northeast European Russia, is analyzed. About 75% of the Basin is underlain by permafrost terrain with various degrees of continuity (isolated patches to continuous permafrost). The region has a high level of urban and industrial development (e.g., towns, coal mines, hydrocarbon extraction sites, railway, pipelines). GIS-analyses indicate that about 60% of all infrastructure is located in the 'high risk' permafrost area, here defined as the zones of isolated to discontinuous permafrost (3-90% coverage) with 'warm' ground temperatures (0 to -2 degrees C). Ground monitoring, aerial photo interpretation, and permafrost modeling suggest a differential response to future global warming. Most of the permafrost-affected terrain will likely start to thaw within a few decades to a century. This forecast poses serious challenges to permafrost engineering and calls for long-term investments in adequate infrastructure that will pay back overtime.     

乌萨盆地(俄罗斯欧洲部分东北部)的多年冻土和基础设施:全球变暖的可能影响

文章分析了位于俄罗斯欧洲部分东北部的乌萨盆地的多年冻土地区环境条件与基础设施分布的关系.规模不一的多年冻土带(从孤立碎片到连续的多年冻土)占了整个盆地的75%.这个地区的城市化和工业化发展水平很高(例如,城镇、煤矿、烃类提炼厂、铁路和管道等).GIS分析表明这个地区的60%的基础设施都位于"高危险"的多年冻土地带,这里的"高危险"的多年冻土地带是指地温达到0～-2℃且孤立的或者不连续的多年冻土区(3%～90%的覆盖度).地温监测、航空相片解译及多年冻土模拟都表明了它们对未来全球变暖响应的差异性.在未来的几十年到一百年内,大多数受多年冻土影响的地区将可能发生解冻.这将对多年冻土区的工程建设提出很大的挑战,同时要求对那些需要经过较长时间才能获得回报的基础设施方案进行远期投资.