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Global change, i.e. the mega-process radically transforming the relationship between nature and human civilization since
the end of World War II, is investigated from the point of view of systems analysis. It is argued that this unbridled process
should rather be domesticated by planetary control strategies transpiring from a new science called “geocybernetics”. The
formal aspects of geocybernetic theory are sketched and illustrated in a tutorial theatre world reflecting the overall environment
and development problematic. Within this setting a straightforward operationalization of the sweeping “sustainable development”
ideal through a set of concise paradigms can be achieved. Evidence is provided that geocybernetics is actually feasible on
the basis of earth system modelling and fuzzy-control techniques. 相似文献
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Yu.M. Svirezhev W. von Bloh H.-J. Schellnhuber 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》1999,4(4):287-294
A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers. 相似文献
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The Science of Nature - 相似文献
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