Serum alpha-fetoprotein and neural tube defects in the first trimester of pregnancy

As part of the Medical Research Council randomized trial of vitamin supplementation in the prevention of neural tube defects (NTDs), maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) was available for 19 NTD pregnancies. Each of these was matched with four unaffected controls, by maternal age, participating centre, and duration of sample storage. The samples came from women whose gestational age ranged from 6 to 14 completed weeks. The median AFP level in the affected pregnancies was 1·2 multiples of the median value in unaffected pregnancies of the same gestational age (95 per cent confidence interval (CI) 0·83–1·59). This confirmed the view that serum AFP measurement is of no practical value in the detection of NTDs in the first trimester of pregnancy. The study also showed that folic acid supplementation, used as a method of preventing NTDs, had no effect on the concentrations of maternal serum AFP up to 14 weeks of pregnancy.     

Local Environmental Investments and Sustainable Development: the evaluation of environmental projects in Scotland supported by the European Agriculture Guidance and Guarantee Fund

In the UK for the period 1994-99, a broad range of environmental projects were given financial support through the European Agriculture Guidance and Guarantee Fund under the Objective 1 and Objective 5b programmes. This paper is concerned with the ex-post evaluation of these projects set within a Sustainable Development framework. The aim was to identify project types or characteristics that offered the greatest return on investment. A classification of six broad project types was adopted. The evaluation revealed that there were significant differences between individual projects with respect to the type and scale, and temporal and social distribution of the benefits they delivered. In particular, as well as delivering environmental and economic benefits, many projects made a significant contribution to the development of human and social capital. The paper concludes that it is possible to improve the basis for future project selection in order to maximise the returns on environmental investments in the context of sustainable development.     

Evidence of degradation of polybrominated biphenyls in soil samples from michigan

Abstract

Soil samples obtained from the former polybrominated biphenyls (PBB) manufacturing site in Michigan were analyzed by gas chromatography and gas chromatography with mass spectrometric detection. The results indicate significant degradation of the PBB residue in the soil sample. The soil sample with the highest concentration of PBB has the greatest degree of degradation. Principal degradation products include 2,3’,4,4’,5‐pentabromo‐biphenyl, 2,2’,4,4’,5‐pencabromobiphenyl and two unidentified tetrabromobiphenyls.

The degradation pattern observed supports a photochemical decomposition mechanism. These degraded residues may be more toxic than the original Firemaster residues. The implications of the results are discussed.     

Toward accurate and precise estimates of lion density

Reliable estimates of animal density are fundamental to understanding ecological processes and population dynamics. Furthermore, their accuracy is vital to conservation because wildlife authorities rely on estimates to make decisions. However, it is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate density for wide‐ranging carnivores that occur at low densities. In recent years, significant progress has been made in density estimation of Asian carnivores, but the methods have not been widely adapted to African carnivores, such as lions (Panthera leo). Although abundance indices for lions may produce poor inferences, they continue to be used to estimate density and inform management and policy. We used sighting data from a 3‐month survey and adapted a Bayesian spatially explicit capture‐recapture (SECR) model to estimate spatial lion density in the Maasai Mara National Reserve and surrounding conservancies in Kenya. Our unstructured spatial capture‐recapture sampling design incorporated search effort to explicitly estimate detection probability and density on a fine spatial scale, making our approach robust in the context of varying detection probabilities. Overall posterior mean lion density was estimated to be 17.08 (posterior SD 1.310) lions >1 year old/100 km², and the sex ratio was estimated at 2.2 females to 1 male. Our modeling framework and narrow posterior SD demonstrate that SECR methods can produce statistically rigorous and precise estimates of population parameters, and we argue that they should be favored over less reliable abundance indices. Furthermore, our approach is flexible enough to incorporate different data types, which enables robust population estimates over relatively short survey periods in a variety of systems. Trend analyses are essential to guide conservation decisions but are frequently based on surveys of differing reliability. We therefore call for a unified framework to assess lion numbers in key populations to improve management and policy decisions.     

Structure and Content of the Discourse on Climate Change in the Blogosphere: The Big Picture

Based on the texts of 1.3 million blog posts and the structure of the links between the blogs in which these posts appeared, this study presents an analysis of the discourse on climate change in the English-language blogosphere. Our approach combines community detection with probabilistic topic modeling to show how topics related to climate change are discussed across various parts of the blogosphere. We find that there is one community of predominantly climate skeptical blogs but several accepter communities. The topic analysis reveals a series of issues that are characteristic of the climate change discourse in the blogosphere. Two topics, one related to climate change science and one related to climate change politics, are particularly important for characterizing the discourse. We also find that the distribution of topics over the communities cuts across the divide between skeptics and non-skeptics (accepters) and that there are differences in the patterns of interactions between the skeptics and different groups of accepters.     

Ecological tax reforms and environmental benefits in Italy and Sweden

The paper calculates the implications of including monetary measurements of environmental emission changes for the welfare impacts of ecological tax reforms in Italy and Sweden. Taxes on emissions of SO₂, NO_x and CO₂ are investigated. Country-specific computable equilibrium models are used for estimating net welfare changes of the introduction of these taxes, the incomes of which are used for reducing distorting labour taxes. The results indicate that the inclusion of environmental benefits reduces the costs of ecological tax reforms considerably for both countries, and may even turn into net welfare gains.