Environmental Bioindication Studies by Bayesian Network with Use of Grey Heron as Model Species

The article presents a procedure for assessing the quality of the environment, using eggshells of birds as a biomarker implemented into a Bayesian network. An environmental quality index (EQI) was proposed and calculated on the basis of local quality indicators. Experimental data on concentrations of toxic elements in grey heron (Ardea cinerea) eggshells (biomarker of river valleys) were used to determine the empirical variables (nodes) and the probability distributions on the set of these variables. A probabilistic graphical model represents a multitude of relationships between variables in a system that enables the prediction of EQI. The model presented is a useful tool for environmental quality management.     

Climate Change and Agricultural Development: Adapting Polish Agriculture to Reduce Future Nutrient Loads in a Coastal Watershed

Currently, there is a major concern about the future of nutrient loads discharged into the Baltic Sea from Polish rivers because they are main contributors to its eutrophication. To date, no watershed-scale studies have properly addressed this issue. This paper fills this gap by using a scenario-modeling framework applied in the Reda watershed, a small (482 km²) agricultural coastal area in northern Poland. We used the SWAT model to quantify the effects of future climate, land cover, and management changes under multiple scenarios up to the 2050s. The combined effect of climate and land use change on N-NO₃ and P-PO₄ loads is an increase by 20–60 and 24–31 %, respectively, depending on the intensity of future agricultural usage. Using a scenario that assumes a major shift toward a more intensive agriculture following the Danish model would bring significantly higher crop yields but cause a great deterioration of water quality. Using vegetative cover in winter and spring (VC) would be a very efficient way to reduce future P-PO₄ loads so that they are lower than levels observed at present. However, even the best combination of measures (VC, buffer zones, reduced fertilization, and constructed wetlands) would not help to remediate heavily increased N-NO₃ loads due to climate change and agricultural intensification.     

Trace element concentrations in livers of Common Buzzards <Emphasis Type="Italic">Buteo buteo</Emphasis> from eastern Poland

In this study, our aim was to determine the common sources of origin of 18 elements in the livers of Common Buzzards collected during the breeding season in an extensive agricultural landscape in south-east Poland with respect to age (adults and immatures) and sex (males and females). In all 34 specimens collected, the element concentrations followed the pattern of S > Na > Fe > Mg > Zn > Si > Cu > Mn > Ba > Se > B > Pb > Hg > Cd > Cr > Ni > Sr > V. Among the heavy metals examined, only the concentration of Pb was relatively high. Given the prevalence of farmland in the studied area (and the wide use of fertilizers), common use of lead-hunting ammunition and moderate concentration of Pb in fertilizers, the indirect influence of hunting ammunition ingested with food or as gastroliths was apparently responsible for the elevated levels of Pb in the livers of Common Buzzards. In our study, no significant sex-related differences were detected in the hepatic concentrations of any element. However, a significant age effect was observed for three elements, which had elevated levels in adults (Hg) and immature birds (B, Pb), and a significant age x sex interaction was found for S and Fe. These results might be explained by the importance of these elements in bone growth in immature birds (B), variable strategies of foraging between adults and immature birds (Pb), and possible intersex differences in the immature cohort in response to the presence of lead (S, Fe).