基于复杂系统建模的水管理政策研究进展

基于Agent的建模方法（ABSS）通过自下而上的方式，考察系统中主体的不同状态和行为特征、主体与环境的作用、主体之间的作用，来表征系统的宏观特征，是进行复杂社会环境系统分析和政策研究的重要手段，在水资源、水环境管理系统中得到了有效的应用。本文在大量文献调研的基础上，讨论了ABSS建模方法的基本原理、主要特征、系统构成、分类方法和开发工具等特征，总结了其供水系统发展、水资源分配和流域水资源管理、农业土地和水资源利用、居民用水行为、农业污染控制及人类活动的水环境影响等方面的应用，分析了其在研究内容、研究方法、研究结果等方面的发展趋势，讨论了利用该方法研究我国水资源管理和水污染控制政策的必要性和重要性。     

A fragment constant QSAR model for evaluating the EC50 values of organic chemicals to Daphnia magna.

The quantitative relationship between the median effective concentration (EC50) of organic chemicals to Daphnia magna and the number of molecular fragments was investigated based on experimental EC50 values for 217 chemicals derived from the literature. A fragment constant model was developed based on a multivariate linear regression between the number of fragments and the logarithmically transformed reciprocal values of EC50. Functional correction factors were introduced into the model. The model was verified using an independent set of randomly selected data. The mean residual of the final model was 0.4 log-units. The robustness of the model was discussed based on the results of three jackknife tests.     

灰色协调度模型在产业用水系统分析中的应用

揭示产业用水系统的时空动态发展规律，探讨其内部的协调关系，是开展节水型社会建设规划，实现水资源可持续利用的关键。然而，目前对产业用水系统的协调性分析还缺乏较为有效的理论和方法。以往在利用协调度模型进行用水系统有序度研究时，通常采用两段叙述的线性分段函数表示，较不适用于描述产业用水系统内部要素的非线性结构。因此，针对产业用水系统的特性，利用灰关联原理建立有序度函数，以建立更适于用水系统分析的灰色协调度模型。利用该模型对上海市1997~2005年产业用水系统进行实证研究，结果显示：上海市产业用水系统基本有序，发展比较协调，其用水综合效益较大，但距离最优状态尚有潜力可挖；其中，农业用水子系统的发展较为欠缺，在未来用水规划中应予以重视。     

Prenatal diagnosis of congenital cystic adenomatoid malformation of the lung by fetal lung biopsy

A case of type III congenital cystic adenomatoid malformation of the lung was successfully diagnosed prenatally by fetal lung biopsy. We performed this procedure at 22 weeks of gestation, using a biopsy gun system under ultrasound guidance. The pregnancy was undisturbed by the procedure but as the condition was incompatible with life, an abortion was performed. The diagnosis was confirmed at post-mortem examination. Fetal lung biopsy appears to be a useful method for prenatal diagnosis of fetal lung disorders.     

广州轨道交通三号线高速行驶条件下对安全限界的影响研究

给出了轨道交通车辆横向偏移量的计算方法 ,并应用列车 -线路动力耦合模型 ,分析了广州地铁三号线的安全限界变化问题。确定了当前按 80km/h行车速度设计的建筑限界能满足 13 0km/h行车速度的要求 ,限界尺寸不需改动可保证列车运行安全平稳     

湖北省土地资源遥感调查与评价

根据1999年TM影像解译了湖北省土地利用现状，然后以土地利用现状图为基础，采用地理信息系统技术，结合湖北省的实际情况，选择土壤、地形、坡度等评价因子，对湖北省土地资源进行了适宜性评价，简要地将全省土地资源划分为九等。评价结果表明：湖北省水热条件好，土地适宜性广，宜农林牧业同时利用的土地广泛分布；但是该省的基本农田面积小，土地垦殖率高，低产田面积大，后备耕地资源严重不足；土地利用结构与土地资源的供给条件、利用要求不相适宜，利用效益末得到充分发挥。     

Metabolic response under different salinity and temperature conditions for glass eel Anguilla japonica

Diadromous fish often enter freshwater directly from seawater via fish ladders or channels built in estuarine dams. The oxygen consumption rates (OCR) of glass eel, Anguilla japonica, were determined using an automatic intermittent flow respirometer under various salinity and temperature regimes to physiologically explain this direct movement. The endogenous rhythm of the OCR in wild glass eels, freshly collected from estuaries, was nearly synchronous with the tidal pattern at the estuarine collection site. When the salinity was changed from 20 psu (12°C) at a constant temperature to that of freshwater, the OCR of the glass eels decreased by 21.6±7.0% (mean ± SD) (P<0.05), showing a dampened rhythm for about 48 h. After this period of impediment, the glass eels resumed normal metabolic activity. Direct migration from seawater to freshwater under constant temperature would result in a severe physiological stress for these glass eels for about two days. When the glass eels were exposed to a cyclic change in water temperature of 2°C 26 h⁻¹, as they encounter in estuaries, and then were introduced to freshwater abruptly, the OCR rhythm corresponded to the cyclic changes in water temperature after exposure to freshwater. Under these conditions, the mean OCR of the glass eels had a small difference before and after exposure to freshwater. These data explained how glass eels can directly move from sea water into the freshwater without any apparent metabolic stress in the estuaries showing cyclic change in water temperature (Δt=2°C).     

Initial ecological risk assessment of eight selected human pharmaceuticals in Japan.

Eight pharmaceuticals were selected on the basis of their domestic consumption in Japan, the excretion ratio of the parent compound and the frequency of detection in the aquatic environment or wastewater treatment plant effluent. Toxicity tests on these pharmaceuticals were conducted using Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes), daphnia (Daphnia magna), and green algae (Psuedokirchneriella subcapitata). Predicted no effect concentration (PNEC) was calculated using lethal or effect concentration 50 (LC50 or EC50) values and no effect concentration (NOEC) obtained in the toxicity tests for these compounds. Predicted environmental concentration (PEC) was also calculated from annual consumption, the excretion rate of the parent compound, and removal rate in the preliminary batch activated sludge treatment performed in this study. Maximum concentrations found in the aquatic environment or sewage effluent in Japan or foreign countries were also used for another calculation of PEC. Initial risk assessment on the selected pharmaceuticals was performed using the PEC/PNEC ratio. The results of initial risk assessment on the eight selected pharmaceuticals suggest neither urgent nor severe concern for the ecological risk of these compounds, but further study needs to be conducted using chronic toxicity tests, including reproduction inhibition and endocrine disruption assessments.     

草原旅游发展中旅游管理部门环境意识的调查研究

根据环境意识结构．设计了旅游管理部门环境意识调查问卷。其主要的指标体系包括：旅游环境知识水平、旅游环境态度、旅游环境评价和旅游环境行为四个方面。对指标体系各部分之间以及每一指标部分的每一题目之间的相对重要性进行权重的确定．而且对各部分的每道题目的各个选项予以赋分。基于权重和赋分．结合调查问卷的实际情况，设计了指标体系各部分评价模型和环境意识总体评价模型。以此来计算草原旅游发展中旅游管理部门环境意识水平的综合得分。经过分析得知，旅游管理部门环境意识模式是“环境知识制约型”模式。     

Structural Adjustment of Oasis Agriculture in Xinjiang

As a special basic economic region in China, Xinjiang is situated in the arid area in the Northwest China. Oasis agriculture is the basis of the national economy. The development of oasis agriculture helps to accelerate the development of economy, social and environment. After 50 years of practice, from 1949 to 2002, oasis agriculture in Xinjiang enhanced rapidly the scale of agricultural industry and had great changes in its structure. The amount of cultivated area rose from 120.97*102 ha t…