科学的挑战--重视成本效益,清洁波罗的海

波罗的海是世界上受人类活动影响最严重的海洋之一,虽然有减少向波罗的海排放营养物质的国际协议,但迄今为止采取的措施,既没有从根本上减少营养物质的排放,也没有促进环境的改善.部分原因可以归咎为缺少有关物理学、生物地球化学和生态特性之间大尺度关系和相互作用的知识,但是还缺少全流域范围的成本效益分析.错误的决策非常危险,例如,执行的减少排放的方案根本没有效果,或远远达不到成本效益.许多学科的研究者正面临着一个共同的挑战开发一个决策支持系统,作为整个波罗的海成本效益分析法的科学基础.研究项目海洋富营养化的研究(MARE)(http∥www.mare.su.se)正致力于这方面的研究.     

A reflection on four impactful Ambio papers: The biotic perspective: This article belongs to Ambio’s 50th Anniversary Collection. Theme: Climate change impacts

Climate change represents one of the most pressing societal and scientific challenges of our time. While much of the current research on climate change focuses on future prediction, some of the strongest signals of warming can already be seen in Arctic and alpine areas, where temperatures are rising faster than the global average, and in the oceans, where the combination of rising temperatures and acidification due to increased CO₂ concentrations has had catastrophic consequences for sensitive marine organisms inhabiting coral reefs. The scientific papers highlighted as part of this anniversary issue represent some of the most impactful advances in our understanding of the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we reflect on the legacy of these papers from the biotic perspective.     

Management options and effects on a marine ecosystem: assessing the future of the Baltic

We are using the coupled models in a decision support system, Nest, to evaluate the response of the marine ecosystem to changes in external loads through various management options. The models address all the seven major marine basins and the entire drainage basin of the Baltic Sea. A series of future scenarios have been developed, in close collaboration with the Helsinki Commission, to see the possible effects of improved wastewater treatment and manure handling, phosphorus-free detergents, and less intensive land use and live stocks. Improved wastewater treatment and the use of phosphorus-free detergents in the entire region would drastically decrease phosphorus loads and improve the marine environment, particularly the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms. However, the Baltic Sea will remain eutrophic, and to reduce other effects, a substantial reduction of nitrogen emissions must be implemented. This can only be obtained in these scenarios by drastically changing land use. In a final scenario, we have turned 50% of all agricultural lands into grasslands, together with efficient wastewater treatments and a ban of phosphorus in detergents. This scenario will substantially reduce primary production and the extension of hypoxic bottoms, increase water transparency in the most eutrophied basins, and virtually eliminate extensive cyanobacterial blooms.     

Reduction of Baltic Sea Nutrient Inputs and Allocation of Abatement Costs Within the Baltic Sea Catchment

The Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) requires tools to simulate effects and costs of various nutrient abatement strategies. Hierarchically connected databases and models of the entire catchment have been created to allow decision makers to view scenarios via the decision support system NEST. Increased intensity in agriculture in transient countries would result in increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, particularly from Poland, the Baltic States, and Russia. Nutrient retentions are high, which means that the nutrient reduction goals of 135 000 tons N and 15 000 tons P, as formulated in the BSAP from 2007, correspond to a reduction in nutrient loadings to watersheds by 675 000 tons N and 158 000 tons P. A cost-minimization model was used to allocate nutrient reductions to measures and countries where the costs for reducing loads are low. The minimum annual cost to meet BSAP basin targets is estimated to 4.7 billion €.     

Impact of temperature and species interaction on filamentous cyanobacteria may be more important than salinity and increased pCO2 levels

A future business-as-usual scenario (A1FI) was tested on two bloom-forming cyanobacteria of the Baltic Proper, Nodularia spumigena and Aphanizomenon sp., growing separately and together. The projected scenario was tested in two laboratory experiments where (a) interactive effects of increased temperature and decreased salinity and (b) interactive effects of increased temperature and elevated levels of pCO₂ were tested. Increased temperature, from 12 to 16 °C, had a positive effect on the biovolume and photosynthetic activity (F _v/F _m) of both species. Compared when growing separately, the biovolume of each species was lower when grown together. Decreased salinity, from 7 to 4, and elevated levels of pCO₂, from 380 to 960 ppm, had no effect on the biovolume, but on F _v/F _m of N. spumigena with higher F _v/F _m in salinity 7. Our results suggest that the projected A1FI scenario might be beneficial for the two species dominating the extensive summer blooms in the Baltic Proper. However, our results further stress the importance of studying interactions between species.     

Does lipophilicity of toxic compounds determine effects on drought tolerance of the soil collembolan Folsomia candida?

The ability of Collembola to survive drought stress is crucial for their distribution in the terrestrial environment. Previous studies have suggested that several toxic compounds affect the drought tolerance of Folsomia candida in a synergistic manner and that these compounds have the feature in common that they elicit their toxicity by causing membrane damage. We hypothesised that the detrimental effect of toxic chemicals on drought tolerance in F. candida depends on the lipophilicity (log K(ow)) of the compound because a higher log K(ow) would mean a closer interaction with membranes. In this study the three chemicals 4-nonylphenol, pyrene and p,p'-DDE were tested. Surprisingly, 4-nonylphenol, with the lowest log K(ow), was the most potent with respect to reducing drought tolerance followed by pyrene, suggesting that interactions between drought tolerance and chemical stress do not depend on lipophilicity alone.     

Twenty-five years of biomonitoring lead in the Frankfurt/Main area

The present study is an example of the historical monitoring of heavy metals. The specific question it aims to explore is: to what extent has the lead content of selected organisms used for biomonitoring in Frankfurt/Main—one of the cities in Germany most heavily affected by automobile traffic—changed as a result of legislation on leaded gasoline?

Data on the lead content of the moss speciesBryum argenteum Hedw. from the years 1974, 1975 and 1978 and data on the lead content of the outer bark of the ash speciesFraxinus excelsior L. from 1973 served as the basis for the repeated measurements. Remeasurement was successful in 76.5% (i.e. 124 trees at 26 growth sites). The study produced the following results:

• ? As was expected, the lead content of the short-term accumulatorBryum argenteum Hedw. was distinctly lowered with a decreasing particulate lead concentration. However, the reduction factor varied greatly between the different growth sites.
• ? On the other hand, the lead content measured in the outer bark layers ofFraxinus excelsior L. has risen markedly during the past two decades. Whereas in 1973 nearly all trees examined displayed very low concentrations of lead (< 38 ppm), only 9.5% were still in this category in 1997 and nearly 30% exhibited high or even unacceptable lead concentrations (< 150 ppm → > 225 ppm). Various factors have to be taken into account to explain this increase. First of all, bark is a long-term accumulator for heavy metals like lead and its enrichment capacity could have increased as the surface becomes rougher over time. Furthermore, lead is most probably leached out of the bark to a lesser degree now than in the 1970s, owing to the reduced concentration of sulphuric acid in the rain. The dramatic growth of automobile traffic in the Frankfurt/Main area during the period covered by the study undoubtedly plays an important role as well.

     

Risk assessment and prioritisation of contaminated sites on the catchment scale

Contaminated sites pose a significant threat to groundwater resources worldwide. Due to limited available resources a risk-based prioritisation of the remediation efforts is essential. Existing risk assessment tools are unsuitable for this purpose, because they consider each contaminated site separately and on a local scale, which makes it difficult to compare the impact from different sites. Hence a modelling tool for risk assessment of contaminated sites on the catchment scale has been developed. The CatchRisk screening tool evaluates the risk associated with each site in terms of its ability to contaminate abstracted groundwater in the catchment. The tool considers both the local scale and the catchment scale. At the local scale, a flexible, site specific leaching model that can be adjusted to the actual data availability is used to estimate the mass flux over time from identified sites. At the catchment scale, a transport model that utilises the source flux and a groundwater model covering the catchment is used to estimate the transient impact on the supply well. The CatchRisk model was tested on a groundwater catchment for a waterworks north of Copenhagen, Denmark. Even though data scarcity limited the application of the model, the sites that most likely caused the observed contamination at the waterworks were identified. The method was found to be valuable as a basis for prioritising point sources according to their impact on groundwater quality. The tool can also be used as a framework for testing hypotheses on the origin of contamination in the catchment and for identification of unknown contaminant sources.