Distributional impacts of climate change on basin communities: an integrated modeling approach

Regional Environmental Change - Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable economic sectors to the impacts of climate change, specifically those related with expected changes in water availability....     

The sensitivity of modeled ozone to the temporal distribution of point, area, and mobile source emissions in the eastern United States

Ozone remains one of the most recalcitrant air pollution problems in the US. Hourly emissions fields used in air quality models (AQMs) generally show less temporal variability than corresponding measurements from continuous emissions monitors (CEM) and field campaigns would imply. If emissions control scenarios to reduce emissions at peak ozone forming hours are to be assessed with AQMs, the effect of emissions' daily variability on modeled ozone must be understood. We analyzed the effects of altering all anthropogenic emissions' temporal distributions by source group on 2002 summer-long simulations of ozone using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) v4.5 and the Carbon Bond IV (CBIV) chemical mechanism with 12 km resolution. We find that when mobile source emissions were made constant over the course of a day, 8-h maximum ozone predictions changed by ±7 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) in many urban areas on days when ozone concentrations greater than 80 ppbv were simulated in the base case. Increasing the temporal variation of point sources resulted in ozone changes of +6 and −6 ppbv, but only for small areas near sources. Changing the daily cycle of mobile source emissions produces substantial changes in simulated ozone, especially in urban areas at night; results suggest that shifting the emissions of NO_x from day to night, for example in electric powered vehicles recharged at night, could have beneficial impacts on air quality.     

Status of the PCDD and PCDF contamination of commercial milk caused by milk cartons

Within the scope of this study, possible migration of polychlorinated dibenzodioxins and -furans (PCDDs/PCDFs) from cartons (produced using bleached cardboard) into cow's milk was investigated. Three different types of carton were examined. The milk samples were taken at different times of storage and analysed for PCDDs/PCDFs. In contrast to a similar study carried out in 1990, the I-TEQ-results of all cartons analysed may be considered very low. No significant migration of toxic (2,3,7,8-chlorine-substituted) PCDDs/PCDFs could be observed. This is due to the very low PCDD/PCDF concentrations in modern cardboards as a result of the elemental chlorine-free (ECF) bleaching processes used. As far as the milk samples are concerned, no influence of the cardboards (according to the I-TEQ data) could be ascertained. I-TEQ concentrations in milk did not noticeably change during storage times of three, six and eight days. The I-TEQ-data obtained for all milk samples was found to be in the range typical of background concentrations in cow's milk in Germany. Although 1,2,7,8-TCDF is not included in the calculation of the TEQ (no 2,3,7,8-chlorine-substitution), analysis of this congener in cardboard samples was also carried out as a matter of general interest for cardboard investigations and an indicator of pulp bleaching with free chlorine.     

Dissolved saxitoxin causes transient inhibition of sensorimotor function in larval Pacific herring (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Clupea harengus pallasi</Emphasis>)

Herring (Clupea harengus pallasi) spawning sites in Puget Sound, Washington overlap spatially and temporally with blooms of Alexandrium catenella, a toxic dinoflagellate species responsible for paralytic shellfish poisoning. Consequently, newly hatched herring larvae may be regularly exposed to the suite of dissolved paralytic shellfish toxins that are released into the water column from toxic cells during blooms. To date, virtually nothing is known about the impacts of these neurotoxins on early developmental stages of marine fish. In the present study, herring larvae at three ages, 0 days post hatch (dph), 4 dph, and 11 dph, were exposed to dissolved saxitoxin (STX) in 24-h and multi-day exposures. All larvae were examined for sensorimotor function (i.e. spontaneous swimming behavior and touch response). Significant reductions in spontaneous and touch-activated swimming behavior occurred within 1 h of exposure. EC₅₀s at 1 h of exposure were 1,500, 840, and 700 μg STX equiv. l⁻¹ for larvae introduced to STX at 0, 4, and 11 dph, respectively. This progressive age-specific increase in STX-induced paralysis suggests that older larvae were more sensitive to the toxin than younger larvae. Interestingly, herring larvae at all ages exhibited a significant degree of neurobehavioral recovery within 4–24 h of continuous exposure relative to the 1-h time point. This recovery of normal motor behaviors was not observed in previous studies with freshwater zebrafish (Danio rerio) larvae under the same continuous exposure conditions, suggesting that an adaptive detoxification or toxin sequestration mechanism may have evolved in some species of marine fish larvae. Our data reveal that (1) dissolved STX is bioavailable to marine finfish larvae, (2) the toxin is a paralytic agent with potencies that differ between developmental stages, and (3) STX-induced sensorimotor inhibition occurs rapidly but is transient in marine larvae. Collectively, these results suggest that dissolved algal toxins may have important sublethal effects on marine fish populations.     

A combined approach for the evaluation of a volatile organic compound emissions inventory

Emissions inventories significantly affect photochemical air quality model performance and the development of effective control strategies. However, there have been very few studies to evaluate their accuracy. Here, to evaluate a volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions inventory, we implemented a combined approach: comparing the ratios of carbon bond (CB)-IV VOC groups to nitrogen oxides (NOx) or carbon monoxide (CO) using an emission preprocessing model, comparing the ratios of VOC source contributions from a source apportionment technique to NOx or CO, and comparing ratios of CB-IV VOC groups to NOx or CO and the absolute concentrations of CB-IV VOC groups using an air quality model, with the corresponding ratios and concentrations observed at three sites (Maryland, Washington, DC, and New Jersey). The comparisons of the ethene/NOx ratio, the xylene group (XYL)/NOx ratio, and ethene and XYL concentrations between estimates and measurements showed some differences, depending on the comparison approach, at the Maryland and Washington, DC sites. On the other hand, consistent results at the New Jersey site were observed, implying a possible overestimation of vehicle exhaust. However, in the case of the toluene group (TOL), which is emitted mainly from surface coating and printing sources in the solvent utilization category, the ratios of TOL/ NOx or CO, as well as the absolute concentrations revealed an overestimate of these solvent sources by a factor of 1.5 to 3 at all three sites. In addition, the overestimate of these solvent sources agreed with the comparisons of surface coating and printing source contributions relative to NOx from a source apportionment technique to the corresponding value of estimates at the Maryland site. Other studies have also suggested an overestimate of solvent sources, implying a possibility of inaccurate emission factors in estimating VOC emissions from surface coating and printing sources. We tested the impact of these overestimates with a chemical transport model and found little change in ozone but substantial changes in calculated secondary organic aerosol concentrations.