Tipping Points and Climate Change: Metaphor Between Science and the Media

Over the past decade, scientists and journalists have prominently utilized the metaphor of a tipping point for drastic, irreversible and dangerous climate change. This paper shows how the tipping point metaphor became a multi-purpose bridge between science and the news media, describing how its meaning and use developed and diversified in interaction between these two domains. Within the scientific domain, the metaphor developed from a rhetorical device conveying a warning of drastic, irreversible and dangerous climate change to a theoretical concept driving empirical research. The news media soon picked up the tipping point metaphor for abrupt and dangerous climate change, turning it into a common part of the journalistic lexicon. Moreover, both science and the news media developed another, societal use of the tipping point metaphor, calling for radical societal change to avoid climate change catastrophe. The tipping point metaphor is hence not a monolithic notion but a highly versatile concept and expression, allowing it to be used for various communicative purposes by distinct stakeholders in different contexts.     

Modelling Seasonal Dynamics from Temporal Variation in Agricultural Practices in the UK Ammonia Emission Inventory

Most ammonia (NH₃) emission inventories have been calculated on an annual basis and do not take into account the seasonal variability of emissions that occur as a consequence of climate and agricultural practices that change throughout the year. When used as input to atmospheric transport models to simulate concentration fields, these models therefore fail to capture seasonal variations in ammonia concentration and dry and wet deposition. In this study, seasonal NH₃ emissions from agriculture were modelled on a monthly basis for the year 2000, by incorporating temporal aspects of farming practice. These monthly emissions were then spatially distributed using the AENEID model (Atmospheric Emissions for National Environmental Impacts Determination). The monthly model took the temporal variation in the magnitude of the ammonia emissions, as well as the fine scale (1-km) spatial variation of those temporal changes into account to provide improved outputs at 5-km resolution. The resulting NH₃ emission maps showed a strong seasonal emission pattern, with the highest emissions during springtime (March and April) and the lowest emissions during summer (May to July). This emission pattern was mainly influenced by whether cattle were outside grazing or housed and by the application of manures and fertilizers to the land. When the modelled emissions were compared with measured NH₃ concentrations, the comparison suggested that the modelled emission trend corresponds fairly well with the seasonal trend in the measurements. The remaining discrepancies point to the need to develop functional parametrisations of the interactions with climatic seasonal variation.     

The role of indicator choice in quantifying the threat of atmospheric ammonia to the ‘Natura 2000’ network

New ‘critical levels’ (CLE) for assessing the effects of atmospheric ammonia on sensitive ecosystems have recently been adopted by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) of 1 and 3 [2–4] μg NH₃ m^?3 of ambient air (including water vapour), for different species sensitivities and their associated habitats. Based on these values, we examined how indicator choice affects estimates of stock-at-risk in the European ‘Natura 2000’ network.We applied an atmospheric model, FRAME, to estimate surface air concentrations of ammonia at 5 km and 1 km resolution for the UK network of Natura sites, optionally including calibration with the National Ammonia Monitoring Network. As a base indicator, we estimated the overall percentage area of the UK Natura network that exceeded critical level thresholds (‘Area Weighted Indicator’, AWI). We compared this with an alternative approach, estimating the percentage number of Natura sites where the critical level was exceeded (‘Designation Weighted Indicator’, DWI), which we consider more relevant under the terms of the Habitats Directive.Using the AWI (with 1 km calibrated ammonia), we estimate that 11.2%, 1.3% and 0.2% area of the UK Natura network exceeds the critical level values of 1, 2 and 3 μg NH₃ m^?3, respectively. By contrast, using the DWI, the equivalent exceedances are 59.1%, 23.6% and 9.8%. The highest regional exceedance (DWI, critical level 1 μg NH₃ m^?3) was calculated for England (91.9% exceeded), and the lowest for Scotland (24.0% exceeded). High resolution maps show that the larger threat estimated by the DWI approach is explained by (i) an anti-correlation between NH₃ concentration and Natura site area and (ii) the fact that exceedance over part of a Natura site is considered to represent a threat to the integrity of the whole site.     

The influence of sweating on the heat transmission properties of cold protective clothing studied with a sweating thermal manikin.

One of the objectives of the European SUBZERO project was to study the influence of sweat evaporation and condensation on the heat transmission properties of cold protective clothing. With the sweating thermal manikin Coppelius, water vapour transfer through and water condensation in the clothing can be determined simultaneously with the thermal insulation. In this study, 4 cold protective ensembles, intended for use temperatures between 0 and -50 degrees C, were measured with the dry manikin and at 2 different sweating rates. In addition, the ensembles were measured with non-sweating thermal manikins and in wear trials.     

用槐叶苹象甲对塞内加尔河水面的槐叶苹进行有效生物控制

1999年,在毛里塔尼亚和塞内加尔的塞内加尔三角洲下部,槐叶苹(Salvinia moesta)的侵入对当地居民的社会经济状况以及湿地生物多样性构成严重的威胁.分别于2000年5月在塞内加尔和毛里塔尼亚及2001年4月在塞内加尔的河面引进槐叶苹象甲(Cyteobagous salviniae),最终实现了对槐叶苹的有效生物控制.2001年10月,象甲起到的作用已非常明显.植物的颜色由绿色变为深褐色或黑色,槐叶苹最终沉入水底.2001年11～12月对槐叶苹象甲扩散的监控证实了生物控制结果的真实性.至2002年4月已有结论,塞内加尔河畔槐叶苹不再成为问题.     

Modelling the spatial distribution of ammonia emissions in the UK

Ammonia emissions (NH3) are characterised by a high spatial variability at a local scale. When modelling the spatial distribution of NH3 emissions, it is important to provide robust emission estimates, since the model output is used to assess potential environmental impacts, e.g. exceedance of critical loads. The aim of this study was to provide a new, updated spatial NH3 emission inventory for the UK for the year 2000, based on an improved modelling approach and the use of updated input datasets. The AENEID model distributes NH3 emissions from a range of agricultural activities, such as grazing and housing of livestock, storage and spreading of manures, and fertilizer application, at a 1-km grid resolution over the most suitable landcover types. The results of the emission calculation for the year 2000 are analysed and the methodology is compared with a previous spatial emission inventory for 1996.     

Reduced European emissions of S and N--effects on air concentrations, deposition and soil water chemistry in Swedish forests

Changes in sulphur and nitrogen pollution in Swedish forests have been assessed in relation to European emission reductions, based on measurements in the Swedish Throughfall Monitoring Network. Measurements were analysed over 20 years with a focus on the 12-year period 1996 to 2008. Air concentrations of SO₂ and NO₂, have decreased. The SO₄-deposition has decreased in parallel with the European emission reductions. Soil water SO₄-concentrations have decreased at most sites but the pH, ANC and inorganic Al-concentrations indicated acidification recovery only at some of the sites. No changes in the bulk deposition of inorganic nitrogen could be demonstrated. Elevated NO₃-concentrations in the soil water occurred at irregular occasions at some southern sites. Despite considerable air pollution emission reductions in Europe, acidification recovery in Swedish forests soils is slow. Nitrogen deposition to Swedish forests continues at elevated levels that may lead to leaching of nitrate to surface waters.     

Effective biological control of Salvinia molesta in the Senegal River by means of the weevil Cyrtobagous salviniae

The invasion of Salvinia molesta in the Lower Senegal River Delta in Mauritania and Senegal in 1999 posed a serious threat to the socioeconomic conditions of the local people as well as to wetland biodiversity. Eventually, an effective biological control of S. molesta was obtained by means of the weevil Cyrtobagous salviniae, which was introduced in the river in Senegal and Mauritania in May 2000 and in Senegal in April 2001. In October 2001, it became apparent that the weevils were doing a magnificent job. The color of the plants was turning from green to dark-brown or black, and subsequently the plants started to sink to the bottom. Detailed monitoring of the dispersal of C. salviniae in November-December 2001 confirmed the visual observations of the outcome of biological control. In April 2002, it could be concluded that S. molesta was no longer a problem in the Senegal River.