Study on Middle and Short Term Forecast and Assessment Technology on Atmosphere Hydrosphere Disasters

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International Strategy for Disaster Reduction in China

1Background of ISDRSince man appeared on the planet,various natural disasters such as flood,drought,earthquake,typhoon,volcano and so on have been a constant threat to the existence and development of themankind.Itis through long-standing struggle with the disasters thatthe human race has survivedand evolved.In this sense,the human history is a history of human beings fighting againstdisasters.In the long history,human beings have combated disasters in a more and more organized way,from indi…     

我国降水的时空变化与暴雨洪涝灾害

本文论述与降水的时空变化相联系的我国暴雨洪涝灾害的主要特征。我国受东亚季风影响明显,暴雨活动频繁。各地的降水分布极不均匀。暴雨（降水）活动具有明显的年代际变化、年际变化、季节性变化和季节内振荡。与之相对应的暴雨洪涝灾害也具有以上的时空变化特征。我国东南部沿海地区受两种不同性质的降水天气——非台风暴雨和台风暴雨的影响,而各沿海省（区）由两者造成的洪涝灾害程度大小也不同。华南地区后汛期中的暴雨洪涝灾害比前汛期的严重。湖南省的降水一年中具有两个峰值,所造成的洪涝灾害也有两个季节性极大值点。     

International Strategy of Disaster Reduction (ISDR) and Integrated Disaster Reduction in China

At the beginning of the 21st century, while we are recalling the glorious achievements and progress mankind has achieved in the last century, we can not help thinking about the catastrophic wars, natural disasters and epidemic diseases that have caused serious impacts and damages to humanity. In order to achieve peaceful existence and rapid development in the new century, we must prevent and reduce such risks. In terms of sustainable socio-economic development, the 20th century has witnessed s…     

灰色拓扑预测理论在暴雨洪涝灾害预测中的应用

本文应用灰色理论中拓扑预测的理论方法对长江中下游地区未来几年的水灾状况作了预测试验。