ModelOps for enhanced decision-making and governance in emergency control rooms

Environment Systems and Decisions - For mission critical (MC) applications such as bushfire emergency management systems (EMS), understanding the current situation as a disaster unfolds is critical...     

Circumpolar status of Arctic ptarmigan: Population dynamics and trends

Rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta) and willow ptarmigan (L. lagopus) are Arctic birds with a circumpolar distribution but there is limited knowledge about their status and trends across their circumpolar distribution. Here, we compiled information from 90 ptarmigan study sites from 7 Arctic countries, where almost half of the sites are still monitored. Rock ptarmigan showed an overall negative trend on Iceland and Greenland, while Svalbard and Newfoundland had positive trends, and no significant trends in Alaska. For willow ptarmigan, there was a negative trend in mid-Sweden and eastern Russia, while northern Fennoscandia, North America and Newfoundland had no significant trends. Both species displayed some periods with population cycles (short 3–6 years and long 9–12 years), but cyclicity changed through time for both species. We propose that simple, cost-efficient systematic surveys that capture the main feature of ptarmigan population dynamics can form the basis for citizen science efforts in order to fill knowledge gaps for the many regions that lack systematic ptarmigan monitoring programs.

     

137Cs and 90Sr in live and dead reindeer lichens (genera Cladonia) from the "Kraton-3" underground nuclear explosion site

The contents of 137Cs and 90Sr have been determined in 29 samples of live and dead reindeer lichens (genera Cladonia) collected at the "Kraton-3" underground nuclear explosion site (65.9 degrees N 112.3 degrees E, event year--1978) in Yakutia, Russia in 2002. The area contamination was within the range of 0.36-700 and 0.13-770 kBq m(-2) for 137Cs and 90Sr, respectively. The dead organisms were on average much more contaminated than the live ones. Vertical fractionation of the live lichen carpet demonstrated maximal activity concentrations of both radionuclides in the lower older section of the plants, while for the dead lichens the maximal activity concentrations of 137Cs were detected in the upper part. The vertical distribution of 90Sr was more or less homogeneous in the cushions of dead lichens. Elevated levels of 137Cs and 90Sr activity concentrations were also detected in the re-establishing young lichens growing over the residua of some dead lichens.     

Long-term stability of decontamination effect in recreational areas near the town Novozybkov, Bryansk Region, Russia

In 1995 and 1997, experimental decontamination campaigns were carried out in two recreational areas, Novie Bobovichi and Guta-Muravinka, near the town of Novozybkov, Bryansk Region, Russia. These areas were strongly affected by the Chernobyl fallout in 1986. In order to examine the long-term stability of the clean-up procedures, a programme has been carried out to continuously monitor the radiological situation in and around the decontaminated areas. This follow-up program consists of regular (1-3 times per year) measurements of absorbed gamma-dose rate in air (DR) at reference indoor and outdoor locations, repeated DR measurements on a grid, and gamma-spectrometric analysis of soil and other environmental samples. Very similar dynamics of the Chernobyl-related DR, mostly attributed to radiocaesium decay, were found in all the locations. For the period under study (September 1995-May 2003), the half-lives (years) for the reduction in radiocaesium-dependent DR contribution due to contaminant migration (in the following termed 'DRM half-lives') were, respectively, 52+/-26, 57+/-23, 43+/-21, 46+/-15, and 80+/-56 for the following locations: untreated outdoors, treated outdoors, untreated indoors, treated indoors, and undisturbed forest-grassland plots outside the recreational areas. These relatively high values of the current DRM half-lives correspond very well with the results of soil core analyses, which showed no time-dependent changes in the mean mass depths of the (137)Cs distribution, neither at treated nor at undisturbed plots. The following signs of natural restoration of the disturbed forest-meadow ecosystems have been observed at treated areas: formation of a new litter layer, development of grassy spots, mushroom growths and new generations of pines and birches. The levels of the (137)Cs content in grass and mushrooms from treated plots were one or two orders of magnitude lower, than those registered in the samples from untreated areas. The follow-up study demonstrates the long-term stability and efficiency of the decontamination carried out. There are two main reasons for the sustainment of the effects: careful implementation of adequate clean-up procedures and natural strong fixation of radiocaesium in soil-associated matrices of the ecosystems.     

Gamma-dose rates from terrestrial and Chernobyl radionuclides inside and outside settlements in the Bryansk Region, Russia in 1996-2003

In order to estimate current external gamma doses to the population of the Russian territories contaminated as a result of the Chernobyl accident, absorbed gamma-dose rates in air (DR) were determined at typical urban and suburban locations. The study was performed in the western districts of the Bryansk Region within the areas of 30 settlements (28 villages and 2 towns) with the initial levels of 137Cs deposition ranging from 13 to 4340 kBqm(-2). In the towns, the living areas considered were private one-story wooden and stone houses. DR values were derived from in situ measurements performed with the help of gamma-dosimeters and gamma-spectrometers as well as from the results of soil samples analysis. In the areas under study, the values of DR from terrestrial radionuclides were 25+/-6, 24+/-5, 50+/-10, 32+/-6, 54+/-11, 24+/-8, 20+/-6, 25+/-8, and 18+/-5 nGyh(-1) at locations of kitchen gardens, dirt surfaces, asphalt surfaces, wooden houses, stone houses, grasslands inside settlement, grasslands outside settlement, ploughed fields, and forests, respectively. In 1996-2001, mean normalized (per MBqm(-2) of 137Cs current inventory in soil) values of DR from (137)Cs were 0.41+/-0.07, 0.26+/-0.13, 0.15+/-0.07, 0.10+/-0.05, 0.05+/-0.04, 0.48+/-0.12, 1.04+/-0.22, 0.37+/-0.07, and 1.15+/-0.19 microGyh(-1) at the locations of kitchen gardens, dirt surfaces, asphalt surfaces, wooden houses, stone houses, grasslands inside settlement, grasslands outside settlement, ploughed fields, and forests, respectively. The radiometric data from this work and the values of occupancy factors determined for the Russian population by others were used for the assessments of annual effective doses to three selected groups of rural population. The normalized (per MBqm(-2) 137Cs current ground deposition) external effective doses to adults from 137Cs ranged from 0.66 to 2.27 mSvy(-1) in the years 1996-2001, in accordance with professional activities and structures of living areas. For the areas under study, the average external effective doses from 137Cs were estimated to be in the range of 0.39-1.34 mSvy(-1) in 2001. The average external effective doses from natural radionuclides appeared to be lower than those from the Chernobyl fallout ranging from 0.15 to 0.27 mSvy(-1).     

Radiostrontium hot spot in the Russian Arctic: ground surface contamination by (90)Sr at the "Kraton-3" underground nuclear explosion site

Strontium-90 activity concentrations in surface soils and areal deposition densities have been studied at a site contaminated by an accidental release to atmosphere from the underground nuclear explosion "Kraton-3" conducted near the Polar Circle (65.9 degrees N, 112.3 degrees E) within the territory of the former USSR in 1978. In 2001-2002, the ground surface contamination at 14 plots studied ranged from 20 to 15 000 kBq m(-2), which significantly exceeds the value of 0.44 kBq m(-2) deduced for three background plots. The zone with substantial radiostrontium contamination extends, at least, 2.5 km in a north-easterly direction from the borehole. The average (137)Cs/(90)Sr ratio in the ground contamination originated from the "Kraton-3" fallout was estimated to be 0.55, which is significantly different from the ratio of 2.05 evaluated for background plots contaminated mostly from global fallout. Although vertical migration of (90)Sr in all undisturbed soil profiles studied is more rapid than that for (137)Cs, the depth of percolation of both radionuclides into the ground is mostly limited to the top 10-20 cm, which may be explained, primarily, by permafrost conditions. The horizontal migration rate of radiostrontium in the aqueous phase exceeds the radiocaesium migration rate by many times. This phenomenon seems to be a reason for the significant enrichment of the soil surface layers by radiostrontium at some sites, with variations occurring in accordance with small-scale irregularities of landscape.     

Surface ground contamination and soil vertical distribution of 137Cs around two underground nuclear explosion sites in the Asian Arctic, Russia

Vertical distributions of 137Cs have been determined in vegetation-soil cores obtained from 30 different locations around two underground nuclear explosion sites--"Crystal" (event year - 1974) and "Kraton-3" (event year - 1978) in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Russia. In 2001-2002, background levels of 137Cs surface contamination densities on control forest plots varied from 0.73 to 0.97 kBq m(-2) with an average of 0.84+/-0.10 kBq m(-2) and a median of 0.82 kBq m(-2). 137Cs ground contamination densities at the "Crystal" site ranged from 1.3 to 64 kBq m(-2); the activity gradually decreased with distance from the borehole. For "Kraton-3", residual surface contamination density of radiocaesium varied drastically from 1.7 to 6900 kBq m(-2); maximal 137Cs depositions were found at a "decontaminated" plot. At all forest plots, radiocaesium activity decreased throughout the whole vertical soil profile. Vertical distributions of 137Cs in soil for the majority of the plots sampled (n=18) can be described using a simple exponential function. Despite the fact that more than 20 years have passed since the main fallout events, more than 80% of the total deposited activity was found in the first 5 cm of the vegetation-soil cores from most of the forested landscapes. The low annual temperatures, clay-rich soil type with neutral pH, and presence of thick lichen-moss carpet are the factors which may hinder 137Cs transport down the soil profile.     

Reduction of external dose in a wet-contaminated housing area in the Bryansk Region, Russia

An investigation of the feasibility of reducing the external dose rate in a recreational housing area located between the settlements of Guta and Muravinka, Bryansk Region, Russia, which had been contaminated by the Chernobyl accident more than a decade earlier was made. Removal of contaminated topsoil was carried out over an area of about 2000 m2, optimising the thickness of the removed layer according to an assessment of the vertical contaminant distribution. A layer of clean sand was applied to shield against radiation from residual contamination in the ground. Careful monitoring of dose rates in reference positions showed that this could reduce the dose rate outdoors by about a factor of 6. The replacement of a roof was found to reduce the dose rate considerably inside the house. A cost analysis of the operation is presented.     

Fine scale structure of convective mixed layer in ice-covered lake

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - Nonstationary convection forced by distributed buoyancy sources is a fundamental environmental fluid mechanics process, particularly in ice-covered freshwater...     

Saving the Aral Sea

Summary This paper examines the causes of ecological disasters which affect the Aral Sea in the former Soviet Union. These lie in an incorrect strategy of economic development in the Soviet Central Asia and Kazakhstan, which pursues a goal of expansion of the irrigated areas under high water-consuming cotton and rice monocultures. These fail to consider the consequences for the Aral Sea or the social impact on the local population. The present tragic situation may be improved if recommendations described in the recently elaborated concepts for conservation and restoration of the Sea are taken as a blueprint for action. The Concept envisages transformation of the development strategy for the region, modernisation of the irrigation systems, afforestation and phyto-reclamation in the area. After endorsement by the Soviet legislative bodies, the proposed measures could become the core of a nation-wide government programme aiming at saving the Aral Sea and upgrading the living standards of local populations.Dr Arkady Levintanus is a geographer and senior research fellow at the Institute of Geography, Centre for International Projects, in the Ministry of Nature Utilisation and Environment Conservation in Moscow. He was recently, and when he wrote this paper, a UNEP consultant in Nairobi monitoring the project "Assistance in the preparation of an action plan for the rehabilitation of the Aral Sea".