Landslide probability mapping by considering fuzzy numerical risk factor (FNRF) and landscape change for road corridor of Uttarakhand,India

Landslide poses severe threats to the natural landscape of the Lesser Himalayas and the lives and economy of the communities residing in that mountainous topography. This study aims to investigate whether the landscape change has any impact on landslide occurrences in the Kalsi-Chakrata road corridor by detailed investigation through correlation of the landslide susceptibility zones and the landscape change, and finally to demarcate the hotspot villages where influence of landscape on landslide occurrence may be more in future. The rational of this work is to delineate the areas with higher landslide susceptibility using the ensemble model of GIS-based multi-criteria decision making through fuzzy landslide numerical risk factor model along the Kalsi-Chakrata road corridor of Uttarakhand where no previous detailed investigation was carried out applying any contemporary statistical techniques. The approach includes the correlation of the landslide conditioning factors in the study area with the changes in land use and land cover (LULC) over the past decade to understand whether frequent landslides have any link with the physical and hydro-meteorological or, infrastructure, and socioeconomic activities. It was performed through LULC change detection and landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM), and spatial overlay analysis to establish statistical correlation between the said parameters. The LULC change detection was performed using the object-oriented classification of satellite images acquired in 2010 and 2019. The inventory of the past landslides was formed by visual interpretation of high-resolution satellite images supported by an intensive field survey of each landslide area. To assess the landslide susceptibility zones for 2010 and 2019 scenarios, the geo-environmental or conditioning factors such as slope, rainfall, lithology, normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI), proximity to road and land use and land cover (LULC) were considered, and the fuzzy LNRF technique was applied. The results indicated that the LULC in the study area was primarily transformed from forest cover and sparse vegetation to open areas and arable land, which is increased by 6.7% in a decade. The increase in built-up areas and agricultural land by 2.3% indicates increasing human interference that is continuously transforming the natural landscape. The landslide susceptibility map of 2019 shows that about 25% of the total area falls under high and very high susceptibility classes. The result shows that 80% of the high landslide susceptible class is contained by LULC classes of open areas, scrubland, and sparse vegetation, which point out the profound impact of landscape change that aggravate landslide occurrence in that area. The result acclaims that specific LULC classes, such as open areas, barren-rocky lands, are more prone to landslides in this Lesser Himalayan road corridor, and the LULC-LSM correlation can be instrumental for landslide probability assessment concerning the changing landscape. The fuzzy LNRF model applied has 89.6% prediction accuracy at 95% confidence level which is highly satisfactory. The present study of the connection of LULC change with the landslide probability and identification of the most fragile landscape at the village level has been instrumental in delineation of landslide susceptible areas, and such studies may help the decision-makers adopt appropriate mitigation measures in those villages where the landscape changes have mainly resulted in increased landslide occurrences and formulate strategic plans to promote ecologically sustainable development of the mountainous communities in India's Lesser Himalayas.

     

Understanding implications of consumer behavior for wildlife farming and sustainable wildlife trade

Unsustainable wildlife trade affects biodiversity and the livelihoods of communities dependent upon those resources. Wildlife farming has been proposed to promote sustainable trade, but characterizing markets and understanding consumer behavior remain neglected but essential steps in the design and evaluation of such operations. We used sea turtle trade in the Cayman Islands, where turtles have been farm raised for human consumption for almost 50 years, as a case study to explore consumer preferences toward wild‐sourced (illegal) and farmed (legal) products and potential conservation implications. Combining methods innovatively (including indirect questioning and choice experiments), we conducted a nationwide trade assessment through in‐person interviews from September to December 2014. Households were randomly selected using disproportionate stratified sampling, and responses were weighted based on district population size. We approached 597 individuals, of which 37 (6.2%) refused to participate. Although 30% of households had consumed turtle in the previous 12 months, the purchase and consumption of wild products was rare (e.g., 64–742 resident households consumed wild turtle meat [i.e., 0.3–3.5% of households] but represented a large threat to wild turtles in the area due to their reduced populations). Differences among groups of consumers were marked, as identified through choice experiments, and price and source of product played important roles in their decisions. Despite the long‐term practice of farming turtles, 13.5% of consumers showed a strong preference for wild products, which demonstrates the limitations of wildlife farming as a single tool for sustainable wildlife trade. By using a combination of indirect questioning, choice experiments, and sales data to investigate demand for wildlife products, we obtained insights about consumer behavior that can be used to develop conservation‐demand‐focused initiatives. Lack of data from long‐term social–ecological assessments hinders the evaluation of and learning from wildlife farming. This information is key to understanding under which conditions different interventions (e.g., bans, wildlife farming, social marketing) are likely to succeed.     

Impact of floodplain and Stage 0 stream restoration on flood attenuation and floodplain exchange during small frequent storms

River flooding impacts human life and infrastructure, yet provides habitat and ecosystem services. Traditional flood control (e.g., levees, dams) reduces habitat and ecosystem services, and exacerbates flooding elsewhere. Floodplain restoration (i.e., bankfull floodplain reconnection and Stage 0) can also provide flood management, but has not been sufficiently evaluated for small frequent storms. We used 1D unsteady Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System to simulate small storms in a 5 km-long, second-order generic stream from the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and varied % channel restored (starting at the upstream end), restoration location, restoration bank height (distinguishes bankfull from Stage 0 restoration), and floodplain width/Manning's n. Stream restoration decreased (attenuated) peak flow up to 37% and increased floodplain exchange by up to 46%. Floodplain width and % channel restored had the largest impact on flood attenuation. The incremental effects of new restoration projects on flood attenuation were greatest when little prior restoration had occurred. By contrast, incremental effects on floodplain exchange were greatest in the presence of substantial prior restoration, setting up a tradeoff. A similar tradeoff was revealed between attenuation and exchange for project location, but not bank height or floodplain width. In particular, attenuation and exchange were always greater for Stage 0 than for bankfull floodplain restoration. Stage 0 thus may counteract human impacts such as urbanization.     

Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Molecular phylogeny and population structure of tideland snails in the genus Cerithidea around Japan

Phylogenetic relationships and genetic population structures were analyzed for tideland gastropods in the genus Cerithidea around Japan on the basis of partial sequence of the mitochondrial COI gene. Large genetic divergence was shown between individuals of Cerithidea cingulata in the southern Ryukyus and those in the central Ryukyus and the Japanese Islands. Haplotypes of C. cingulata from the Japanese Islands were paraphyletic with the exclusion of a monophyletic group from the central Ryukyus. Genetic differentiation of C. cingulata was also detected between Amami-Oshima Island and Okinawajima Island. No genetic divergence was found between Cerithidea rhizophorarum in the Japanese Islands and its subspecies C. rhizophorarum morchii in the Ryukyu Islands. The lack of genetic divergence of Cerithidea largillierti between continental China and Japan suggests relatively recent migration between the Japanese Islands and the Asian continent. For all three Cerithidea species distributed in both the Japanese Islands and the Ryukyu Islands, the Tokara Gap and the Kerama Gap were shown to have acted as barriers to the dispersal.