Serial Correlation and Inter-annual Variability in Relation to the Statistical Power of Monitoring Schemes to Detect Trends in Fish Populations

We studied the effects of inter-annual variability and serial correlation on the statistical power of monitoring schemes to detect trends in biomass of bream (Abramis brama) in Lake Veluwemeer (The Netherlands). In order to distinguish between 'true' system variability and sampling variability we simulated the development of the bream population, using estimates for population structure and growth, and compared the resulting inter-annual variabilities and serial correlations with those from field data. In all cases the inter-annual variability in the field data was larger than in simulated data (e.g. for total biomass of all assessed bream sigma = 0.45 in field data, and sigma = 0.03-0.14 in simulated data) indicating that sampling variability decreased statistical power for detecting trends. Moreover, sampling variability obscured the inter-annual dependency (and thus the serial correlation) of biomass, which was expected because in this long-lived population biomass changes are buffered by the many year classes present. We did find the expected serial correlation in our simulation results and concluded that good survey data of long-lived fish populations should show low sampling variability and considerable inter-annual serial correlation. Since serial correlation decreases the power for detecting trends, this means that even when sampling variability would be greatly reduced, the number of sampling years to detect a change of 15%.year(-1) in bream populations (corresponding to a halving or doubling in a six-year period) would in most cases be more than six. This would imply that the six-year reporting periods that are required by the Water Framework Directive of the European Union are too short for the existing fish monitoring schemes.     

Relationship Between Crown Condition and Tree Diameter Growth in Southern Swedish Oaks

We studied correlation between crown conditions and tree-ring widths in 260 trees of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) growing on 33 sites in southern Sweden. The tree-ring increment over 1998-2002 was highest in trees with healthy crowns, intermediate in trees with moderately declined crowns, and lowest in trees with heavily declining crowns. The time period with significant correlation between crown status and tree-ring increment varied between 10 years (given autocorrelation in tree-ring chronologies preserved) and 4 years (autocorrelation removed). In pairwise comparisons of three crown classes, differences in tree-ring increment between trees with healthy crowns and trees with heavily declining crowns were the most pronounced, Fisher LSD P value staying below 0.05 over 13 years (autocorrelation preserved ) or 4 years (autocorrelation removed). Over two 5-year periods (1993-1997 vs. 1998-2002) the cumulative increment increased significantly for trees with healthy crowns, did not change in trees with moderately declining crowns, and significantly decreased in trees with heavily declining crowns. For trees with healthy crowns, this dynamics may represent growth recovery after 1992 drought. Instead, oaks with defoliation above 60% appear to reach a threshold in their ability to recover growth. At sites on nutrient-poor soils cumulative increments over 1998-2002 differed significantly among trees with different crown condition and no differences were observed at sites on nutrient-rich soils. Analyses and interpretation of the oak growth trends as recovered from tree-ring chronologies may be improved by controlling for the crown status of the trees sampled, e.g., by using sampling strategy that would represent the average crown and growth conditions of the sites.     

Climate Change and Mitigation

Planet Earth has experienced repeated changes of its climate throughout time. Periods warmer than today as well as much colder, during glacial episodes, have alternated. In our time, rapid population growth with increased demand for natural resources and energy, has made society increasingly vulnerable to environmental changes, both natural and those caused by man; human activity is clearly affecting the radiation balance of the Earth. In the session “Climate Change and Mitigation” the speakers offered four different views on coal and CO₂: the basis for life, but also a major hazard with impact on Earth’s climate. A common denominator in the presentations was that more than ever science and technology is required. We need not only understand the mechanisms for climate change and climate variability, we also need to identify means to remedy the anthropogenic influence on Earth’s climate.     

Reagenzienfreie Bestimmung von Quecksilberspuren in Wasserproben

Routinef?hige, kostengünstige analytische Messverfahren sind die Grundlage für ein fl?chendeckendes Umweltmonitoring von Schadstoffen und somit für die Sicherung unserer Gesundheit und natürlichen Lebensgrundlagen. Hierbei kann die Analytik zur nachhaltigen Nutzung und zur Schonung unserer Umweltressourcen beitragen, indem auf den Einsatz umweltgef?hrdender Reagenzien verzichtet wird.     

Challenges in assessing biological recovery from acidification in Swedish lakes

Since the 1980s, Swedish lakes have in general become less acidified. Assessment of biological recovery is, however, hampered by poor pre-acidification data, confounding effects of climate change, and few lakes with annual sampling of fish and other organisms. Only three critically acidified, but non-limed, lakes had two decades of fish monitoring. The lakes had not yet recovered to pre-industrial chemical targets. Fish had low species richness compared to other organism groups. Roach (Rutilus rutilus) and/or European perch (Perca fluviatilis) were the dominant fish species, and the acid-sensitive roach had been lost from one of the lakes. Calcium decreased, possibly approaching pre-acidification concentrations, but exceeded minimum levels needed to sustain some Daphnia species. High or increasing levels of total organic carbon, likely due to reduced acidification and climate change, might influence the biological communities in unexpected ways, for example, facilitating more frequent occurrence of the invasive algae Gonyostomum semen.     

Uptake of 14C-atropine and/or its transformation products from soil by wheat (Triticum aestivum var Kronjet) and their translocation to shoots

Plant uptake of toxins and their translocation to edible plant parts are important processes in the transfer of contaminants into the food chain. Atropine, a highly toxic muscarine receptor antagonist produced by Solanacea species, is found in all plant tissues and can enter the soil and hence be available for uptake by crops. The absorption of atropine and/or its transformation products from soil by wheat (Triticum aestivum var Kronjet) and its distribution to shoots was investigated by growing wheat in soil spiked with unlabeled or ¹⁴C-labeled atropine. Radioactivity attributable to ¹⁴C-atropine and its transformation products was measurable in plants sampled at 15 d after sowing (DAS) and thereafter until the end of experiment. The highest accumulation of ¹⁴C-atropine and/or its transformation products by plants was detected in leaves (between 73 and 90% of the total accumulated) with lower amounts in stems, roots, and seeds (approximately 14%, 9%, and 3%, respectively). ¹⁴C-Atropine and/or its transformation products were detected in soil leachate at 30, 60, and 90 DAS and were strongly adsorbed to soil, with 60% of the applied dose adsorbed at 30 DAS, plateauing at 70% from 60 DAS. Unlabeled atropine was detected in shoots 30 DAS at a concentration of 3.9 ± 0.1 μg kg^?1 (mean ± SD). The observed bioconcentration factor was 2.3 ± 0.04. The results suggest a potential risk of atropine toxicity to consumers.     

Pd-nanoparticles cause increased toxicity to kiwifruit pollen compared to soluble Pd(II)

In the present study, endpoints including in vitro pollen performance (i.e., germination and tube growth) and lethality were used as assessments of nanotoxicity. Pollen was treated with 5-10 nm-sized Pd particles, similar to those released into the environment by catalytic car exhaust converters. Results showed Pd-nanoparticles altered kiwifruit pollen morphology and entered the grains more rapidly and to a greater extent than soluble Pd(II). At particulate Pd concentrations well below those of soluble Pd(II), pollen grains experienced rapid losses in endogenous calcium and pollen plasma membrane damage was induced. This resulted in severe inhibition and subsequent cessation of pollen tube emergence and elongation at particulate Pd concentrations as low as 0.4 mg L⁻¹. Particulate Pd emissions related to automobile traffic have been increasing and are accumulating in the environment. This could seriously jeopardize in vivo pollen function, with impacts at an ecosystem level.     

Selecting islands and shoals for conservation based on biological and aesthetic criteria

Consideration of biological quality has long been an important component of rating areas for conservation. Often these same areas are highly valued by people for aesthetic reasons, creating demands for housing and recreation that may conflict with protection plans for these habitats. Most methods of selecting land for conservation purposes use biological factors alone. For some land areas, analysis of aesthetic qualities is also important in describing the scenic value of undisturbed land. A method for prioritizing small islands and shoals based on both biological and visual quality factors is presented here. The study included 169 undeveloped islands and shoals ⩽0.8 ha in the Thousand Islands Region of the St. Lawrence River, New York. Criteria such as critical habitat for uncommon plant and animal species were considered together with visual quality and incorporated into a rating system that ranked the islands and shoals according to their priority for conservation management and protection from development. Biological factors were determined based on previous research and a field survey. Visual quality was determined by visual diagnostic criteria developed from public responses to photographs of a sample of islands. Variables such as elevation, soil depth, and type of plant community can be used to classify islands into different categories of visual quality but are unsuccessful in classifying islands into categories of overall biological quality.