科学的挑战--重视成本效益,清洁波罗的海

波罗的海是世界上受人类活动影响最严重的海洋之一,虽然有减少向波罗的海排放营养物质的国际协议,但迄今为止采取的措施,既没有从根本上减少营养物质的排放,也没有促进环境的改善.部分原因可以归咎为缺少有关物理学、生物地球化学和生态特性之间大尺度关系和相互作用的知识,但是还缺少全流域范围的成本效益分析.错误的决策非常危险,例如,执行的减少排放的方案根本没有效果,或远远达不到成本效益.许多学科的研究者正面临着一个共同的挑战开发一个决策支持系统,作为整个波罗的海成本效益分析法的科学基础.研究项目海洋富营养化的研究(MARE)(http∥www.mare.su.se)正致力于这方面的研究.     

A reflection on four impactful Ambio papers: The biotic perspective: This article belongs to Ambio’s 50th Anniversary Collection. Theme: Climate change impacts

Climate change represents one of the most pressing societal and scientific challenges of our time. While much of the current research on climate change focuses on future prediction, some of the strongest signals of warming can already be seen in Arctic and alpine areas, where temperatures are rising faster than the global average, and in the oceans, where the combination of rising temperatures and acidification due to increased CO₂ concentrations has had catastrophic consequences for sensitive marine organisms inhabiting coral reefs. The scientific papers highlighted as part of this anniversary issue represent some of the most impactful advances in our understanding of the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we reflect on the legacy of these papers from the biotic perspective.     

Management options and effects on a marine ecosystem: assessing the future of the Baltic

We are using the coupled models in a decision support system, Nest, to evaluate the response of the marine ecosystem to changes in external loads through various management options. The models address all the seven major marine basins and the entire drainage basin of the Baltic Sea. A series of future scenarios have been developed, in close collaboration with the Helsinki Commission, to see the possible effects of improved wastewater treatment and manure handling, phosphorus-free detergents, and less intensive land use and live stocks. Improved wastewater treatment and the use of phosphorus-free detergents in the entire region would drastically decrease phosphorus loads and improve the marine environment, particularly the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms. However, the Baltic Sea will remain eutrophic, and to reduce other effects, a substantial reduction of nitrogen emissions must be implemented. This can only be obtained in these scenarios by drastically changing land use. In a final scenario, we have turned 50% of all agricultural lands into grasslands, together with efficient wastewater treatments and a ban of phosphorus in detergents. This scenario will substantially reduce primary production and the extension of hypoxic bottoms, increase water transparency in the most eutrophied basins, and virtually eliminate extensive cyanobacterial blooms.     

Reduction of Baltic Sea Nutrient Inputs and Allocation of Abatement Costs Within the Baltic Sea Catchment

The Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) requires tools to simulate effects and costs of various nutrient abatement strategies. Hierarchically connected databases and models of the entire catchment have been created to allow decision makers to view scenarios via the decision support system NEST. Increased intensity in agriculture in transient countries would result in increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, particularly from Poland, the Baltic States, and Russia. Nutrient retentions are high, which means that the nutrient reduction goals of 135 000 tons N and 15 000 tons P, as formulated in the BSAP from 2007, correspond to a reduction in nutrient loadings to watersheds by 675 000 tons N and 158 000 tons P. A cost-minimization model was used to allocate nutrient reductions to measures and countries where the costs for reducing loads are low. The minimum annual cost to meet BSAP basin targets is estimated to 4.7 billion €.     

Impact of temperature and species interaction on filamentous cyanobacteria may be more important than salinity and increased pCO2 levels

A future business-as-usual scenario (A1FI) was tested on two bloom-forming cyanobacteria of the Baltic Proper, Nodularia spumigena and Aphanizomenon sp., growing separately and together. The projected scenario was tested in two laboratory experiments where (a) interactive effects of increased temperature and decreased salinity and (b) interactive effects of increased temperature and elevated levels of pCO₂ were tested. Increased temperature, from 12 to 16 °C, had a positive effect on the biovolume and photosynthetic activity (F _v/F _m) of both species. Compared when growing separately, the biovolume of each species was lower when grown together. Decreased salinity, from 7 to 4, and elevated levels of pCO₂, from 380 to 960 ppm, had no effect on the biovolume, but on F _v/F _m of N. spumigena with higher F _v/F _m in salinity 7. Our results suggest that the projected A1FI scenario might be beneficial for the two species dominating the extensive summer blooms in the Baltic Proper. However, our results further stress the importance of studying interactions between species.     

Twenty-five years of biomonitoring lead in the Frankfurt/Main area

The present study is an example of the historical monitoring of heavy metals. The specific question it aims to explore is: to what extent has the lead content of selected organisms used for biomonitoring in Frankfurt/Main—one of the cities in Germany most heavily affected by automobile traffic—changed as a result of legislation on leaded gasoline?

Data on the lead content of the moss speciesBryum argenteum Hedw. from the years 1974, 1975 and 1978 and data on the lead content of the outer bark of the ash speciesFraxinus excelsior L. from 1973 served as the basis for the repeated measurements. Remeasurement was successful in 76.5% (i.e. 124 trees at 26 growth sites). The study produced the following results:

• ? As was expected, the lead content of the short-term accumulatorBryum argenteum Hedw. was distinctly lowered with a decreasing particulate lead concentration. However, the reduction factor varied greatly between the different growth sites.
• ? On the other hand, the lead content measured in the outer bark layers ofFraxinus excelsior L. has risen markedly during the past two decades. Whereas in 1973 nearly all trees examined displayed very low concentrations of lead (< 38 ppm), only 9.5% were still in this category in 1997 and nearly 30% exhibited high or even unacceptable lead concentrations (< 150 ppm → > 225 ppm). Various factors have to be taken into account to explain this increase. First of all, bark is a long-term accumulator for heavy metals like lead and its enrichment capacity could have increased as the surface becomes rougher over time. Furthermore, lead is most probably leached out of the bark to a lesser degree now than in the 1970s, owing to the reduced concentration of sulphuric acid in the rain. The dramatic growth of automobile traffic in the Frankfurt/Main area during the period covered by the study undoubtedly plays an important role as well.

     

Searching efficient protection strategies for the eutrophied Gulf of Finland: the combined use of 1D and 3D modeling in assessing long-term state scenarios with high spatial resolution

An experiment combining the use of two ecosystem models was conducted to search for effective protection strategies for the Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea). Reference and scenario simulations were first run with a one-dimensional (1D) model for seven main basins of the entire Baltic Sea until steady state was achieved. The obtained basinwise distributions of inorganic nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), as well as sediment labile P, were then used to initiate 5-y simulations with a three-dimensional (3D) ecosystem model. The results suggest that relatively small local load reductions (the "Finland" scenario) would improve only the state of adjacent coastal waters significantly. This would be the case, even for runs covering several decades, which clearly exceed the residence times of nutrients in the Gulf of Finland. A significant decrease from a substantial loading source to the Gulf (the "St. Petersburg" scenario) would decrease cyanobacterial biomasses in the entire Gulf of Finland and also immediately outside it. A reduction in the current Polish nutrient loads would improve the situation in the whole Baltic Proper and cause an extensive decline in cyanobacterial biomasses in the Gulf of Finland, as well. However, it would take several decades until the improvement caused by reducing loads in the "Poland" scenario is seen, while in the "St. Petersburg" scenario the corresponding time lag would only be a few years. Our results suggest that the common water protection policy in the Baltic Sea region should have the largest nutrient sources as its primary target, regardless of their location and country.     

Animal community structure and energy budget calculations of a Daphnia magna (straus) population in relation to the rock pool environment

The fauna and environmental conditions in a freshwater rock pool ecosystem were followed by a weekly quantitative sampling program from April to August, 1974. The rock pool, situated on a small island in the northern Baltic Sea, was heavily eutrophicated by droppings from the surrounding colony of sea birds. The intermittent flushing of the pool with rainwater and the input of bird droppings, as well as the biological activity, contributed to the large seasonal variations in nutrients and organic matter that were observed. A dense algal bloom of flagellates occurred in April but vanished when the animal population started to increase in the middle of May. During the rest of the summer, most of the photosynthetic pigments were found in the bottom sediment, mostly as degraded phaeo-pigments due to intensive grazing by the animals in the pool. Very few animal taxa were found and the phyllopod Daphnia magna (Straus) dominated throughout the whole sampling period. D. magna contributed to more than 50% of the total biomass, except in late July when chironomid larvae were most abundant. The total biomass in the pool increased from about 15 mg (dry weight) l^?1 in May to a maximum of about 60 mg l^?1 at the end of June. There were few carnivores in the system, except during the spring when the water bug Deronectes griseostriatus (de Geer) was common.Analyses of size, age and sex structure and calculations of birth and death rates of the D. magna population showed large seasonal variations, correlated with the volume fluctuations and flushings of the pool which stimulated both the algal production and the growth and reproduction of Daphnia. Data from the extensive literature that exists on D. magna and other species of the same genus were used, together with field and experimental data from the rock pool population, in a numerical model describing the energy budget of this species. The model describes variations in weight-specific growth, reproduction, moulting, feeding and respiration rates in relation to temperatures and food concentrations. Energy budget relationships that maximise the chances for survival and utilisation of the available energy for a population exposed to varying food concentrations are predicted by the model. The energy budget model was also used to estimate the secondary production of the rock pool population of D. magna. The total production between April and August was 203 mg (dry weight) l^?1 and the average production per biomass ratio was 0.094 day^?1. The average net production efficiency was 42%, very close to other values reported for D. magna from other biotopes. The relative importance of different factors controlling the production was also analysed with the model. Production per biomass ratio was calculated, assuming a constant temperature and/or food concentration for the whole sampling period. The varying food concentrations in the rock pool had the most pronounced influence, greater than that of temperature and size structure variations in the population.